Although the struggle over the transition to the White House is regularly fraught with many upheavals and changes, it is already possible this morning, exactly one year to Election Day, to identify several characteristic lines regarding its character and the trends that have emerged so far.
In connection with the Democratic Party, whose leader Biden currently occupies the Oval Office, one central anomaly stands out, which finds expression in the substantial gap that exists between the president's achievements and his public image. On the executive level, despite the deep ideological, cultural, and political rift that separates the two parties today, the president succeeded in passing a series of groundbreaking legislative initiatives in the divided Congress, mainly related to the dramatic rehabilitation of infrastructure and urban centers, thereby laying the foundation for a comprehensive physical, technological, and social upgrade in the quality of life of the nation.
Reuters
The 46th president also succeeded in advancing legislation on core issues such as the environment, COVID-<> control, and steering the economy on a path of recovery and growth.
In the foreign policy sphere as well, the American president demonstrated determination and adherence to the goal. These are both the generous military aid packages he has provided to Ukraine since the Russian invasion began, and his successful efforts to strengthen NATO, and his inspired stand by Israel (both morally and in terms of the scope of military aid and its unwavering commitment to its security) in the face of the blow to it from the murderous and barbaric habitat of the axis of darkness and evil.
Biden 'lacks vitality'
While it is true that the panicked withdrawal of U.S. forces from Afghanistan in August 2021 was a jarring exception to this pattern of visionary leadership initiatives, it did not cloud the overall picture of effective conduct, which bore fruit. Paradoxically, however, despite these achievements, Biden continues to lag in opinion polls against his likely opponent, Donald Trump, and most of the "electorate" is dissatisfied with his performance. The reason for this gap is clear: The White House is not adequately appreciated by the public for its performance because the president is portrayed as lacking sufficient vitality and not appearing energetic enough to lead Uncle Sam's country in the face of the challenges awaiting it at home and abroad (especially from the hostile, challenging Chinese-Russian-Iranian axis, which challenges the American era).
While Biden remains perfectly sharp and coherent about his positions, goals and priorities, the fragile and tired image he projects in his public appearances worries many voting groups. In three weeks, Biden will turn 81, and it will indeed be a weighty task to continue running the world for another term (whatever his hive composition).
The fact that Vice President Kamala Harris has not demonstrated impressive leadership skills further exacerbates the plight of traditional Democratic audiences. Under these circumstances, if elected, Biden will return to the White House as an exhausted and lame duck.
In the Republican camp, Trump's advantage over the entire contender for the coveted nomination ticket stands out. The impression is that Trump continues to appeal primarily to his traditional target audience, made up of whites, mostly blue-collar and college-educated, with blatantly populist and anti-establishment messages. This tactic, which was key to his victory in the 2016 elections, is also being accompanied this time by an attempt to penetrate Latino voters, many of whom are conservative and religious. He hopes that his sweeping mobilization for the blue-collar class (along with a significant segment of the evangelical vote, and possibly Latinos) will bring him victory on November 5, 2024.
While Trump's victory in the Republican primary seems assured at this point, one cannot ignore Nikki Haley's recent rapid rise in the polls, who is increasingly portrayed as an impressive, articulate, thorough and experienced candidate. Even if she fails to directly threaten Trump's candidacy, she could be the ideal vice presidential candidate, which could open up an important path for Trump (many of whose past statements and supporters were tainted with racism) an important path to rehabilitating relations with minority communities. Nor should we ignore Trump's complex legal situation, which can be an increasingly heavy burden.
In summary, a year before the decision, a thick fog still enveloped the race field. What is emerging today is that a battle is expected between two older candidates (Trump is 77), whose weaknesses regarding their public image – though not related to their actions (Biden) or their capricious, blunt and populist style of conduct (Trump) – stand out from afar.
The writer is Professor Emeritus at the Department of Political Science at the University of Haifa, and winner of the Israel Prize in the field of political science, management sciences and international relations for 2020/20
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