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Biden supporters in the retirement settlement The Villages in Florida: In 2016, the majority of retirees voted for Donald Trump
Photo: CHANDAN KHANNA / AFP
Will Joe Biden become the 46th President of the United States?
In some surveys he is clearly ahead.
But the ex-Vice President and his Democrats will not rely on the values.
Or will Donald Trump secure a second term in the November 3rd election?
His base still sticks to him.
But that alone will not be enough for re-election;
Trump has to develop further constituencies.
Whether the incumbent or his challenger Biden prevails in the end could depend on the voting behavior of certain groups.
It is worth paying particular attention to these:
Suburban women
White suburban women were partly responsible for Donald Trump's entry into the White House in 2016, according to a study by the Pew Research Center, 47 percent of white women voted Trump in 2016, only 45 percent voted for Hillary Clinton.
Suburban women are a competitive group of voters.
In the past, the majority of them voted Republican, but that has changed: According to a poll by the Washington Post, 62 percent of suburban women want to vote for Biden.
It's different with their men: 54 percent want to vote for Trump on November 3rd, only 43 percent want to vote for Biden.
Results in a gender gap of 19 percentage points.
The suburb is no longer a monolithic block.
That is also related to demographic development.
The proportion of white suburban residents has fallen by eight percentage points since 2000, and 32 percent of the population is now not white.
Experts see the main reason for the alienation of suburban women from the Republicans in Trump's personality.
"They do not like Donald Trump's style; they think he is a ruffian, they think he is divisive," said Democratic strategist Celinda Lake of the news platform "Vox.com".
Suburban women hated chaos, they wanted stability.
In all swing states, suburban women are an important group of voters.
The choice could be yours.
Black voters
This year, more black Americans could vote than ever before: 30 million are eligible to vote.
More than a third of them live in nine states that could be critical to the outcome: Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Trump won all of these states in 2016 - albeit in some cases with a wafer-thin majority.
Blacks could bring about change this time around as a majority of them favor Joe Biden.
According to the "United States Elections Project", more than 90 million US citizens have already cast their votes as part of the "early voting".
There is a high turnout among blacks - especially in states like North Carolina and Georgia.
This could benefit Biden, although the Democrat himself does not cause euphoria in this group of voters.
According to a summer survey, young blacks in particular were undecided.
Many of them do not like Trump, but can also not be enthusiastic about Biden.
White women with no college degrees
Whites without higher education voted overwhelmingly for Donald Trump in 2016.
Sixty-four percent voted for him, with less than a third of non-college whites voting for Hillary Clinton.
The majority of white men without college degrees still support Trump.
But white women without college degrees are showing signs of turning away from Trump: According to an NPR poll from early October, 47 percent of this group of voters want to vote for Biden, and 50 percent want to vote for Trump.
White women with no higher education made up around 20 percent of the electorate in 2016.
If these polls prove to be true, it will be difficult for Trump to win the election.
Latinos
Latinos are likely to form the largest non-white group of voters for the first time this year.
Especially in the "Battleground States" Florida and Arizona, your voting behavior is likely to be decisive.
The growing importance is not only an expression of the increasing diversity in the country;
Latinos, for their part, are an extremely diverse group.
The heterogeneity is also reflected in their political preferences: a 2018 poll by the Pew Research Center found that voters with Puerto Rican and Mexican roots tended to favor Democrats (65 and 59 percent, respectively), while Cubans (57 percent ) more likely to vote Republicans.
Nowhere is this more evident this year than in Florida.
The Cubans, who make up the largest Latino electoral bloc in the state, prefer Trump.
Biden wants to make up for this deficit by convincing Puerto Ricans of himself.
They form the second largest group and are traditionally devoted to the Democrats;
Nevertheless, enthusiasm for Biden did not want to set in among them in the end.
The situation in Texas seems similar: According to a survey by the "New York Times" and Siena College, Biden's growth among white suburban residents in the largest state in terms of area is partly put into perspective by the fact that his lead among Latinos is not as great as the Clintons four years ago .
Accordingly, Hispanics in particular could help Trump to hold the endangered former bastion of the Republicans.
However, polls in Texas have been particularly volatile in recent years.
Nationwide, according to the latest Pew survey, Biden is 34 percentage points ahead of Trump among Latinos.
In 2016, Clinton was still 38 points ahead of the group.
Surveys by the "New York Times" show a particularly large "gender gap" among Latinos: while Biden leads with 59 to 25 percentage points among women, his lead among men is only eight points.
Another interesting question will be about voter turnout.
A Pew poll conducted in early October found that the proportion of very motivated voters among Latinos is lower than in the US population as a whole.
pensioner
In the 2016 presidential election, more than a quarter of all voters were over 65: Retirees are one of the most important groups of voters in the United States.
At that time, a majority of them voted for Donald Trump, he won with 53 to 44 percent.
Retirees are powerful again this year, especially in states like Florida where many of them have retired and where earnings are often tight.
Apparently, many seniors have turned their backs on Trump in recent years: In the 2018 midterm elections, the Republicans performed significantly worse among older voters than two years earlier.
According to surveys, a majority of people over 65 are now considering voting for Biden.
Many criticize Trump's handling of the corona virus, which is particularly dangerous for the elderly.
Some see the fact that Trump repeatedly downplayed the virus as a mockery of their concerns.
Evangelicals
Donald Trump is divorced several times, had an affair with a porn actress.
He used to want women to decide whether to have a child.
All reasons that should actually make him ineligible for evangelicals.
Even so, in the election four years ago, 77 percent of evangelical white voters voted for Trump.
His approval ratings are still particularly high in this group, most recently they were 72 percent among white evangelicals, despite the corona crisis, which has so far killed more than 225,000 people in the United States.
Trump does not seem to like evangelicals very much.
Republican Senator Ben Sasse told his constituents that the president was making fun of evangelicals behind closed doors.
Michael Cohen, the president's former attorney, said Trump said, "Can you believe this bullshit" after meeting evangelicals who prayed with him and put their hands on him?
You stand by him, especially because of the appointment of judges.
Shortly before the election, Trump and the Republicans summoned the ultra-conservative judge Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court, the highest court in the United States.
Evangelicals hope that liberal abortion law will now be curtailed and the legalization of marriage for gay and lesbian couples reversed.
White men
White men, especially those with no college degrees, were a major contributor to Trump's election victory in 2016.
According to an analysis by the Pew Research Center, he was 30 percentage points ahead of Hillary Clinton in the overall group, which made up a third of the entire electorate.
For those without a college degree, it was 50.
According to surveys, Trump's lead is still clear this year, but not nearly as great as four years ago.
In the latest Pew poll, the president leads white men by twelve points.
Among those without a college degree, he is 26 points ahead of Biden: a good result from Trump's point of view, but nowhere near as good as in the previous election.
According to Pew, however, Biden clearly leads among white men with college degrees: his lead is 21 points.
This gives him a slightly better result than Clinton, whose lead in this group was 17 points four years ago.
Young voters
Voter turnout has traditionally been low among young people.
This year, according to recent polls, it will be different.
A Harvard poll published eight days before the election concluded that interest in voting among 18 to 29-year-olds this year is greater than ever in the 20-year history of the poll.
63 percent of the participants said that they "will definitely vote".
Four years ago it was 49 percent - the value came very close to the actual participation determined after the election: According to a Brookings analysis, this was 50 percent.
In the latest Harvard poll, Biden led Trump by 63 to 25 percentage points among those 18 to 29 year olds likely to vote.
Among all people in this age group, he got 50 percentage points, Trump 26.
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