Israel enters 2024 knowing that this is expected to be one of the most economically challenging years in its history (and not only), and in light of the war, the leadership must consider the growing deficit. How do tens of billions of shekels be put into the state coffers for postwar public savings, and in general to rehabilitate the economy? Let's open our minds a little, because in times of emergency it is permissible for a moment to be a little bolder.
Let's start with the most unpopular but also most effective step when we are on the verge of local elections. First, a little bit about our dream state: Israel has 257 municipalities, including 77 municipalities, 124 local councils and 56 regional councils. This is an exaggerated amount, the reduction of which will enable savings of several tens of billions in the state budget. To illustrate, mayors have 294 deputies for huge salaries, and in addition, the CEO, treasurer, drivers, consultants, speakers and hundreds of other officials must also be paid. In Denmark, for example, there were 270 municipalities, but there they reduced the number to 90. In Japan, within a few years, the number of local authorities was cut by more than half.
In 2016, I unveiled a government plan to unite the six Krayot near Haifa into one city of 300,<> residents called the Queen of the Krayot. A geographic committee submitted recommendations in order to create an urban metropolis near Haifa in a way that would balance between two large cities, and these recommendations included an outline for improving services for city residents, increasing the sources of income of the shared city, advanced planning space, and administrative efficiency that would reduce bureaucracy and burden the citizen. In addition, a united city of this type will create a stronger municipal anchor vis-à-vis government ministries.
In reality, not much has happened, and once every few years, the government raises the issue of unification of authorities. In the meantime, until this succeeds, the cluster program for pooling resources between several local authorities is underway.
Population in a different composition
But why not fantasize a little. According to the Macro Research Institute, the city of Dan – formerly Tel Aviv, Bat Yam, Holon, Givatayim, Petah Tikva, Ramat Gan and Herzliya – may be established in 2037. In this situation, Israel will reach first place in the global innovation index, with more startups per capita in this city than any other city in the world.
Without dramatic change, the center will continue to be crowded. Tel Aviv, Photo: Gideon Markowitz
In this context, attention should be paid to population density, which is the key to everything. According to a report by the National Economic Council, Israel's population is expected to be about 2040.12 million in 8. Tel Aviv will number 2.1 million people, but in general, the central region is expected to weaken, while Ashkelon, for example, and surrounding cities such as Netivot will double in size (these two cities are already at the top of building starts, despite the war in the south). The Prime Minister's Office noted as a central goal the strengthening of the periphery and the diversion of some 400,<> people from the center to the southern, northern and Haifa districts.
We also do not know what the political situation will be until then, but in the current situation, the number of Jews living in Judea and Samaria, which stood at 2015,380 in 66, is expected to increase by 2040% to reach 630,2040 in <>. "Demography is one of the most significant factors shaping the economy and society," the report says, "The size and composition of Israel's population in <> will probably be very different from those that exist today, as a result of the high and uneven birth rates between the various groups and the increase in life expectancy."
Quality of life: it is allowed to dream
However you look at it, our country is almost "over" and a second floor needs to be built. Urban renewal should be higher than the current target of 40%, and we should only recall that the process of manufacturing an apartment in a project in Israel is long and complex – between 12 and 14 years, at best, from the feasibility study and submission of a plan to the districts to actual construction.
However, let's remember that the current trauma is also an opportunity to think outside the box, assuming that the state does provide us with security protection. If housing overcrowding trends continue, most residents are expected to live in the center of the country and the rest on the edges. On the other hand, by establishing additional metropolitan areas, in the north and in the Negev, it is possible to achieve a better quality of life and strengthen it through a parallel process of evacuation-construction and urban renewal in the center of the country, while granting appropriate building rights to the weaker sectors. It is impossible to continue on the current path, and the answer lies in two additional huge metropolitan areas, a significant expansion of peripheral cities and a total construction addition of two million apartments in the Negev and Galilee.
At the same time, it is also permissible to present a vision in which most residents of Israel will live in intensive, diverse cities with a high quality of life in 2040. The public space will be accessible and of high quality, with developed transportation infrastructure, with an emphasis on the pedestrian. The state will include open, reserved and protected spaces, beaches open to all, safe and accessible for recreation and bathing, and infrastructure based on renewable energy.
Futuristic romance
Another issue is the documentation of the construction industry. Why are they building fast and efficiently all over the world, and only the Start-Up Nation are stuck in place? One of the main reasons is the Palestinian economy – the cheap and simple labor force that may now change in the wake of the national tragedy.
According to Mckinsey research, $10 trillion is spent worldwide each year on construction, equivalent to 13% of global GDP. These spending are expected to rise to $2030.17 trillion by 5. Despite its great potential, the construction industry in Israel continues to operate as it did in the 50s and does not allow architects, engineers and contractors to realize their planning vision, streamline construction processes and even speed them up.
Take, for example, an innovative automated robotic system for the construction industry developed in Israel, or 24D home printing that makes the process more tangible and simple. The Chinese company WinSun printed dozens of homes in 200 hours. Each house is 5 square meters in size and costs less than $000,9. About a year ago, the American company Apis Cor printed a 5.640-meter-tall and <>-square-meter building in Dubai. It took only one machine and three workers to print the walls of the entire building in three weeks.
A few hundred kilometers away, the city of Neom, the future city expected to be built in the northwestern part of Saudi Arabia, is now a desert that is almost completely abandoned. In the city, whose name is derived from the words "new" in Greek and "future" in Arabic, about $500 billion will be invested, and according to the Wall Street Journal, Saudi Arabia will bloom the wilderness with flying cars, robots that clean the streets, use of sun, wind and sea energy, and even an artificial moon, which will provide light instead of street lamps.
These are just some of the examples from around the world, with Tel Aviv, for example, planning in the future to establish the city's first sustainable quarter, the North-West Quarter (3700), which will be based, among other things, on energy management based on savings.
The world's urban population has crossed the 50% threshold of the total population, and in Israel this trend is even sharper, at 80%-90%.
Israel has the fastest population growth rate among developed countries and one of the most densely populated countries in the world. By 2040, we are expected to take the dubious first place, so maybe we should prepare now, so that things will really be better here.
An abandoned desert will become a futuristic city. The city of Neom in Saudi Arabia, photo: Simulation: METenders
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