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The Capitol in Washington, the seat of the US Senate
Photo: J. Scott Applewhite / AP
The result of the presidential election is still a long way off, but Joe Biden has probably already suffered a defeat: The Democrats are unlikely to win the majority in the Senate.
That would be a triumph for Donald Trump and the Republicans.
Even if Biden wins the presidency, he will find it difficult to dispose of Trump's poisoned legacy.
A democratic president would do a lot differently.
But he would not be able to usher in a new age.
The House of Representatives remains in democratic hands.
But without a majority in the second chamber of Congress, if Biden wins, he will not be able to pass any relevant law.
He would need the approval of the Republicans for an economic stimulus package in the corona crisis, for the reform of health insurance, for a fundamental change in climate policy.
He won't get it.
"It would be hard to get any law through Congress at all"
Above all, it would be difficult for Biden to enforce even a federal judge of his choice.
The Supreme Court also remains firmly in conservative hands.
Likewise, if one of the Republican-appointed judges dies or is eliminated, they can only be replaced with the approval of Trump's party.
The addition of two, three or four judges to the Supreme Court, with which President Biden could have balanced the right list of the court, is off the table.
"If Biden wins, we would have a split in power in a tense and polarized situation," Princeton University historian Julian Zelizer explains when asked.
"It would be hard to get any law through Congress at all."
Biden would then have to rule with regulations.
Trump has shown how to do this.
In the first 100 days of his tenure, he issued more executive orders than any other post-war president.
However, the vast majority of these concerned secondary issues.
Biden could also regulate a few important things by ordinance.
He could tighten climate regulations that Trump has weakened.
He could liberalize his predecessor's repressive immigration policy.
But despite everything, he would remain half a president.
Mitch McConnell will take care of that.
The Republican majority leader has been re-elected by a clear majority in Kentucky.
Even before the election he made it clear that he would pursue a policy of blockade under a democratic president.
Under Barack Obama, he has shown that he is serious about this.
When the Republicans won a majority in the Senate in 2014, Obama was unable to get any more important laws through.
The Senate also consistently refused to approve the judges that Obama had appointed.
More than 100 posts in the federal courts remained unfilled.
McConnell said in 2010 that his most important goal is to ensure that Obama will rule for only one legislative period.
He would pursue the same goal under a President Biden.
But who says Biden wins?
If Trump stays in office, he could intensify his attack on the democratic rules of the game without fear of consequences.
Since the impeachment process failed, Trump has known that his party will let him get away with any border crossing.
McConnell even prevented witnesses from being heard in the Senate, a one-off break with parliamentary practice.
The majority of Republicans will shrink somewhat, but as long as former presidential candidate Mitt Romney is the only one who has the courage to at least occasionally oppose the presidential abuse of office, that will not change.
But McConnell could continue to pursue his most important goal: He could fill any position in federal courts with candidates of his choice.
For years to come, it will then be less decisive who wins the election.
There are enough conservative judges who can defend Republican policies.
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