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Green chairwoman Annalena Baerbock, CSU boss Markus Söder (in February 2020 on the ARD program "Anne Will"): Future coalition partners?
Photo: Wolfgang Borrs / dpa
Markus Söder definitely feels like it.
Already at the end of last year, the CSU boss was promoting a black-green alliance in the SPIEGEL, spoke of a "great attraction" and called a possible coalition "currently the most interesting political offer" (read the double interview with Söder and Green chief Robert Habeck here) .
A few days ago he again pleaded for black and green in the »Stern«.
Söder obviously hits the nerve of the times with his mind games.
Because in the population, a black-green alliance in the federal government meets with great approval.
Black and green are becoming voters' favorites
When asked which party the Union should consider as a coalition partner at the federal level, a third voted in favor of the Greens.
Almost a quarter of those questioned voted for the FDP.
That is the result of a representative survey conducted by the opinion research institute Civey on behalf of SPIEGEL among around 5000 people in Germany.
(Read the background to the Civey method here.)
Around 16 percent of those questioned were in favor of a continuation of the grand coalition with the SPD, and almost 14 percent would like a coalition of the Union and AfD.
One in ten people could not choose an alliance at all.
With regard to the differences in East and West, there are few changes for most parties - except for the Greens and the AfD.
Almost 18 percent of the respondents from the East advocate a government coalition made up of the Union and AfD, and around 22 percent want to see black and green here.
In the West, however, significantly fewer (13 percent) are in favor of an alliance between the Union and the AfD, and significantly more (35 percent) want a coalition of the Union and the Greens.
Broken down by supporters of the parties, there are some surprises: The camp of Union supporters is divided on the coalition issue between those who prefer an alliance with the FDP and those who want to form an alliance with the Greens.
For many years the Liberals were the preferred partner for many supporters of the Union, now around a third of the CDU and CDU supporters each vote for the FDP - or for the Greens.
Around 23 percent of Union sympathizers would like to continue a grand coalition with the SPD, only four percent voted for a coalition with the AfD.
Coalition dreams among the Greens and the FDP
Not surprising, however, is a look at the camps of the FDP and the Greens themselves. Around 80 percent of the supporters there are in favor of an alliance between their own party and the Union.
Other coalitions hardly play a role.
Supporters of other parties also like black and green.
A good 30 percent of supporters of the Left Party believe that the Greens are the best partner for the Union, and almost 20 percent even want a partnership with their own party, which is virtually excluded.
A third of the SPD supporters want the grand coalition to continue, but a quarter can also imagine a black-green coalition.
The picture among AfD supporters is also clear: three quarters of those surveyed want to see their own party as a partner of the Union, around 16 percent can imagine black and yellow.
A black-green coalition would be unsurprisingly a desirable option for hardly any AfD supporter.
Union leads on Sunday issue
A coalition of the Union and the Greens would have an advantage: It would probably not need another government partner.
All other conceivable coalitions would need at least one other partner in view of current surveys.
What are the current chances for black and green?
For SPIEGEL, Civey also surveyed current voting preferences.
Around 10,000 people in Germany were asked who they would vote if the general election took place next Sunday.
The Union has the highest share with a third of the votes.
Around one in five respondents would vote for the Greens.
15 percent would vote for the SPD, around 10 percent for the AfD.
The FDP and Left Party each have just under 8 percent.
Mathematically, only black-green would have a majority.
The grand coalition of the Union and the SPD, on the other hand, would no longer be that big and would not reach the 50 percent mark.
Even black-yellow or a red-red-green coalition would not have a majority, according to the current survey.
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