Yesterday, the IDF expanded its campaign in the south to include the refugee camps in the central Gaza Strip. This is a necessary move, which will require weeks and great forces to complete thoroughly.
There are four large refugee camps in the central Gaza Strip: Al Bureij, Nuseirat, Deir al Balah and Mu'azi. In fact, this is a particularly dense and violent urban continuum, in which Hamas enjoys overwhelming support. The brigade's commander in the area, Ayman Nofal, was eliminated in the first month of the war, but the brigade – under which several battalions operate – continues to function despite the absence of its dominant commander.
Activity in Khan Yunis: 4th Brigade eliminates terrorists and destroys weapons factory (archive) // IDF Spokesperson
Entering this space is important for three reasons. The first is that there is no way to neutralize Hamas' military capability in the Gaza Strip without carrying it out physically, in every area, and on the way to dismantling the battalions and companies from their capabilities. The second is that the activity in the central Gaza Strip will create geographic contiguity between the area of Gaza City and the Khan Yunis area, where Israel will have control. The third is that Hamas must not have the feeling that any area in the Gaza Strip is immune from Israeli activity.
Based on the pace of the IDF's progress in the war so far, it can be estimated that the activity in the central camps will continue for many weeks, until Hamas strongholds there are significantly damaged. After that, too, activity will continue, albeit in a different format of raids and assassinations according to intelligence and need.
IDF soldier in the Gaza Strip, photo: IDF Spokesperson
IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevy said yesterday that the war would continue for many months, and he seemed modest in his assessment: In order to cut off the Hamas regime and to overwhelm most of its military capabilities, and also to destroy its command infrastructure, it may take several years, after which Israel will continue to operate in Gaza with varying intensity and ways, in the hope that at some point another regime will emerge that will shape a different horizon vis-à-vis Israel.
Rafah Dilemma
The decision to operate in the central Gaza Strip is not the only one Israel must make. At least two other decisions are on the agenda: one whether to expand the campaign in Khan Yunis to other areas of the city, including the refugee camp, considered one of Hamas' toughest strongholds in the Gaza Strip, and second, whether to act in Rafah as well, including the possibility of taking over the Philadelphi route.
The Khan Yunis dilemma requires a positive decision. The IDF is already there anyway, and as far as is known, so is the Hamas leadership. Anyone who claims that only military pressure will move her should tighten this pressure on her neck. This should advance the goal of the first war of dismantling Hamas of its capabilities, and it is hoped that it will also advance the goal of the second war of creating better conditions for the return of the hostages.
The forces operate in Daraj Tufah in the northern Gaza Strip, Photo: IDF Spokesperson
Rafah's dilemma is more complicated. The city is complex for activity (mainly its refugee camp), and there are about a million refugees around it who have nowhere to refer and there is concern that they will try to flee to Sinai, which could endanger relations between Israel and Egypt. On the other hand, taking control of the city and its environs is essential in order not to leave places immune in Gaza, and in order to control the smuggling route in Philadelphi.
Such a move requires close coordination with Egypt. This has its advantages, mainly in the possibility of advancing negotiations for the release of the hostages, and also in possible solutions for the day after the war. There are also problems with this, especially in the face of an expected Egyptian demand to allow the Palestinian Authority to regain a foothold in Gaza. Israel must exhaust this discourse while promoting military activity, not only because Egypt is Gaza's second neighbor, alongside Israel, but because, like us, Egypt is also interested in getting rid of Hamas and establishing a less extreme and threatening regime in the Gaza Strip.
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