The outline of the deal as published in recent hours corresponds in one way or another with similar outlines published over the past week, but the details of the deal are not the heart of the matter. Three or five days of ceasefire doesn't really change the equation; what stands behind the demands of the parties is the interests, the essence.
IDF Chief of Staff local_movies with Reservists Inside the Gaza Strip: "The Maneuver Creates Better Conditions for the Return of the Abductees" | IDF Spokesperson
Let's start with Israel's interests. If there is an issue on which there is an absolute consensus among the people and decision makers, from across the political spectrum, it is the sincere and genuine desire to see all the abductees at home as soon as possible. That's the base point. But the equation of "everyone for everyone" does not stand the test of execution because of the chaotic reality, full of factors and "tables" of negotiations that take place simultaneously. There is no single entity that physically holds all the abductees, and not all those who hold them have the same interests.
The State of Israel has many arenas to manage, internally vis-à-vis the families and the entire nation, and externally vis-à-vis the many countries of the world that are involved in one way or another in negotiations, as a party or mediator.
Protest and rainbow display, calling for the return of the abductees, photo: Coco
The Israeli dilemma is well known and complex. A ground maneuver, however successful, cannot be complete and lead to the "destruction of Hamas" with 240 Israeli abductees on or below the ground, including children, babies, adults and the sick. On the other hand, 240 abductees are Hamas' breathing air, air they will not give up so easily.
A long, exhausting and draining process
Unlike past deals, more or less successful, in this case there is no single signature by which all the abductees return home and the fighting ends. In these negotiations there are Hamas, Jihad, the clans and others involved, who are also negotiating. Add to this the many countries with many interests, and we have a long, exhausting and extortionate process. Of course for the families, but also for the entire nation.
In the current reality, with the change in impossible rhythms, the State of Israel must act heel to thumb. The cabinet must make decisions every hour in accordance with the endless developments in the many arenas and in accordance with the successes of the fighting in the Gaza Strip and in the north. The decision that was right for Sunday morning is not necessarily the right one at noon that day. This is the real challenge for the country's leaders.
"Hamas' goal is to sow fear and terror," Photo: Yossi Zeliger
And what about Hamas? What does he want? In my understanding, Hamas has been getting exactly what it wants since 7/10 – sowing fear and terror, continuing negotiations for the sake of the process itself, along with periodic ceasefires, talks with senior officials from a variety of countries who until now did not know where Gaza was on the map, released prisoners, fuel and a new position vis-à-vis Israel. Unfortunately, they have a lot to trade. The perception that the severe military blow currently being inflicted on Gaza has put Hamas at a disadvantage is a mistaken conception in understanding the organization and its motives.
Hamas is realizing its interests at this moment.
There are no prophets among us and no one knows what the deal will lead to, whoever conducts the Israeli negotiations and dilemmas in the closed room does not speak in terms of right or wrong, but rather in optimizing the terrible situation we find ourselves in.
I believe that a really good deal is one that will make it clear to the other side that we know how to speak the local language, one that will maximize Israel's interest in bringing the abductees home and will serve as the basis for a solution the day after, one that has not been raised in the past, as was said out-of-the-box solution.
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