Can the Right Win? • What is the prospect of another election? • How can Blue and White form a minority government? • What is the political path that will allow the Likud to form a government even without a majority in the right-wing bloc? • And does Gantz have a chance to persuade the right to turn his back on Netanyahu? • Israel selects for the third time in a year

• A minority government or a right-wing ultra-Orthodox government? Gantz and Netanyahu // Photo: EPA / ABIR SULTAN

Fourth elections, a decision by the right-wing bloc, a minority government or a Likud rebellion against Netanyahu are some of the possible scenarios just before the polls open for the 23rd Knesset.

The victory of the right bloc: Likud, Shas, right and Torah Judaism. Last time, this group numbered 55 seats, but this time before it (the 2019 elections) together with all of us managed to reach 60 seats. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's task will be fulfilled Tonight for the test when it becomes clear whether his efforts in recent weeks have borne fruit or not, in the case of 61 seats for the right-wing bloc together (the internal division is less relevant in this regard), Netanyahu will form a government and will later try to expand the coalition structure in the coming months. The opposition chairman and must try hard to maintain the integrity of his party while the Likud will try to bite the blue White and recruit MKs to government ranks.

Lack of decision between the blocs: Lack of decision between the blocs leading to further elections. This is the most talked about and most anticipated scenario in this election campaign. According to the results of the previous two rounds, and like the results of the polls over the past year, no bloc has 61 seats to form a government. Because of this, and because of the assessment that the parties may again dig into their positions this time and not agree to sit with each other in a unity government - we are expected in these circumstances to reach an election campaign in the fourth round in a row.

Minority government led by Blue and White: Last time Avigdor Lieberman and Israel Beitano faction, as well as individual MKs in the Blue and White faction, refused to form a minority government based on the joint list. However, that does not mean, and despite the repeated promises, this is not the case this time. Both Blue and White Chairman Benny Gantz and Israeli Chairman Bethany Lieberman pledged not to give a hand to the establishment of a government in support or abstention from Arab MKs, but other elements in the left bloc, including white-blue parties, do not rule it out. Only recently did Labor-Bridge-Meretz MK Amir Peretz say that a coalition of blue-white, Labor-bridge and Meretz and outside support of the joint list and Lieberman is something that is definitely at stake.

Likud government in collaboration with defectors from the left bloc: While this is a very pressing scenario, it should not be completely removed from the table. If Netanyahu achieves 60 seats and below for the right-wing bloc, before returning the mandate to form a government, the prime minister will try to recruit some MKs from the Blue and White ranks or Israel our home, in order to form a government anyway.

In the 2019 election campaign, Netanyahu tried on the last day to mobilize the Labor Party led by Avi Gabay for a coalition headed by him, but Gabay decided at the last moment not to enter the government and the Knesset was dissolved. Netanyahu will also try this time, in the event of a lack of a decision, to recruit MKs in a similar manner. However, the law makes it difficult for a party to resign, and such a move would impose sanctions on the same MK who resigned, such as the denial of the possibility that he would contest the subsequent Knesset on an existing list. This may discourage MKs from retiring a white paintbrush or our Israeli home and moving to the coalition.

The right block is falling apart: This is also a fairly tight scenario, but it should not be removed from the table either. In the event of a lack of determination, Gantz will try to break up the rightist bloc, a mission he failed the previous time, and join one of the ultra-Orthodox factions or the right-wing faction to the coalition headed by him.

It is estimated that such a scenario would be possible, if at all, only in the event that the rightist bloc unexpectedly discriminated and dropped from the current number of seats. Last time, Netanyahu thwarted the passage of the new right through Naftali Bennett's appointment as defense minister. It is estimated that now, the right block is still tighter and more cohesive than last time, so the disassembly task will become a much more difficult task this time.

Likud rebellion: Another scenario in the same direction is the attachment of Likud officials to the government of blue and white. Benny Gantz declares that this is his preferred option in the existing data - a government of blue-white and Likud without Netanyahu, but it seems that like the right-wing bloc, so too is the Likud more solid than last time. This is in the wake of the party's primaries, in which Netanyahu won a large majority.