The opening of the Shazhong Line makes the East Rail more crowded?

01 point of view

Written by: Review Editor

2020-04-18 07:00

In order to solve the terrain limitation after the opening of the Shazhong Line across the sea, the East Rail Line will gradually switch to the Jiuka train from the middle of this year. However, at the press conference on Thursday (16th), MTRCL not only failed to explain the impact of the reduction in the number of vehicle cards on the passenger load, nor did it promise to encrypt the frequency, only emphasizing that the entire Tunma Line can be used for diversion. As the Hung Hom to Admiralty section is expected to open to traffic in the first quarter of 2022, it is the responsibility of both the SAR Government and the MTR Corporation to carefully assess the above-mentioned impacts, so as not to dig wells after opening to traffic, which may cause inconvenience to passengers.

The South-North Corridor of the Shazhong Line (that is, the section from Hung Hom to Admiralty) is expected to be opened to traffic in the first quarter of 2022. (Profile picture)

According to Ms. Huang Kunwei, the head of MTR train operations, the second phase of the Shazhong Line, that is, the cross-harbour section from Hung Hom to Admiralty, was restricted by terrain and could not accommodate the current 12-card train operating mode. After the system, it will gradually change to nine-car train. However, the new model will have an impact on the passenger capacity and service level. MTR has not provided a numerical explanation, only referring to the replacement of the initial train to Hung Hom as far as possible to maintain the 12-card train, and believes that the Tunma Line Phase 1 (Tai Wai to Kai Tak) is able to divert passengers from the East Rail Line.

Busy shifts are difficult to achieve

After the upgrade of the new signal system, the frequency of the East Rail Line during peak hours can be encrypted from the current 3 minutes to 2 minutes, but the implementation may not be so smooth. First, after replacing the new signal system in the middle of this year, the East Rail Line will operate in a mixed fleet mode. However, due to the different door positions of 9-card and 12-card trains, it may be necessary to use passenger flow control to help passengers get on and off the train at the beginning, and increase train stops. Station time; moreover, as in the current situation of the Tsuen Wan Line and the Hong Kong Island Line during peak hours, passengers "rushing through the door" and overcrowding and unable to close the door sometimes occur, even though the MTR has adjusted the frequency to 2 minutes , But in fact it is still difficult to achieve.

In addition, the MTR serves more than 5 million passengers per day, of which the busiest section of the East Rail Line (Ta Wai to Kowloon Tong) in the morning peak period in 2017 was 57,800 passengers per hour, if converted to stand per square meter The load factor of 4 people is as high as 94%, which is close to the saturation stage. On the contrary, considering the crowding situation of the Fanling, Taihe and Shatian stations during the peak hours before the epidemic, the above MTR representative's remarks are overly optimistic, let alone counting the future population increase.

East Rail passenger saturation

In the long run, population growth is also a factor that cannot be ignored. According to the population distribution projections of the Planning Department, the total population of Hong Kong will increase to 7.9 million in 2028. Although the range is still moderate compared with the base of 7.45 million in 2018, most of the growth will fall in the New Territories. Huge traffic demand. Taking the East Rail as an example, the population of Fanling and Sheung Shui New Towns will increase from about 260,000 in 2018 to about 294,000 in 2028; Tai Po will increase from about 274,400 to 310,000 Yu; and Sha Tin also increased from about 477,000 to about 490,000. In other words, excluding the remaining sections of the Central Sand Line, such as the increase in population in the Kai Tak New Development Area, whether the MTR's new line can fully divert the saturated passenger capacity of the East Rail after the opening of the new line is really a big question.

Admittedly, the opening of the Central Saudi Arabian Line has undoubtedly brought multiple travel options for the public and has also shortened the distance between the New Territories and the urban area. It is difficult to tell in detail that it is ready for opening to traffic. In addition, in order to avoid operation impacts due to emergencies such as technology and flow control, the above two departments may consider preparing contingency plans at the initial stage of opening to traffic, such as setting up a shuttle bus route, so as to avoid digging wells after the traffic is open, and make a comprehensive solution.

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Shazhong Line East Rail Line 01 View MTR