The governors' elections in Kentucky, Mississippi and Virginia, are (mainly) about Trump

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(CNN) - It used to be said that "all politics is local". But not anymore.

Voters will choose politicians to lead the state government, but their feelings about President Donald Trump will be paramount. That will be widely seen in the elections for the Interior of Tuesday in Kentucky, Mississippi and Virginia.

Kentucky Republican Governor Matt Bevin would probably be an easy prey if Tuesday’s governor’s election were about him. The approval levels of their work have been continuously below their disapproval ratings. Even with a late recovery in their approval ratings, their net approval rating (approval - disapproval) is around -10 points.

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However, Bevin has overcome an early deficit against Democratic Attorney General Andy Beshear (whose father was governor). In an average of nonpartisan polls, Bevin actually runs a little ahead of Beshear, although the race is within the margin of error.

If Bevin achieves victory, it will be for Trump. The president won the state by approximately 30 points in 2016. His net approval rating is approximately +15 points in Kentucky in an average of recent polls.

The same story seems to be happening in Mississippi. Democratic Attorney General Jim Hood has been popular enough to be re-elected several times. He was ahead in the first polls of the race against Republican Lieutenant Governor Tate Reeves.

The survey, however, has changed in recent months. Reeves has risen about 5 points in an average of nonpartisan polls. Hood could take it out, although it seems much less likely than at the beginning of the year.

It is impossible to avoid thinking about the position that Trump has in the fact that Reeves is gaining ground. Trump won in Mississippi by approximately 18 points in 2016. His net approval is approximately +15 points, as in Kentucky.

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Hood and Beshear would probably have been much better if the elections took place last decade. It would have been easier for them to escape the partisan inclinations of their state.

After the 2009 elections, approximately 40% of the states had a governor of the opposing party that won the 2008 presidential elections in a given state. Currently, about 20% of the states have a governor of the opposite party that won the 2016 elections in that state.

If there was good news for Democrats on Tuesday, they are likely to leave Virginia. All seats in the House and the State Senate are at stake. Republicans, including vacancies, have a small majority of 20 to 19 seats in the Senate and a majority of 51-48 seats in the House.

However, those small majorities are in big trouble. Why? Trump has a net approval rating of -20 points in the state. In just two years, the Democrats made great strides in the State House. There is a good chance that they will settle the job tomorrow.

If the Democrats did well in Virginia, it could be a sign of what will come in 2020. In 2017, Democratic candidates for the Virginia State Chamber won the state popular vote by a little less than 10 points. A year later, the Democrats won the popular vote of the US House by a little less than 9 points. That is, the results of the Virginia Chamber in 2017 were slightly to the left of the intermediate results of 2018, although they are still highly predictive.

I would advise against reading the exact margin in Virginia too much. We do not know whether a presidential election can really predict presidential elections, even in these polarized times.

Even so, Kentucky, Mississippi and Virginia are probably an illustration that a now "all politics is becoming increasingly national."

2019 elections