Beyond vague statements about annexation, settlement and expulsion, the right has not produced an orderly, serious and meaningful plan for the day after the war in the Gaza Strip. The Americans, and part of the Israeli left, declare their intention clearly: the IDF's withdrawal from the Gaza Strip, the return of the Gaza settlers to the destroyed north, rehabilitation and a complete rejection of voluntary expulsion. There are those who add security elements such as a buffer zone along the Gaza Strip, and of course in no scenario is Israel involved in civilian management, but other Arab elements, from the PA to the engineered governments of the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia.
But while the prime minister prevents discussion and decision-making on the issue – and some will rightly say that since Hamas has not yet been eliminated and there is no reason to jump to discussions about the day after – other elements in the ruling party want to change the situation and put their own plan on the table.
The decisive plan of the Likud members, photo: .
The defense establishment has been pressuring the political echelon to discuss and make decisions about the day after for a long time. So do the Americans. The fear of the members of the group that initiated the "decisive plan" is that in the absence of an organized plan, other parties will enter the vacuum created that will try to lead to bad and dangerous scenarios.
The plan will be presented to the relevant members of the government and the rest of the Likud in order to turn it into a factional plan on behalf of the ruling party, in the hope that significant parts of it will be adopted by Benjamin Netanyahu and cabinet ministers.
Those leading the process are Minister Amichai Shikli and MKs Moshe Saada, Dan Illouz and Boaz Bismuth. The first two met with dozens of officials, such as former heads of the defense establishment, retired heads of the National Security Council (NSC), and other experts in the field of security and international law.
The plan was presented to other Likud members who expressed support for it, and as early as next week the minister and Knesset members intend to issue special leaflets with the details and bring them to the faction for discussion, with the participation of the prime minister and defense minister.
The main points of the plan: a thick security perimeter along the entire Gaza Strip border, between 3 and 5 km, on its eastern border. The Philadelphi route and the border with Egypt will be – via land and underground borders – under Egyptian responsibility, but with a significant axis under Israeli responsibility and a military presence north of Rafah. In addition, a hold on the Netzarim corridor, which will prevent access to the northern Gaza Strip and Gaza City until another Israeli decision on the matter, and in any case not before the settlement and rehabilitation of the communities near the Gaza Strip.
The northern Gaza Strip is off limits
If the plan is approved, the Gaza Strip will be smaller and narrower. There will be no Hamas regime and in fact no central government at all. In the south, Rafah is separated from the rest of the Gaza Strip. The Egyptians oppose an Israeli military hold on the Philadelphi Route, and the proposed plan bypasses Egyptian resistance and leaves the smuggling route in its hands. The Egyptians have the burden of proof, but even if they fail in their mission, the residents of Rafah will not be able to transfer their smuggled goods in. The IDF will sit on the route that is Rafah's northern border, from the fence to the sea, and every crossing will be fully supervised. The IDF will also not allow Rafah to become a nest of terror, and will enter and embark on defensive and offensive activity as necessary.
Israel will not allow the southern Gaza Strip to become a nest of terror. Rafah, Photo: AFP
In the central part of the Gaza Strip and the area of the central camps and Khan Yunis, there will be a different regime. The IDF surrounds the area from three directions (four if you add the navy), and reserves the right to enter when necessary. Above this area, in the northern part, at this stage mainly desolation and desolation. What was destroyed will not be rehabilitated, and residents of the area will not be allowed to return. At least as long as Hamas has not been completely dismantled, the residents of the envelope have not been rehabilitated and the abductees have not been returned.
Possession of the territory will be military, until another decision is made, which will probably be derived from the nature of the government at the time and the nature of the American administration. Some governments will evacuate, annex or return some of the Jewish settlements. This issue remains open until another decision is made.
The proposal does not talk about population expulsion, the occupation of Rafah or international controversial moves, and tries to skip as many of them as possible. The Americans are indeed demanding the return of the residents of northern Gaza to their homes, but there is a consensus in the Israeli leadership that in any case this is not possible at the moment. The same is true according to the plan. The nature of the perimeter, the eastern buffer zone that will be taken from the Gaza Strip and de facto annexed to Israel, is also not definitively defined.
According to Shikli, "The current war, which is unjust, must be the last in this region for the next fifty years. Most of the international pressure is to allow a return to routine in the Gaza Strip, with an emphasis on the north. In the face of this pressure, our statement must be: As long as there is one kidnapped person in Gaza, and as long as Hamas does not surrender completely and unconditionally, life in Gaza will not return to normal in the south, and no one will be able to return to his home in the north."
No free gifts
The storm of approval of the budget in the government and the demand for the closure of ministries and drastic cuts may prove to be the tip of the iceberg of political struggles within the coalition, which is already undergoing a difficult upheaval following the October 7 massacre and the war in Gaza. The current turmoil is not between the original coalition and the state camp – those who have recently arrived and are already showing signs of quitting – but within the original coalition of 64 seats from the right-wing camp.
It seems that the struggle to close small, made-up offices is on the way to a solution. Religious Zionism, Otzma Yehudit and Torah Judaism support the move in principle, which sparked a public outcry in the 2023 budget amendments approved about a month ago. But that's not the problem. Senior members of these parties are demanding that, together with the closure of the ministries, there will be a redistribution of government ministries – a reshuffle – since the key to dividing the portfolios from the day the government was formed is no longer relevant.
The Likud, for example, was supposed to have 14 ministers. In practice, he now has 19. Shas, according to the key, was supposed to receive five. In practice she has six. In arguments that have already reached the prime minister and the coalition chairman to reopen everything, it is said that while the Likud and Shas receive not only a higher number of ministers but also much higher positions such as security, foreign affairs, interior, health, etc., the other parties have smaller portfolios. Their demand is that the Likud and Shas reduce the number of ministers and transfer some of the senior portfolios to the small parties.
At the same time that elements in the Likud and Shas are demanding that the other parties give up the small portfolios such as tradition, heritage, settlement, and so on, those who are likely to pay the price are the same elements themselves. What began as insinuations and allegations has been sounding like explicit threats in recent days.
Netanyahu has already entered history as the first prime minister whose government fell because it did not pass a budget, but it was a deliberate move designed to dismantle the privatized government with Gantz and lead to elections. Now, the dissolution of the government due to the failure to approve a budget is not in Netanyahu's plans. The way things stand now, approving the previous budget amendments a month ago was small money compared to what awaits it in the coming weeks.
Not so fast
A month and a little ago, Labor Party Chairman Merav Michaeli held a press conference and announced early elections for the party's leadership, in which she would not run. She predicted that there will be a general election in 2024, saying that "in order to prepare, I am opening the party and intend to bring forward the primaries for the Labor leadership, and hold them in four months."
About an hour after the press conference, Michaeli sent a message to the party management, in which, along with thanking the members, she again emphasized that primaries would be held, concluding: "I am flying tomorrow to a security conference in Dubai. At the beginning of the week, when I return, we will hold a meeting."
Not rushing anywhere. Michaeli, Photo: Oren Ben-Hakon
The conference is over, the beginning of the week has arrived, so has the end. The following week also passed and the one after that. A month has passed, and we still haven't heard a sign of life from Michaeli. No board meeting, no primaries, no nothing. As if the press conference never took place. Knesset members, various candidates, conference members and activists began to think that Michaeli was working on them. Or regretted it.
Those who caught Michaeli for a difficult conversation were Pini Kabalo, the party's representative in the Histadrut, and another key activist, Shlomo Avitan. In an update to activists, Cabello wrote that "it was a difficult meeting... We demanded that she lay down the keys immediately and that she not have a hand in the election process. Those who failed will not be able to rehabilitate, she said this about Bibi. Unfortunately, she smeared us with dragging in time, even strengthened her office with another team, and there is an impression that she is not going anywhere."
"We demanded that Michaeli lay down the keys immediately and that she not have a hand in the election process," Pini Cabello said of the meeting with the retiring chairman. Unfortunately, it took time."
The party did not wait and began promoting the gathering of signatures for a conference. Agenda: Internal elections for party leadership. Michaeli doesn't leave alone, so she'll be shown the door out. This week, one of the activists, Shalom Daskal, sent the following message: "We are about to submit 1,280 signatures of conference delegates to the party chairman, demanding an extraordinary meeting, electronic voting on the detailed issues - including a date for the election of the party chairman and institutions. Any delegate who wishes to add his name to the accompanying letter to the signature box, who will confirm to me with his full name and ID card."
Only then did we hear the first sign of life from Michaeli. Kind of. In a message sent to the party's management this week, more than a month after announcing the primaries in which she would not run, she wrote: "Please enter in your calendar a (physical) board meeting on January 18, Thursday, between 1:12 and 00:14. The purpose of the meeting was to hold a dialogue and brainstorming ahead of the elections for the position of party chairman and its institutions. In the first part of the meeting, we will be updated on the state of the party, discuss various options and hear their thoughts. (The linguistic disruption in the original - M.T.)... The purpose of the meeting is to jumpstart the election process and try to reach joint fertilization."
If this was not enough to raise the eyebrows of the board members, who do not understand what discussions, joint fertilizations and options should be applied to for two and a half hours, in a management meeting that can be convened within a few days but is scheduled for another two weeks, the continuation has arrived: "At the same time, we will issue a call to party activists and supporters to submit proposals for the election structure. Significant proposals (which meet constitutional and operational thresholds) will be submitted and submitted to the party management for review. This is part of the desire to create an optimal election process." In a party with decades of experience and well-known bylaws, which has held snap elections more than once and not twice even within a month, what need is there for all of these?
"After this process (which will take place about three weeks), we will hold another management meeting to make decisions," Michaeli added, "If there is a need to convene another meeting, we will do so. We (as well as the faction members and key activists) have an important and critical role to play these days. Together, we must create an open, attractive, fair and democratic electoral process in order to lift the party to its rightful place."
A quick calculation made by the activists shows that the primaries promised for another four months will probably not take place in eight months. They don't understand what makes Michaeli hold onto the horns of the altar, they do know that they won't allow that to happen. As far as they are concerned, what should have ended in a dignified retirement may yet lead to an ugly impeachment.
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