Israel has accumulated a host of tactical achievements - the last of which was attributed to the attack on Tuesday - but the road to victory goes a long way. • Iran will continue to act, and will also hurt.
The threshold that Israel has set itself is very high: to keep Iran out of Syria. Not to curtail, inhibit or restrict its activities - but to stop it. Completely.
Many in Israel are convinced that there is now an exceptional time to succeed during such a time. A security official even spoke explicitly yesterday that, for the first time since entering Syria, Iran is reducing forces and clearing bases. The information itself is true, but the conclusion may be hasty. One needs a high degree of optimism to believe that a significant previous sequence of attacks attributed to Israel will cause the Iranians to raise a white flag without a fight.
There is no doubt that Iran is in serious trouble. The economic crisis there is very acute, as a result of a combination of overbearing economic sanctions and the collapse in oil prices. Hezbollah, Assad or the Houthis in Yemen are not of interest to the Iranian public. He wants food and he wants work. The Corona epidemic - which has hit Iran more than any other country in the region - has exacerbated the crisis of trust between it and the regime, which was not at its peak either.
Kassem Suleimani's assassination also makes life difficult for Iran. Suleimani was a major: a security strategist and a political wizard. Without it, reality is far more complex. His replacement, Ismail Kaani, while exhibiting greater activity and ability than he appreciated when he entered his predecessor's shoes, Suleimani is not, nor will he be.
Israel wants to take advantage of this Iranian plight to put facts on the ground. To attack anywhere and any target identified as Iranian-military, to embarrass life and make it realize that the price it pays is higher than what it might receive. Or in Defense Minister Bennett's words: "For Iran, Syria is an adventure 1,000 miles from home. For us, this is life, so we are much more determined."
On the face of it, this strategy is worthy. The target - the exclusion of the Iranians - is also justified. Tehran has nothing to look for in the region, apart from wreaking terror and destruction.
If Israel leaves her at rest, she will discover a monster in front of her that might present an existential challenge to us. This is what Iran has been trying to do in recent years, and to prevent it, Israel has acted thousands of times in recent years.
Now Israel is taking another step forward, in a stated way. Bennett explicitly warned yesterday that "Iranian soldiers who come to Syrian soil and work there, bleed their heads." This is not a mere threat: Israel means what it says, and is ready to fight for that and on the way to take a toll on Syria.
The problem is that Iran is serious too, and its not sure its direction is to fold its tail. The Iranians have already proven in the past that they are determined, sophisticated and stubborn: expel them from the door - and they will come out the window, then the chimney. Now that airports are also being attacked frequently, they will find an alternative route for that.
While Israel has amassed a host of tactical achievements - the latest in an attack attributed to it last night - the road to victory in the campaign is still a long way off. Iran will continue to act, and it will also hurt. A campaign that began with the rise of the Ayatollah Khomeini to power 41 years ago will not end in an instant, just because someone in Israel decided it would be so.
