1.
"Dubrovin Mansion", the brown sign on Highway 90, near Kiryat Shmona. Winter sunshine warmed the muddy fields that refused to dry out. In one of them, I had said goodbye a few minutes earlier to a group of artillerymen, who had replaced their comfortable routine with giant tents and backgammon games. From the quick-ground, 155mm guns stood up, instead of crops. Welcome to Israel, Winter <>.
The soldiers and their commanders told me about the price they pay to defend the country, and they do so wholeheartedly. Dealings with American companies that went down the drain. Prestigious positions in high-tech companies that are transferred to others, because the reservist has been absent for 80 days. And just longing for home, family, school or everyday life.
But the determination to remove once and for all the danger from the northern settlements overcame them all. Even the willingness to risk one's life – from drones, missiles and other flying vehicles that Hezbollah occasionally launches here – did not deter anyone.
., Photo: Tomer-hu,-Wikipedia
While they were still talking, I was reminded of the powerful legend, as they say today, about the Dubrovin family. The mansion, which became a heritage site, was visible in the distance. A few years ago I visited the museum, which tells of the unimaginable determination of Yoav Dubrovin, his family and partners, to hold on to Hula Valley rugby at all costs.
Malaria wreaked havoc on the tribe of the Russian righteous man, Dubrovin, who settled on the estate in 1909. Many of his sons, daughters-in-law, employees and neighbors died of disease and starvation. In one case, the plague knocked down a groom who was standing under his canopy feverish. He died the next day.
"And what is most distressing—lest I sin with my lips—to a mortal? That means hunger," Bayla Lickerman, a resident of the mansion, later described her memories. "When the sinful body demands, and the heart weakens, and there is nothing to support it, it is evil and bitter... But it is even more terrible for a woman when she sees the fruit of her stomach shrinking from hunger... To see it degenerate and diminish day by day... There was just nothing to eat... Above a wide blue sky, around high and towering mountains, down the quiet stream everything is good, beautiful and sublime. But what? Here, inside, you would feel something suckling and sucking the rest of the sap out of you, the essence of blood, and you feel that here are your powers tools, that there is no longer the strength to stand on your feet... Here you fall... When the children started measuring each other's slices, 'Yours is bigger than mine... And give me your own bite...' Then the source of the tears would break out, and we would weep heavily, without any desire to stop."
And now, a whole century has passed, and the same devotion, the same determination, the same determination and the same tenacity. The TikTok generation, we learn every day, is no less determined than the Founding Fathers to give their lives for the people and the country, and pays with their lives for the nation to flourish in its land. Dubrovin, who eventually left for Rosh Pina so that his family would not be completely destroyed, was proud of them.
2.
While IDF soldiers, both in Gaza and in the north, are alert and determined, signs of erosion are visible at the top. The American and media pressures, the disagreements within the cabinet, the prolongation of the war and its heavy costs, the gaps vis-à-vis the army and the lack of satisfaction with its performance at the political level, the distancing from the horrors of the massacre, the difficulties in rescuing the hostages – any of these, and perhaps all of them together, give rise to material fatigue in the leadership. Which is very bad.
Defense Minister Galant rightly observed this week that "we are in a multi-front war, we are being attacked from seven different fronts - Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, Judea and Samaria, Iraq, Yemen and Iran." In other words, not only a war in Gaza and events in the north, but the same multi-front campaign that has been talked about all these years. But such a campaign cannot end in three months, and it must not end without a clear victory that the whole world will recognize.
At the moment we are not there. In other words, Galant himself and Netanyahu do press forward. But Gantz and Eisenkot are already talking about moving on to the next phase of the war, which consists mainly of targeted raids rather than a full hold on the ground. In their view, Israel will partially withdraw from Gaza without Hamas being destroyed. But this is not a victory. Moreover, it is clear that if at the stage of maximum pressure we do not destroy Hamas, it will not happen later. Targeted raids won't do the trick.
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But the weakness is not only that of the two retired chiefs of staff. Nor do the hawkish Netanyahu and Galant insist on a permanent occupation of the Philadelphi route, whose subterranean was and still is Hamas' oxygen pipeline. Here, too, the War Cabinet is planning only sporadic raids. Here, too, if there is no change in the decision, it means that Hamas will not be defeated.
News channels in Gaza reported this week that Egyptian intelligence chief Abbas Kamel spoke directly with Yahya Sinwar, on a secure wire line that ran through a tunnel from Egyptian Rafah to Gaza Rafah. This indicates that if the tunnel telephone line is working, it must be assumed that other components of the tunnel are also working.
IDF intelligence is aware of the problem, but claims that what passes through the Philadelphi Tunnels during the war is negligible and does not decide the face of the campaign. It's a bluff. We learned the hard way that the IDF doesn't really know, and after the Simchat Torah massacre, it is no longer possible to continue this game of self-deceit. As long as Philadelphi is not physically blocked by the IDF, we must start from the strict assumption that he is active now, and that he will be even more active if the war is stopped before it is destroyed.
Another and most difficult challenge is humanitarian aid. On the one hand, both for moral reasons and because of American pressure, Israel must bring supplies in. We are not Nazis or Russians, and we do not think of starving all Gazans. On the other hand, as long as the aid comes in, Hamas takes over. An amazing conversation between a Gaza resident and an Israeli officer illustrated how the method works.
Gaza resident: "The situation is terrible... The people responsible for humanitarian aid are thieves."
IDF officer: "Who are the thieves? Are the people of Hamas taking the food from the humanitarian services?"
Gaza resident: "Sure, sure, everywhere Hamas goes there is destruction."
IDF officer: "But this is a place of humanitarian aid and they have to provide food to the civilians. What is the connection to Hamas?"
Gaza resident: "Hamas is involved in everything, my brother, you should know that. And he runs UNRWA. He puts his hands on the employees and manages UNRWA. They are in charge of the agency. And they are responsible everywhere... From the day they came to power, they took control of everything."
IDF officer: "And they don't provide food to civilians?"
Gaza resident: "First they give to their people."
IDF officer: "Do you talk to UNRWA personnel and tell them?"
Gaza resident: "With whom? Who can I talk to? What I'm telling you is unknown. No one knows about it."
IDF officer: "Those in charge of the agency are collaborating with Hamas?"
Gaza resident: "Sir, the administrative staff at the agency are Hamas."
IDF officer (repeats the question): "Those in charge of the agency are collaborating with Hamas?"
Gaza resident: "Unfortunately, yes. Those who control it are those who control the regional headquarters [of the agency], they are Hamas operatives themselves."
In other words, the problem goes much deeper than a few armed men climbing onto a truck with Kalashnikovs. Despite the heavy destruction of the Gaza Strip – and there is such destruction – Hamas continues to flow through its veins and conduct at least part of its civilian life. This means that even the goal of toppling civilian rule in the Gaza Strip, as set by the cabinet, has not been achieved. That's another problem.
3.
The complete failure to destroy Hamas would not only be a missed opportunity for the war's goals, but also a real obstacle to the day after. Both inside and outside the government, initiatives and plans to impose Saudi Arabia, or the UAE, or Egypt, or the United States, or an international power, or all sorts of other patents pop up like mushrooms after the rain. Some suggest integrating local clan forces, while others suggest PA officials. The Americans, of course, are pushing the "renewed Palestinian Authority" – that is, buying a future house on the moon.
In the real world, the Emiratis have already set up a small encampment in the southern Gaza Strip, where several hundred Gazans live. In the Rafah stadium, they operate an improvised hospital to treat the wounded. As long as the scale is small and Hamas is in a battle for survival, they can operate unhindered. But if Israel withdraws from most of Gaza, and does so while Hamas is alive and functioning, the UAE, or the Saudis, or the Egyptians, or any other power, will find themselves in trouble.
Photo: Haim Tzach, GPO
After all, Sinwar – or whoever replaces him if he is assassinated – will not relinquish control of the Gaza Strip of his own good will. And no one can and does not want to carry out the assassination, except Israel. In other words, a necessary condition for any foreign power that will manage life in the Gaza Strip, whether as a single entity or as a piece of land, is the expulsion of Hamasniks from all the cells on the ground.
It's really not happening and isn't going to happen – and put aside the denazification process that has been forgotten by the wayside. "It will be a serious problem if in an area that we define as a humanitarian zone and is handed over to the UAE, or to Saudi Arabia, squads suddenly appear," said a senior political official. Unlike some decision-makers, he is supervised and grounded.
"I really can't tell you how they'll react and how we'll react if a Hamas mayor starts, for example, getting an audience. As far as we are concerned, he is dead because we decided to eliminate Hamas. But what would those Emiratis or Saudis do if an Israeli drone thwarted that mayor? They cannot be portrayed in the Arab world as collaborating with the IDF," says the senior Israeli official.
If so, what do we do, I ask. "There are ideas, discussions and plans," he replies, "but the plotter is serious."
In other words, on paper, the proposals for the "day after" may look great, but as long as Hamas is not destroyed – and at the moment it is not – it will be very complicated to move from the Hamas reality of Gaza to contingency plans.
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