Bernardo Arévalo's countdown in Guatemala

This December 31, with the chimes that mark the arrival of the new year, another countdown begins for Bernardo Arévalo (Montevideo, 65 years old): that of his investiture as president of Guatemala, on January 14, a milestone that neither he nor the most optimistic of the members of his party – the Seed Movement – could have imagined a little more than half a year ago. and which, after his victory in the second round of the August elections, has become an obstacle course.

In the more than four months that have passed since he was elected at the polls, this sociologist, congressman and diplomat expert in conflict resolution has denounced several times a coup d'état perpetrated by the Public Prosecutor's Office and headed by the Attorney General, Consuelo Porras. These attempts to derail the transition of power with a trail of court cases have failed thanks to a strong citizen mobilization in defense of democracy — driven mainly by indigenous peoples — and a firm condemnation from the international community that has not hesitated to denounce every offensive by the Attorney General's Office to prevent the inauguration of the president-elect.

Several analysts consulted by EL PAÍS believe that in the coming days there may still be new attempts to overthrow Semilla through the courts, but they also consider that there is little chance that they will go ahead. Especially after a ruling issued by the Constitutional Court in mid-December, which offered guarantees for Arévalo to put on the presidential sash on January 14.

To reach the presidency, Bernardo Arévalo convinced the majority of Guatemalans with a strong anti-corruption message in a country that in recent years has faced a serious democratic setback, with less and less independence between powers and with the persecution of judges, prosecutors, activists, journalists and human rights defenders who have fought or pointed out corruption.

"We knew it was going to be difficult, but not so brutal."

The president-elect and his team, made up mainly of young university students and progressive professionals from urban areas, knew that their proposal for change would meet resistance from what in Guatemala they call the "pact of the corrupt," an informal alliance of politicians and bureaucratic and business elites who protect each other to maintain power. But his party says it is surprised by the intensity of the attempt to sabotage the results, something that, they acknowledge, has taken time away from preparing for the transition.

"From the founding process of Semilla they put obstacles in our way. We have been permanently defying the barriers that the system put in place and we knew that they were not going to welcome us with parties and pomp," says Román Castellanos, one of the 23 deputies that the ruling party will have in Congress, where Arévalo's party will be the third force. "We knew it was going to be difficult, but not so brutal, for the onslaught against the popular will to be so institutionalized, to delegitimize the election result and undermine the legitimacy of the president-elect."

Congressman Román Castellanos poses on December 21 in Guatemala City.Edwin Bercián (EFE)

Despite acknowledging that this situation has taken time away from working on the urgencies needed by a country with high levels of poverty and inequality and major development challenges, Castellanos believes that the attacks have strengthened Arévalo. "The president-elect arrives with more strength in his leadership and legitimacy at the national level because he has become a symbol of the struggle for democracy, for fundamental freedoms and for respect for the fragile democratic institutions that we have left," he says. For him, the arrival of Arévalo and Vice President-elect Karin Herrera to power will imply "the containment of democratic deterioration," a requirement that, for Semilla, is indispensable to be able to work on the country's other needs.

The main challenge: generating governance

Political scientist Marielos Chang agrees that the constant attacks have added to Arevalo's political wealth and popularity, but she believes that these attacks may also have kept people from joining his Cabinet because they do not want to be attacked. For her, the president-elect's main challenge will be to fulfill the electoral offer that gave him victory, the fight against corruption, an objective that, she says, he can pursue in two ways: the legal prosecution of corruption cases, something that, in her opinion, will be difficult as long as Consuelo Porras continues as attorney general; and "the elaboration of the necessary reforms to be able to lay the foundations so that these major cases of corruption do not exist."

Guatemala's Attorney General and Chief of the Public Prosecutor's Office, Consuelo Porras, in Guatemala City on September 5. EDWIN BERCIAN ((EPA) EFE)

Another challenge, he says, will be to achieve a certain level of governability with a Congress where his party does not have a majority and with courts, such as the Justice Chamber, that have opened some proceedings against the Seed Movement. "They have a razor around their neck that's going to limit them, but that doesn't mean they won't be able to do a lot," Chang says. "I believe that the political situation in Guatemala was at such a low level that there is an opportunity within the Executive to make substantial changes that can be well seen by the population."

Among the changes the analyst expects is to speed up the hiring of people capable of mobilizing public services in key ministries such as education, health or infrastructure, and also to promote greater transparency with the media. "We are also talking about an executive that we hope will not persecute the press as the government of Alejandro Giammattei did," he said.

The permanence of the questioned Consuelo Porras at the head of the Public Prosecutor's Office will undoubtedly be one of the great issues that occupy the current situation in Guatemala in the coming months. Arevalo has said that one of the first things he will do as president will be to request the resignation of the woman he has accused of orchestrating the coup against him. "There are already enough arguments of abuse of power, usurpation of functions, flagrant violation of the Constitution to ask for his resignation, something that Giammattei did not do, but that Arevalo can do," says former foreign minister and political analyst Edgar Gutierrez.

Gutiérrez believes that, in this scenario, the head of the Public Prosecutor's Office will protect herself and put up resistance while waiting for the judicial system to protect her, which will generate tensions. "But with courts that act more independently, they can get it out. I think she's being left alone," says the former chancellor. "For her policy of criminal prosecution to be effective, Consuelo Porras needs to tango, she needs a partner, a compliant judicial system," he adds. "If the judges examine the cases and say: 'This is not sustainable, this is not proof, it is not indication,' and they begin to set limits on her, Consuelo Porras' ability to prosecute politically is going to be reduced."

For Gutierrez, it will also be essential for the president-elect to seek alliances and establish balances with indigenous movements, which have safeguarded democracy through their mobilizations, and with businessmen. "It has to learn to generate a political culture of relations with the private sector that is no longer based on privileges, as has been the case with all governments, but on rules of competition, respect for tax law and labor law," he says. In the case of indigenous peoples, he believes that the Executive must have a very active presence in the territories to mediate against the companies that come to exploit the resources.

"I believe that there is a before and after in the political life of the country and of the indigenous peoples as fundamental actors after these elections and after this process that we have been experiencing," says Congressman Castellanos, who is originally from a Mayan community (the Q'eqchi) of Cobán, in the department of Alta Verapaz (north). "From now on, indigenous peoples become a central actor in the country's decisions because it has been the indigenous authorities and community representatives who have come out to mobilize in defense of democracy."

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