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Written by: Chen Jingqi
2020-03-25 07:00
Last updated: 2020-03-25 07:04A new coronavirus pneumonia (commonly known as Wuhan pneumonia) epidemic is raging. The MTR announced last month that fares would be frozen until the end of this year. The Census and Statistics Department will announce tomorrow (26th) the nominal wage index of the transport industry in December last year. This data will be added to the MTR's plus or minus fare mechanism to get the actual fare adjustment of the new year.
According to the data currently available, the comprehensive consumer price index in December last year changed by 2.9% year-on-year. According to the equations of the mechanism, if the nominal wage index of the transport industry tomorrow records a drop of more than 1.7%, the MTR's original fare for the new year starting from June 1 will actually need to be reduced.
On Thursday (26th), the Census and Statistics Department will publish the nominal wage index for the transportation industry in December last year. By then, we will be able to know the adjustment of the MTR fare for the new year. (Profile picture)
On Thursday (26th), the Census and Statistics Department announced the change in the nominal wage index of the transportation industry in December last year. According to the direct driving equation of the MTR fare adjustment mechanism, the overall consumer price index change and the transportation industry nominal wage index change determine the overall Fare adjustment.
According to the currently known data, the comprehensive consumer price index changed by 2.9% in December last year, and this number is substituted into the equation to calculate:
0.5 x change in the comprehensive consumer price index in December last year (2.9%) + 0.5 x change in the wage index in December last year (published on Thursday)-productivity factor (0)-additional deductions (0.6%) = fare adjustment
1.45% + 0.5 y%-0.6% = fare adjustment
Based on the above equation, if the change in the nominal wage index of the transportation industry for December last year is announced by more than 1.7%, the MTR fare must be reduced. On the contrary, the change in the wage index is less than 1.7%, and the actual fare must be increased according to the mechanism. However, with reference to the wage index change of 3.9% in the third quarter of last year, it is unknown whether the fourth quarter will record a significant decline.
At the same time, MTR issued a press release last month announcing that in view of the great challenge caused by the new coronavirus epidemic to all sectors of the community in Hong Kong, it is announced that there will be no adjustments to MTR fares this year, and discounts or other arrangements will be used to reduce Keep the fare unchanged.
0.3% increase for 2021
However, although the MTR said that the fare for the rest of the year will not be adjusted, the actual fare increase of the MTR last year was 3.6%, only because the median change in household income in the fourth quarter of 2018 was 3.3%. The "capped" mechanism, so that the 0.3% increase will be reserved for the 2021/22 annual increase.
Therefore, if there is an increase in the actual MTR fare after the changes in the Transport Department's nominal wage index are announced on Thursday, the fare for this year will not increase for the time being. However, due to the "limited period" of frozen fares, starting from January 1 next year, in addition to taking into account the actual increase of MTR this year, it must also cover 0.3% of the "additional", which will be even greater.
On the other hand, if the changes in the Transport Department's nominal wage index are announced more than 1.7% on Thursday, based on past experience, MTR fares are expected to begin to reduce in June this year. However, starting from January 1 next year, taking into account the "additional" 0.3%, the reduction may be offset or the reduction may be reduced.
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