Nearly 26,34 people in 2024 countries recently participated in the Ipsos survey, which looked at what they think 79 will look like and what is likely to happen in it. 68 per cent of respondents predicted that prices in their country would rise faster than salaries, while 64 per cent were also convinced that their country's unemployment rate would rise – probably not without the fact that <> per cent feared that artificial intelligence would steal jobs.
81% believe 2024 will be even warmer than record-breaking 2023, while 70% are convinced extreme weather events will occur in their country. 48% believe a new global pandemic is definitely a likely scenario. 35% think AI-powered malware is likely to cause chaos in their country, and 22% don't rule out the possibility of an asteroid hitting Earth.
Preparations for the New Year in Moldova,
Beyond the curiosity aroused by the data, it tells us something about the sense of uncertainty that is accompanying much of humanity as 2024 approaches. This is understandable: 2023 is ending with disturbing chords – China, the world's largest exporter, is suffering from slowdown and deflation; An end to Russia's invasion of Ukraine is nowhere in sight, and the Houthis' disruption of the world's most important shipping route has shown how easy it is to identify global vulnerabilities.
More than 70 countries will go to the polls
And these events only reinforce the importance of 2024, even without which it seems destined for decisions. The reason: More than 70 countries (an all-time record), with a total population of 4.2 billion, will hold national elections in the coming year. Although not all systems will be free or fair, this is a milestone for democracy as a system of government, which is actually in decline in a number of global indicators. Assuming they all remain democracies, a similar round is expected only in 2048.
In the global election year, three campaigns require special attention. Taiwan's presidential election will be held on January 13, which will determine whether the republic prefers a path of defending independence even at the cost of confrontation with China or rapprochement with Beijing. At the moment, the race is very close, and it can be assumed that Taiwan's choice will have an impact on China's plans for the island.
The question is not whether he will win, but how many percent. Putin (archive), photo: AP
The second campaign is the "elections" in Russia, in the absence of a real opposition, the only question in which is not whether Putin will win, but how many percent. What is its importance? The true scale of support will likely influence the Kremlin's considerations of whether and when to announce a comprehensive new mobilization to continue the war against Ukraine.
But the most influential elections of all will be held on November 5 in the United States. No less critical for the divided American nation, these are dramatic elections for the entire world – first and foremost because they will determine whether the United States chooses to reduce its role and responsibility as a global actor and consequently reduce its military and economic involvement in various sectors, or continue to serve as the main engine of the West.
The choice of Americans will have consequences. Biden, Photo: Reuters
The choice of the Americans will have implications for the growing competition with China in a variety of economic and geographical arenas, it will have implications for the global handling of climate challenges, and it will also have implications for the war in Ukraine: Hoping to close the faucet to Kyiv, Moscow is making no secret of its anticipation of Donald Trump's return to the White House. In many ways, Putin depends more on the American voter than on the Russian one.
But even if Joe Biden wins another term, for this war to end in a Ukrainian victory — and by extension, for the entire democratic West — it will take much more than has been done so far. First and foremost, it is a change in the dominant perception that has so far led Ukraine's allies to worry most about a total Russian defeat.
Will the West understand the magnitude of the danger posed by Kremlin imperialism? Do you realize that the prosperity that stemmed in part from the reduction of investment in defense cannot continue as it did yesterday? There are initial signs of a change in trend, as evidenced by European intelligence reports calling for preparations for war with Russia within a few years. The opening of the door to the EU for Kyiv is also a testament. In this respect, 2024 will be an election year in more ways than one.
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