The International Court of Justice in The Hague will publish today (Friday) at 14:00 Israel time its decision regarding South Africa's request for an interim injunction against Israel to prevent actions, which they claim may amount to genocide.
Before the High Court there are quite a few options for orders against Israel. The question is how harmful will be the one that is obtained. For example, an order to open an investigation into statements, an order for the free entry of humanitarian equipment, an order to limit combat operations or a declarative order to act according to international law. No Less important than the bottom line of the order, the details are important. The more the court specifies the conditions for the implementation of the order, whatever it may be, the less Israel's room for action will be.
Demonstration of the kidnapped families in front of the court in The Hague (archive) |
Netael Bandel
Even if the court issues an order for the cessation of hostilities, the question is how much and how the court will specify the manner of its execution.
For example, what is the cessation of hostilities, does it mean the withdrawal of all Israeli forces from Gaza, or for example leaving them in order to restore order only without hostilities?
As far as the meaning is the withdrawal of the forces, it is clear that it is not possible to withdraw in one day, will the court set a time frame for the implementation of the order and by how much.
Within the time period allotted for the withdrawal, is Israel allowed to continue fighting perhaps without advancing?
Even if a time frame is set, what is the fighting that must be stopped, are raid operations such as Israel carries out every night in Yosh prohibited? And if Hamas attacks Israel, is the order null and void? Is every attack by Hamas, or will its strength be defined? The state must protect About itself, in what way is Israel allowed to protect its citizens in view of the existence of a cease-fire order? It is now clear that the more severe the order, the more important its details. While the officers will maneuver in Gaza, the jurists and statesmen will have to maneuver between the clauses of the order.
Activity designed by the commando in Lev Khan Yunis, photo: IDF spokesman
Allegations of violation of the order will be discussed again by the court, and if it is determined that Israel has violated, its decision will be forwarded to the UN Security Council for a decision on the imposition of sanctions on Israel. The United States has so far used the right of veto granted to it in the council and prevented the imposition of such sanctions on Israel, but there is no Be sure that you will do so even in the presence of an explicit instruction of the court.
The political echelon will have to decide how far it is possible, if at all, to stretch the American rope.
UN institutions are important to the US.
Just this week, Israel was condemned for a military attack on one of UNRA's facilities in Gaza, even though many of UNRA's employees in the Gaza Strip are Hamas operatives who use UN infrastructure for terrorism. They will face a dilemma - the UN or Israel - and it is not certain what they will decide.
The expanded cabinet meeting (archive), photo: Haim Tzach, Deputy Prime Minister
Sanctions can be economic as well as military.
The IDF's armaments are not manufactured in Israel, there is already a severe shortage of them, as well as the spare parts for the Air Force planes. In fact, even without sanctions from the Security Council, a US decision is enough for Israel to be forced to end the fighting.
The more the U.S. continues to charge Israel, and the more it bears diplomatic costs because of it, certainly if Israel violates the order, the higher the price Israel will have to pay to the Americans. The price will be reflected in the question of "the day after in Gaza."
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