How long does Russia intend to continue its invasion of Ukraine? A senior Japanese journalist reveals previously unknown details.
According to Katsuji Nakazawa, a commentator for the Nikkei newspaper, Russian President Vladimir Putin raised the expected duration of the war in March in a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping. According to Nakazawa's sources, Putin told his guest that Russia intends to fight "for at least five more years." This means that the war will not end before 2028.
It is unclear whether the Kremlin really intends (and is capable) to wage war for so long, despite the steady rise in defense investment (4% of GDP was invested in it this year, 6% is planned next year). It is not inconceivable that the remarks were made against the backdrop of Russian defeats in the fall preceding the meeting or, alternatively, ahead of preparations to halt Kyiv's counteroffensive, which in March was still a future threat to Russia's occupation of southern Ukraine.
In Nakazawa's assessment, Putin sought first and foremost to secure China's support for Russia, since the start of the war a year earlier and its scope surprised and even angered Beijing: despite the proximity with Moscow, the Chinese were not informed of the impending invasion.
Remains of Russian shelling in eastern Ukraine, Photo: Reuters
Nakazawa said it was unclear how much China believed the promise to wage the war in five years. China, which has the world's second-largest GDP and the world's largest exporter, did not want to get too close to Russia and put all its eggs in one basket, evidenced by the dispatch of Chinese delegations to talks in the European Union and Kiev. Moscow did not like the latter, and according to Nakazawa, gave China information that led first to the disappearance of Foreign Minister Qin Gang, and then to his sudden ouster and deletion of mentions on the Chinese Foreign Ministry website.
However, the publication comes just days after The New York Times reported that since September, Putin has signaled Putin's openness to ceasefire negotiations. Former Russian officials close to the Kremlin and two U.S. officials told the newspaper that Putin was open to the idea if fighting stopped along the current lines of contact. It should be said that Putin has also spoken publicly about his supposed willingness to negotiate, but Kiev and most of its allies are convinced that this is an exercise designed to buy time to prepare for the continuation of the war. Two weeks ago, Germany's Bild revealed that Russia has an organized plan for conquests in Ukraine over the next three years, with the goal of capturing the cities of Kharkiv and Dnipro and their regions by 2026.
Ukrainian Bohdana self-propelled gun used on the Eastern Front, Photo: Reuters
Meanwhile, Ukraine is also not stagnant and significantly increases defense production. According to Minister of Strategic Industries Oleksandr Kamyshin, towards the end of this year, the country increased the production of armored combat vehicles (armored vehicles) fivefold compared to the spring of this year. According to him, today six Bohdana howitzers are also produced every month.
It was also reported that since August, Ukraine has been producing dozens of Shahed-like UAVs, and next year, he said, the army will be able to receive more than 1,000 vehicles with a range of 170,180 kilometers. Although these are not yet capabilities that Russia has, which at this stage is supposed to produce 2023-<> "shahids" a month at a factory set up by Iran in Yelbuga near Kazan, the very fact that such weapons are also manufactured in Ukraine is a novelty. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told a meeting with defense industry workers that military production in Ukraine will triple in <>.
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