At the moment of truth, Benjamin Netanyahu understands that he must return to Bayes. The unity government will not protect him. Not Gantz, not Eisenkot, and despite the recent signs of rapprochement, it is not certain that neither Saar nor Elkin will either. The original coalition's 64 seats are his only real support. Protests could rage outside and studios would go out of their way to oust him. The bottom line is that whoever holds most of the fingers in the Knesset will survive.
In recent days, the prime minister has been doing everything in his power to return to the basics, to the natural partners, to the full-fledged right-wing coalition. Gantz is waging the war with him in the small cabinet, but his political fate lies in the hands of those who were expelled: Smotrich and Ben-Gvir. But the condition for their support is clear – to win the war to the end.
Just last week, Netanyahu managed to go on a high-profile tour with Ben-Gvir at the Sderot police station, stand alongside Smotrich in his fight against the spin of coalition funds, and publicly fight for the status of ultra-Orthodox teachers, while supporting the demand to approve the salary increases that Benny Gantz demanded to cut. If there is a major and unequivocal victory over Hamas and a change in the reality in the Gaza Strip, chances are that the prime minister will be able to get the support of Smotrich and Ben-Gvir, fend off attempts to impeach or bring forward the elections.
But when the protests rage outside, the first to break could be Likud members. During the struggle over the legal reform, the ruling party's Knesset members did not demonstrate a high level of resilience. The demonstrations after the war will be nothing compared to them. On both the right and the left, all those who demand and demand that those responsible pay the public price required after such an event will not let the failure of Simchat Torah pass through their hands without at least bringing forward the elections. There is no guarantee that one hundred percent of Likud members in the Knesset will support Netanyahu wherever he goes. If anything, on the contrary - this is unlikely to happen. Yoav Galant, Nir Barkat, David Bitan, Eliyahu Dellal and perhaps Yuli Edelstein have no particular interest in keeping Netanyahu. Hence, the road to dismantling the coalition of 64 will be paved.
Therefore, alongside his investment in the heads of the coalition parties, Netanyahu devotes quite a bit of his time, mainly in his Knesset office, to intensive meetings with Likud ministers and MKs. Everyone gets a time allowance according to their interests: the sure supporters and the burnt out fans get a few minutes. The hard nuts can last as long as an hour or more.
Which flag will remain
The discourse of the "disaster of the Oslo Accords" and the rejection of the two-state solution did not emerge into the world in a vacuum. In the political system, in the opposition, and among some Likud members, there is no doubt that Netanyahu is engaged in an aggressive campaign thinking about the day after. Not necessarily in Gaza, but in the Knesset. While those close to the prime minister insist that these are not political statements, but rather a demarcation of borders to pressure from the United States, Netanyahu is opening another front: with the defense establishment and with the other ministers in the war cabinet.
In recent days, senior officials involved in the conduct of the war presented Netanyahu with a picture of the situation according to which the IDF will not be able to complete the mission and move on to the next stage, without discussing and determining where to go the day after. This position is shared by ministers in the War Cabinet, who demand that Netanyahu not only reject the solutions that the Americans are trying to dictate, but determine Israeli policy. For the time being, the prime minister has avoided answering the issue and refuses to schedule a discussion on the question of the day after.
GPO
As the days go by, the defense establishment is stepping up its tone towards Netanyahu, claiming that a stagnation in this sector may also lead to a stagnation in the fighting. "The army will not be able to move on to phase three of the war without already knowing what the plans are for phase four," one of the sources said. According to the cabinet's decision, the third phase of the fighting includes suppressing pockets of resistance through raids by brigades and, if necessary, divisions, from the border line where the IDF will be stationed, continued destruction of infrastructure, and an attempt to bring about additional abductee deals. In the fourth stage, the IDF is supposed to transfer civilian control to somebody, assuming that Israel does not continue to hold the territory.
However, the army is already demanding to know who the official is, and to plan coordination with him even before the new IDF positions on the Gaza border, and perhaps even within it, are determined. This view is shared by Ministers Yoav Galant, Benny Gantz and Gadi Eisenkot, members of the War Cabinet.
Despite the pressure, both from President Joe Biden and the US administration, as well as from the IDF and his war cabinet ministers, Netanyahu does not schedule a discussion on the issue, preferring to voice his opinion against the two-state solution and against the PA's control of Gaza, without anyone knowing what Israel's plans are after the collapse of Hamas in the Gaza Strip.
But the truth is that Netanyahu is not alone. The other members of the war cabinet, mainly Benny Gantz and Gadi Eisenkot, also refuse to say what their position is on the day after. Behind closed doors, they demand that the prime minister discuss the issue, but outwardly, they fill their mouths with water. Those who prided themselves on their support for the two-state solution, including Oslo and the disengagement, are now silent. And for good reason. Public sentiment is against these solutions, especially after October 7.
The Israeli public, for the most part, does not want to hear about withdrawing from Gaza and transferring control to another party. The soldiers in the field, who are waging bloody battles in the Gaza Strip and sticking Israeli flags at every intersection and corner, and this week hundreds of menorahs, do not expect anyone to come and tell them to fold up and go home, and that the blue and white flags will be replaced by PLO flags again. Not a regular PLO and not an upgraded PLO. Gantz, who draws his power quite a bit from the centrist public, and even the right, does not want to spoil himself. Why should he? So he keeps his mouth shut, even though the position of the person who hosted Abbas in his living room is known to all.
The PA doesn't, but what does?
According to those who believe that Netanyahu is now pursuing a political campaign policy for all intents and purposes, this is exactly the difference he seeks to clarify – Oslo, yes or no. He is on one side, Gantz on the other. He will prevent the next Oslo, Gantz will bring him. The question of failure and responsibility for the greatest disaster that has happened to the country is less relevant. In this respect, there is no difference between Netanyahu and Gantz. Both believed the same about Gaza before October 7. You can't accuse Netanyahu of a wrong conception without putting Gantz in the same cauldron – at least that's what he believes.
The real big question is who will prevent the next disaster. The one who denies the entry of the anti-Semitic and inciting authority into Gaza, or the one who will roll out the red carpet all the way to the Gaza Strip.
Sources close to the prime minister reject the claim that Netanyahu is campaigning, explaining that in addition to the clear political need to ward off the incessant pressure from America, there is also an operational need here. According to this approach, it is impossible to formulate a plan for the day after without seeing how the fighting is progressing and what its developments are.
Katz conveys confidence that the rotation with Eli Cohen will take place and he will move to the Foreign Ministry. He increases his media presence, backs the prime minister and presents plans for the future that are remarkably similar to those Netanyahu presents in his appearances
War - many good people have said in the past - is the realm of chaos. It is impossible to plan in advance what a day child is. Will all Gazans remain in Gaza? Will the population of the Gaza Strip dwindle significantly – despite Egyptian opposition to the spillover of refugees into its territory, an opposition that has already filled cracks in the meantime? How long will the IDF be forced to physically remain inside Gaza and establish military camps inside it to ensure quiet and continued counterterrorism activities? What will be the size of the buffer zone? Will Arab settlement in the northern Gaza Strip be renewed? These are all questions that, as long as they are not answered, cannot really discuss the question of the day after.
In recent days, the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee has challenged the political and military echelons on the matter. What to do if the authority ceases to be an option. Not because that's how Israel decided, but because that's how the Arabs decided. What other options does the IDF have, in security coordination in Judea and Samaria, control of the Gaza Strip, and so on?
The IDF had no answers. It turns out that neither the defense establishment nor the National Security Council have a good answer to the question of terminating the PA's existence. Many plans can be hatched about a proper Arab leadership that will come to rule Gaza, or Judea and Samaria after Abbas. But the only honest answer at the moment is that there is none. There simply isn't. The words about "upgraded authority", "permission in a different format" and the like - have no cover.
Rotation in standby
In two weeks, the rotation between Eli Cohen and Israel Katz is scheduled to take place in the Ministry of Infrastructure and Energy and the Foreign Ministry. According to the agreement, Katz is supposed to enter the Foreign Ministry for two years, during which time Cohen will take over as Minister of Infrastructure and Energy. In normal times, neither side had reason to think that the rotation would not take place. But the war is devouring their cards.
So far, Netanyahu has not said a word or a half to either of the two on the rotation issue. The change of ministries is not done automatically - the government has to approve the appointments, as does the Knesset. For the rotation to take place, the wheels need to start moving in the coming days. Enter the government's agenda, and then the plenum. But nothing is happening so far.
Katz conveys confidence that the rotation will take place. His standing in the Likud is strong. The prime minister has no reason to break the agreement with him. At the same time, Katz does not rely only on luck and increases his media presence, especially on foreign policy issues. Backs the prime minister in every move, makes sure to give him credit for withstanding world pressure, and presents plans for the future that are remarkably similar to those Netanyahu presents in his media appearances.
Cohen is not interested in leaving the position. He, too, has stepped up his activity and presence in recent weeks, becoming perhaps the most active foreign minister in recent decades, especially during a crisis of war. But he knows that if Netanyahu decides to maintain the rotation and transfer it to the Ministry of Infrastructure, he has no real reason to oppose. After all, this was agreed with him from the outset. The only thing that still gives him hope is war.
According to the summary in the formation of the emergency government, there are no senior appointments during the war, and all of them will receive an extension of their terms until its end. What is true of the police commissioner and the IPS commissioner should also be true of the foreign minister, Cohen's supporters believe. According to them, Cohen will meet the agreements if requested, but it makes no sense to replace an active and functioning foreign minister who controls the material and the international map in the middle of such a complex campaign.
Above the surface, the two maintain each other's dignity. In the inner envelope, that of associates and supporters, the real battles are revealed. It was recently reported that Cohen worked to grant a diplomatic passport to Yair Netanyahu. In fact, he only extended the validity of the passport he had previously held, but the accusing finger was pointed directly at Katz. As if he is the one behind the defamatory publication. Others in the Likud argue exactly the opposite, that the publication only serves Cohen.
In the media he may be attacked, but will Minister Cohen lose by being accused of granting a special passport to the son of someone who will determine whether he will remain in the Foreign Ministry or not? Some think the answer is obvious. In the meantime, the tension is pretty much eating the two from the inside, and in the coming days the answer will be given.
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