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The polls on the eve of the US presidential election

2020-11-02T22:38:45.236Z


The polls have for months placed Democrat Joe Biden in the status of the frontrunner in the presidential election in the United States, but Republican Donald Trump says he will make them lie as in his surprise victory in 2016. Read also: US Presidential: should we believe the polls that give Trump the loser? Here is the update on the last voting intentions Monday, November 2, on the eve of the p


The polls have for months placed Democrat Joe Biden in the status of the frontrunner in the presidential election in the United States, but Republican Donald Trump says he will make them lie as in his surprise victory in 2016.

Read also: US Presidential: should we believe the polls that give Trump the loser?

Here is the update on the last voting intentions Monday, November 2, on the eve of the poll.

Nationwide: Biden in the lead

According to the average of opinion studies established by the site RealClearPolitics, Joe Biden, with 50.7% of the voting intentions, has a lead of 6.8 points over Donald Trump (43.9%).

This advantage has remained broadly stable over the months, even if it has sometimes reached peaks of around ten points.

The current lead is more than double what Hillary Clinton had on the eve of the vote four years ago.

At the time, the polls were relatively fair regarding the popular vote, which the Democrat won.

Read also: US Presidential: Does Donald Trump still have a chance of being reelected?

In the key states, it's tighter

To gain access to the White House, however, it is a majority of state-by-state elected voters that must be won.

Attention is therefore focused on a handful of key states likely to move from one camp to another.

And this year they are more numerous.

Joe Biden is comfortably ahead of Donald Trump in the polls in

Michigan (+5.1 points)

and

Wisconsin (+6.6 points)

, two states in the north of the country won to everyone's surprise by the Republican billionaire four years ago , contributing to his victory.

In

Pennsylvania

, one of the most watched states in this election, it has a lead,

2.9 points

, within the margin of error.

In the key southern states, voting intentions are much tighter.

In

Florida

, which Donald Trump must at all costs keep if he does not want to destroy his chances of a second term, the candidates are neck and neck

(+1.7 points for Joe Biden)

: the Democrat is ahead according to the latest New York Times / Siena poll

(+3 points)

, but according to the Washington Post / ABC News

poll

,

the Republican leads (+2 points

).

Same situation in

Arizona

(+0.5 points on average for Joe Biden)

.

In

North Carolina

, the curves have crossed on the home stretch, and now give

Donald Trump

a

slight lead of 0.5 points

.

Read also: Presidential: America fears a vote punctuated by violence

Other specialist sites, such as FiveThirtyEight, calculate their averages differently and show final figures noticeably more favorable to the Democrat everywhere.

In key states, however, polls labeled Republican more often give the incumbent president the edge.

These organizations, like Trafalgar, are accused of being partisan and of using questionable methodology by several observers and pollsters, but they themselves pride themselves on seeing Donald Trump's victory coming in 2016.

Even if the latest state-by-state poll averages were as wrong as they were four years ago, Joe Biden would still win.

But he is not immune to an even greater error.

Source: lefigaro

All news articles on 2020-11-02

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