Twice in the past, Israel went to war, after a naval blockade was imposed on it. The first time on the eve of the Sinai War, when Gamal Abdel Nasser, the president of Egypt, closed the Strait of Tiran. But in 1956, the Egyptian military buildup worried Israel more than the economic blockade. In 1967, it was a completely different story. On 22 May, after weeks of provocation against Israel, Nasser made his biggest mistake by publicly announcing: "The Gulf of Aqaba constitutes our Egyptian territorial waters. Under no circumstances will we allow the Israeli flag to pass through the Gulf of Aqaba. The Jews threatened war. Beautiful. So we say to them: Ahlen and Sahlen. We are ready for war." Israel declared the closure of the Strait of Tiran to be casus-belli, and indeed the Six Day War broke out on 5 June. Nasser's Egypt was defeated there.
A leap forward in time: On 9 December 2023, the Houthis announced the closure of the Bab al Mandeb Strait (Gate of Lamentation) for the passage of ships towards Israel, unless their purpose is to deliver humanitarian aid to Gaza. They also defined what a legitimate target they considered: any ship moving toward Israel. Indeed, since the naval blockade was imposed, the Houthis have not been afraid to attack cargo ships and tankers, and the damage is accumulating. Just last weekend, four shipping companies – Denmark's Maersk, Germany's Hapag Lloyd, France's CMA CGM and Switzerland's MSC – announced that they would stop sailing in the Red Sea due to the Houthi threat.
Is this declaration a problem for Israel alone? No, Egypt suffers too. In 2023, the Suez Canal brought in $8.5 billion, a 124 per cent jump from the previous year. But following the Houthi blockade, any ship that cannot reach Israel cannot necessarily pass through the Suez Canal, and the Suez Canal is a pillar of the Egyptian economy.
Beyond the local arena, this is an event of global scale. We note only that about 7.8 million barrels per day of crude oil and fuel products passed through the strait in the first half of the year. In addition, 12 per cent of total oil traded at sea, as well as 8 per cent of liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade, passed through Bab el-Mandeb, the SUMED pipeline and the Suez Canal in the first half of 2023. In other words, shutting down the Egyptians will inevitably lead to an energy crisis. Therefore, the economic consequences of the blockade could be enormous, all amounting to an overall increase in prices. This is because shipping companies will have to pay higher insurance premiums if they want to pass through Bab el-Mandeb, and because if they decide not to pass there, their ships and tankers will have to circumnavigate the Cape of Good Hope (South Africa) to reach the Mediterranean or Europe (about two more weeks of sea journey).
At a time when the world is trying to recover economically after the COVID-19 pandemic, and is facing an energy crisis due to the Russia-Ukraine war, shutting down Egypt is a step that cannot be accepted.
In 2023, the Suez Canal brought in $8.5 billion, a 124 per cent jump from the previous year. But following the Houthi blockade, any ship that cannot reach Israel cannot necessarily pass through the Suez Canal, and the canal is a pillar of the Egyptian economy
But what are the options for action? The first alternative is to form a multinational naval force to oversee navigation in the Red Sea. The Americans have begun the work, but it is expected that it will take many weeks before the move can be carried out. Moreover, Iran immediately threatened and announced that if the Americans "made such a stupid and irrational move, they would face extraordinary problems." By the way, in May 1967, the United States pursued the same goal, but failed miserably.
The next alternative is the use of military force. True, this is the "dirty" alternative. The one that will drag the Americans into the regional war from which they are trying to escape. But assuming that the Houthis do not intend to disappear, and by their very existence as an Iranian arm they threaten America's allies in the Middle East (Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Israel, for example), and even more so, attack American targets, the time has come to get into the mud and bring order to a region that requires a strong landlord. Because, according to the well-known saying, "problems must be killed when they are small," otherwise they grow to dimensions that do not know how to deal with them.
Wrong? We'll fix it! If you find a mistake in the article, please share with us