The military echelon is already preparing for the transition to the third phase of the war in Gaza (targeted fighting), but the political echelon has not yet decided on two things: when it will happen, and how to mediate to the Israeli public the crossing as another stage in the war against Hamas, and not, God forbid, as the end of the campaign without achieving the goals of toppling Hamas and returning the hostages.
Prime Minister Netanyahu: "We are deepening the fighting, we will continue to fight" // GPO
This week, Gantz revealed at the plenary session on the return of the abductees that his operational priorities put the return of the abductees above the collapse of Hamas. This is in contrast to Netanyahu and Galant, who claim that a military move will also lead to their release. But this is not the only controversy in the cabinet room. Not only are the orders of operations under debate, but also the date of the transition to the third phase of the fighting in Gaza, in which the IDF will partially reduce its presence in some places and act in a focused manner against the terrorists' nests.
Gantz, according to cabinet ministers, is pressing to move on to the third stage "today" and not wait any longer. On the other hand, Galant and Netanyahu are extending the war at this stage by a few weeks, with the defense establishment aiming to end it within the next month at most.
Pressing to move on to the third stage already "today". Gantz, Photo: Noam Rivkin Fenton/Flash90
The arguments at the top have a direct impact on the boiling arena in the north. If the war in the south indeed moves to the next stage, and the political solution to removing Hezbollah terrorists from the border does not work, very soon Israel will act militarily on the northern border. As senior military and state officials have made clear in recent months: We are not interested in managing two arenas simultaneously, but the decline in intensity in Gaza is expected to certainly make it possible to move the forces to operate in the north in order to distance the threat from the border.
The political-security cabinet has already begun preparing for the various scenarios and discussing the question of timing, not only on the Gaza border but also on the Lebanese border. Additional discussions indicate a major problem involved in the transition to the third phase of the fighting in Gaza: internal Israeli public diplomacy. Netanyahu has already sent countless statements to make it clear that the war in Gaza is unlikely to end anytime soon, Gantz has pledged that the fighting will continue, and on Tuesday the chief of staff was also recruited to explain the fighting, which has pledged that the fighting will continue for many more months.
Smoke over the northern border near Lebanon, photo: AFP
Politicians have trouble explaining
The Israeli public is not interested in ending the war in a situation in which Hamas remains on its feet after the horrific massacre of civilians – women, children and the elderly – and politicians find it difficult to explain what the continuation of the war will look like when many soldiers leave the area. Moreover, senior government officials have already explained how the whole world is watching and seeing how Israel is fighting Hamas, and what could appear to be a defeat in the southern sector is likely to lead to great interest in other hostile countries.
IDF forces fighting in the Gaza Strip, photo: IDF Spokesperson
Branding the IDF's next move in Gaza is critical for outside observers, critical for Israeli citizens whose security was compromised on 7 October, and no less critical for politicians who may seek the public's trust (and ensure security, of course) soon at the ballot box.
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