Against the backdrop of the 31st day of the war in Gaza, Israel and Hamas are approaching the point where either side will have to withdraw from the red lines it has set for itself.
Israel defined that the operation in the Gaza Strip would continue until Hamas' military-terrorist wing was defeated, and until the organization was stripped of its governmental capabilities in the Gaza Strip. It also made it clear that it would not allow a humanitarian ceasefire until there was real progress on the issue of the abductees, and that it would prevent the entry of fuel into the Gaza Strip in an attempt to harm Hamas' operational system and force it out of the underground tunnels.
Hamas has set itself opposite goals: military and governmental survival, and using its two main bargaining chips – the abductees and Palestinian civilians in Gaza – to ensure this. Therefore, it is delaying any progress in the negotiations for the release of hostages, and therefore it is also trying to disrupt the passage of civilians southward, and continues to rely on Gaza hospitals for shelter.
IDF forces' activity in the Gaza Strip // Photo: IDF Spokesperson
The completion of the encirclement of Gaza City, combined with the airstrikes, increases the pressure on Hamas. Although the IDF is still far from achieving the strategic objectives of the operation, it consistently bites into Gaza's thick protective shell and systematically harms Hamas' operational systems. It can be assumed that yesterday's criminalization of the hospitals in the Gaza Strip by the IDF Spokesperson was intended to prepare world public opinion for the possibility of activity within or near them. At the same time, Israel is feverishly negotiating the establishment of makeshift hospitals near the Egyptian border, so that wounded Palestinians from Gaza can be transported there.
On the other hand, the continuation of the operation increases international pressure on Israel and intensifies demands, including from the United States, to ease the blockade and allow humanitarian aid into Gaza. Israel may agree to specific and non-sweeping solutions (a truce rather than a ceasefire), but will try to include within them a certain solution to the issue of the abductees. Jerusalem knows that this is a game for time, and hopes that the balance of achievements and pressure on the population will push Sinwar into a corner and make it possible to extract achievements from him.
IDF soldiers inside the Gaza Strip, photo: IDF Spokesperson
On the tactical-operational level, Israel has the upper hand so far. The operation in Gaza is progressing as planned, and is expected to accumulate additional achievements as it deepens. Those who expected a lightning operation lived in isolation from this battlefield. The IDF faces unprecedented challenges, but if it receives time and backing, it will bring results.
At the same time, the IDF manages to maintain the northern sector on low fire. Yesterday was indeed a day full of incidents of anti-tank missiles and rockets (including a civilian fatality), but in the meantime, Hezbollah has been careful not to intensify its attacks, so as not to deepen the damage to it. Perhaps his dilemma will intensify as the IDF gets closer to the core of Hamas in Gaza, and he will have to decide whether it is worth destroying Lebanon for the sake of solidarity with Gaza.
IDF forces in the Gaza Strip,
Between the state and politics
Judea and Samaria is also under control for the time being, although the defense establishment warns of a possible outbreak due to the economic crisis (140,100 workers who do not go to work in Israel, and another <>,<> Palestinian Authority officials who do not receive salaries because of the delay in transferring the funds), and the increase in violence by elements on the extreme right. The proposal by MK Zvi Sukkot – who was abjectly appointed to head the subcommittee of Foreign Affairs and Defense that deals with Judea and Samaria – to stop the olive harvest is liable to set the area on fire, which will confine additional forces to the West Bank and complicate the operation in Gaza.
But even if the IDF persists in these achievements in the coming days and succeeds in preventing an outbreak in other arenas, Israel will be left with strategic dilemmas: how to solve the issue of the abductees and bring all 242 Israelis home, how to maintain legitimacy that will enable the operation to continue until its full objectives are achieved, and what future Israel seeks for itself vis-à-vis the Gaza Strip.
All of these must be discussed and decided today. As part of this, Israel is required to clean up unnecessary mines that interfere with its path, headed by ministers who sprinkle dangerous nonsense that harms the war effort. This may damage the coalition fabric, but it will help the more important campaign against Hamas: in the competition between the state and politics, the state is growing.
Hamas terrorists on their way to Israel, October 7, photo: AFP.
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