It was a tough weekend in Gaza. Not only the harsh weather conditions: Intensive fighting took place on the ground, both in the southern and northern Gaza Strip.
In both sectors, the IDF suffered casualties in several separate incidents. Hamas suffered dozens of losses and other infrastructure. In the northern Gaza Strip, fighting is concentrated in the area of Daraj-Tufah, where the IDF began operating only in recent days. In the southern Gaza Strip, the fighting is concentrated in the center of Khan Yunis, in an area where the Hamas leadership headed by Yahya Sinwar is allegedly hiding and operating. At the same time, Hamas consistently tries to harm the forces guarding the "corridor" separating the northern and southern Gaza Strip, in order to prevent the passage of Hamas operatives and civilians.
The hunt for the top
The hunt for the Hamas leadership continues in other sectors as well. In Rafah, Hassan Atrash, who was one of the main elements in Hamas' mechanism for manufacturing and equipping weapons with weapons, was assassinated. The results of another assassination attempt carried out a few days ago – of Rafah Brigade commander Muhammad Shabanah – have not yet been clarified, although it may take more time before it becomes clear whether he was killed. In the case of Hamas Gaza brigade commander Ahmed Randour, more than three weeks passed from the time he was attacked until Hamas admitted that he had been killed.
The intense fighting over the weekend has several explanations. The IDF believes it stems from the fact that the forces touch the core capabilities of Hamas, which is fighting for its life. This is also the message that War Cabinet members Yoav Galant and Benny Gantz sought to convey yesterday, who criticized the forces in the Beit Hanoun area. It is also possible that Hamas felt more comfortable operating in the rain, when visibility is limited and troop movement is slower than usual.
The scene of an assassination in Rafah, photo: Reuters
Also this past weekend, the main threat to the forces was anti-tank missiles and RPG bombs, along with sniping and detonating IEDs. The IDF is also concerned about the relatively high number of bilateral shooting incidents. In the first weeks of the fighting, there were many casualties from the fire of our forces; Their number has declined following a refinement of procedures, and is growing again now. It is possible that this is also related to the weather, and at the same time it is again necessary to make sure that all the instructions and boundaries of the sector are strictly observed.
More weeks of activity
The IDF is now concentrating efforts on destroying the extensive tunnel network built in Gaza. Senior sources admitted that this is a much more complex challenge than initially assessed: there are more tunnels than previously known, and they are branched, deep and interconnected to enable Hamas operatives to operate in them and move from sector to sector. In some areas, most of the exposed route has already been destroyed, and in other areas, the operation will take more time.
The prevailing assessment is that it will take the IDF several more days to complete most of its activity in the northern Gaza Strip. After that, forces will remain in this sector as well, in order to deepen the destruction of the exposed infrastructure (mainly the tunnels), and also to prevent the return of civilians who left for the southern Gaza Strip, but the activity will focus mainly on the Khan Yunis area, in an attempt to defeat the Hamas Brigades and destroy the infrastructure in the city.
This activity is expected to continue for several more weeks. During this period, a decision will be made whether to act now against the refugee camps in the central Gaza Strip as well. There are four camps – Deir al Balah, Bureij, Nuseirat and Mu'azi – all of which are considered Hamas strongholds.
Turning to the Egyptian axis
Israel has not yet decided whether to operate on the ground in the Rafah sector as well. This sector is complex for two main reasons: the presence of more than a million refugees in the vicinity of the city, and the fear of damage to relations with Egypt, which borders Rafah.
The intensification of military activity is also taking place against the background of the stalemate in the contacts for the release of the hostages. After the Qatari axis failed last week, when it did not lead to the resumption of negotiations in light of Hamas' demand for a comprehensive ceasefire as a first condition, significant efforts are now being invested in the Egyptian axis, which was the one through which the Gilad Shalit deal was carried out in the past.
The person conducting the contacts on behalf of Egypt is Intelligence Minister Abbas Kamal, who is considered a powerful figure in the Egyptian network and influential vis-à-vis Hamas in Gaza. Last week, several senior figures in Hamas' foreign leadership, headed by Ismail Haniyeh, arrived in Cairo, apparently as part of the indirect contacts currently underway on the issue.
Eyes on Lebanon
Alongside the military activity, Israel is preparing for a gradual return of residents to the south. It is estimated that by mid-January, residents will be able to return to communities more than four kilometers from Gaza, and later to kibbutzim where physical harm was less on October 7.
Smoke over Ita ash Shaab following IDF shelling,
At this stage, there is no expectation that residents will return to the north. This depends mainly on the progress of diplomatic contacts led by the United States in order to avoid expanding the campaign between Israel and Hezbollah. The Americans seek to enforce an arms embargo and prevent Hezbollah military activity south of the Litani River (two articles that appear in Security Council Resolution 1701 that ended the Second Lebanon War), as well as settling the 13 points of dispute along the Lebanese border.
It seems that the chances of this happening are quite low, which may require intensifying the fighting in order to keep Hezbollah away from the border. However, in the meantime, prioritization will continue for the southern sector in order to defeat Hamas first. Israel hopes that a significant blow to Hamas and the elimination of some of its leaders will significantly reduce Hezbollah's will to fight, and will help achieve better conditions for a solution in the northern arena as well.
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