Now it was not enough for the great arrival of the Greens in the East. They have achieved a solid result in Brandenburg and in Saxony - but nothing more.
This result has two readings:
- The first is that they could not keep the federal trend in the East, that they have lost in fact, for example, in contrast to the European elections.
- The second is that despite escalating to the CDU / SPD fight against the AfD, they managed to land well above five percent in countries where they were in the extra-parliamentary opposition for years.
"Not only happy"
The Greens stick to the more optimistic reading. "We emerge stronger from the elections," says party leader Annalena Baerbock. Nevertheless, the election results, which have remained far below expectations, can not be completely discussed away. In the electoral districts of the lignite mining region of Lusatia, they have often remained under five percent both in Brandenburg and in Saxony. Upon request, Baerbock admits: "Of course you can not only be happy about this election result, not even as Greens."
It is clear that the Greens want to rule anyway. In both countries a power participation is considered probable. In Saxony, the CDU needs the Greens for a Kenya alliance (black-green-red), and in Brandenburg they would be present in both a possible Red-Red-Green coalition and a possible Kenya alliance. Only with an alliance of SPD, CDU and free voters in Brandenburg, which would be mathematically possible, the Greens would be missing.
The question is: how will these potential government participation affect the Greens?
At first glance, they could become a burden. For while the Greens in Brandenburg will probably negotiate red-red-green, they must come together in Saxony with the very conservative state association of the CDU. In both countries, the talks are extremely difficult.
- The lignite mining area Lausitz extends from southern Brandenburg to northern Saxony. In August, the Greens had presented their "immediate climate change program" and demanded that "by the end of 2022 at least about a quarter of lignite capacity" would be shut down. The dispute over the exit will probably have a say in the coalition negotiations. The Brandenburg Greens made a condition in advance: With them, there will be no new mines.
- Saxony also has potential for conflict in the areas of internal security and migration. The Greens, for example, do not want to introduce a Bodycam for police officers. Or the constant dispute over the safe countries of origin: So far, the Greens refuse to classify the Maghreb states as such. Saxony was so far for it.
Despite the adversities: The Greens seem to be looking forward to the possible government participation. For decades they have made politics in Brandenburg and Saxony only out of the opposition, if they were even represented in the state parliaments.
Greens want to stay on course - despite moderate election results
The motto "governing the main thing" has virtually been set since the election of the chairman duo Habeck and Baerbock anyway. They have thus achieved their greatest success in recent months, in Bavaria, Hesse, in the European elections. In the SPIEGEL interview party leader Robert Habeck said a few weeks ago: "We fill in the blanks left by the CDU and SPD." That actually says it all: The Greens want to continue to grow in all directions and represent this strategy offensively.
Also Baerbock stressed on Monday, one wants to stick to the current course. "To drive our own course, to say what is green politics, we see in recent years as relatively successful," she says - just as you want to pull in the Thuringian election campaign. There is elected on October 27.
The fact that the current results were relatively mau, the Greens declare themselves with the aim of voters to prevent the AfD as the strongest party. Therefore many SPD (in Brandenburg) and CDU (in Saxony) would have chosen. The Greens can not recognize their own mistakes.
Why?
The contentual softening that this strategy inevitably brings with it has not upset the voters of the party. On the contrary. So far, the flexibility in terms of content has been more of an advantage for the Greens. This can be seen above all in Baden-Württemberg and Hesse. There, the Greens have been in government for years, and have made decisions that are rather unpopular in their core milieus.
They supported the expansion of Frankfurt Airport in Hesse, and in Stuttgart they accept the construction of Stuttgart 21. In both federal states, after the first legislative period, they were able to register significant increases in the state elections.
However, the state elections in East Germany have shown a problem: if the Greens do not play for the first place, they could lose more with this strategy than they would like. Then their demands, which they simultaneously place on the left and on the right side of the middle, are increasingly arbitrary. They threaten to be regarded as stirrup holders of those already governing, as majority buyers. As a co-governor.
