Extending the respite by two more days is welcome. Israel will be able to bring home 20 more abductees, thereby advancing one of the two main objectives of the operation. The return to fighting will indeed be delayed, but the senior political-security echelon is united in its opinion that this is a reasonable price in the face of the return.
Nahal Brigade fighters fighting on the outskirts of Jabaliya // IDF Spokesperson
In recent days there have been claims attributed to senior IDF officials, according to which the truce was a mistake and that the fighting should have continued. This is a legitimate opinion, but it does not rest on senior officials whose opinion carries any weight. The chief of staff, the head of the Shin Bet and the relevant officials around them clearly supported the truce, as well as its extension yesterday. The chief of staff also explicitly said that the IDF will know how to absorb the price of containment and return to fight successfully when it ends.
It is likely that Israel will agree to extend the lull by additional days, if as a result it is possible to return more abductees. The ground operation did push Hamas into a corner and promote a lull in the fighting, but there is no basis for the claim that the abductees could have been returned. Since the beginning of the campaign, Israel has managed to reach two bodies of abductees and only one live abductee (Uri Magidish), despite the enormous efforts invested in the issue.
The first with Yoni, Raz and Aviv's father and Doron's husband, photo: Schneider
In fact, while the public hope is that the operation will enable the release of additional abductees by the IDF, the concern among decision makers is that deepening the damage to Hamas could endanger their lives. Sinwar has already proven that he has no inhibitions: he will not hesitate to execute hostages if he thinks it will help stop the campaign. Therefore, in the tension between fighting and respite, the decision was in favor of a lull in order to release as many abductees as possible.
When the truce ends, Israel will return to fighting. It is in her hands, and President Biden also backed her yesterday (again) when he spoke about the need to remove Hamas rule in Gaza. The balance of power displayed in the ground fighting so far should make it clear to all skeptics that there are no question marks about who is stronger and who will win: If Israel decides to go all the way and fulfill its commitment to defeat Hamas, it will do so.
Hamas in a precarious state
The truce does give Hamas time to regroup, but it does not dramatically change the balance of power on the ground. It is reasonable to assume that he is using these days to move forces to weak points, mainly to strengthen the defenses around his strongholds that have not yet been occupied in Gaza City (Jabaliya, Sejaiya, Tufah) and in the southern Gaza Strip, and to stock up on food, water, and fuel that will enable him to spend more time in the tunnels.
Jabaliya neighborhood after IDF attacks,
Hamas' precarious situation could be seen from testimonies given by the abductees who were released. They talked about food that had been given sparingly in recent days, and about the lack of medicines and showers and basic hygiene needs. This is another reason to act for their speedy release, knowing that every day in captivity endangers their health and lives.
It would have been desirable for these testimonies to be published around the world, so that they would know how Hamas treats civilians on captivity. Instead of licking at Elon Musk, the Israeli government should do real advocacy. Musk doesn't like Israel: He proved it with his behavior after Black Sabbath, and he won't change his ways now. There is only one important thing in his world – Elon Musk – and the right way is to scare him with economic damage, as a host of major advertisers did after his social network, X, was used to spread antisemitic and racist content. There are enough wealthy Jews in the world who can do this: it will be in return for commemorating Black Sabbath and its casualties, and for fighting Israel-haters around the world.
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