A difficult challenge awaits anyone who wishes to draw a realistic vision for the Gaza Strip, for the coming decade and probably even longer. He will have to choose between a vision without hope and a baseless hope. In its attitudes toward the day after, the political echelon in Israel will have to adopt a realistic approach, and stick to the data and hard facts about the monstrous entity that grew in our region and held on deeply to all systems of life and strata of the population. He will have to act on the assumption that profound cultural change cannot be brought about, at least in this generation. He will be required to set security demilitarization as a precondition for any reality that will take shape in Gaza, to oppose any initiative and move that would jeopardize it, and not to trust foreign oversight mechanisms. The arrival of US Secretary of State Antony Blinken in Israel in the coming days will provide an opportunity to coordinate expectations with the US administration regarding this as well.
Blinken: "Israel cannot run the Gaza Strip" // Reuters
While the discourse on the issue of "the day after" revolved around the question of "who will be" (the day after the collapse of the de-facto Hamas administration), no less important is the question of what will happen. The public answer to these questions by the political echelon in Israel was given in the negative, and emphasized what will not happen in the Gaza Strip: the de-facto Hamas administration, the Palestinian Authority, military capabilities that threaten Israel, and limitations on its freedom of security action. Thus, the political echelon drew lines for the general framework, but did not cast its contents.
Despite the criticism, the political echelon did well to postpone the in-depth discussion of the details. First, to focus attention on combat. Second, so as not to create the impression of impatience and preparation for its end (thereby discouraging our forces and strengthening the enemy's hopes). Third, so as not to provoke internal disagreement. Fourth, in order to postpone and reduce political friction on this issue with the American administration. Fifth, because the determination regarding the "day after" also depends on the achievements of the fighting on the "day before," and it is correct to discuss this from a position of strength, when assets and levers are held, and not before.
Restoring deterrence and security demilitarization are the main thing
Although the IDF's operation is still ongoing, it is right to deviate from this line and delve deeper into one of the characteristics of the "day after" precisely because discussing it could provide a solution to one of the most difficult dilemmas at this stage of the fighting: dealing with the tunneling challenge.
Inside the longest tunnel in Gaza, photo: Lilach Shoval
The essence of the dilemma: On the one hand, after the price it paid on 7 October, Israel cannot allow the existence of the monstrous tunnel network with all its contents in the Gaza Strip. On the other hand, Israel is already paying for exposing and destroying this network is high. The continued effort to systematically expose the tunnels will prolong the fighting, exact additional costs from our forces, and increase political pressure on Israel. What to do?
Any area where there are tunnels will be declared a combat zone indefinitely. First, it must be made clear that as long as there are tunnels, the state of fighting will continue! It is right to bring (especially the United States) to an agreement that the existence of tunnels in the Gaza Strip contradicts the principle of security demilitarization and that it will not be possible to allow Palestinian residents to live their lives in areas where there are tunnels. This means that these areas will be defined as "combat zones," and whoever is found in them will be considered an enemy and will be treated as such. All this until the tunnels are dismantled, indefinitely.
Terrorists surrender after IDF forces take over the Hamas compound in Jabaliya, photo: Report
Those who oppose this idea will probably raise the question of solutions for the population currently outside the combat zones as a temporary situation until it returns to routine.
In another reality, in light of Gaza's conduct as a "Hamas state" and in light of the high rates of support for this organization and the savage attack on Israel, there is no room for this question at all. However, in light of the prevailing positions today, it can be assumed that such a response will only increase the resistance. Instead, the United States should be mobilized for humanitarian solutions, defined as prolonged but not permanent, outside the combat zone. Another argument for this is the destruction that exists in most neighborhoods in Gaza. Most of the population has nowhere to return anyway. Anyone who sees Hamas's tunnel factory – which was based on construction materials intended for civilian purposes – must also lower his expectations for construction and reconstruction in the foreseeable future. In this matter too, Israel will not be able to make mistakes again.
The writer serves as head of the Misgav Institute for National Security and Zionist Strategy
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