Ungovernability in Haiti would last for years, says analyst 2:49
(CNN Spanish) -
The assassination of the president of Haiti, Jovenel Moïse, which occurred at dawn this Wednesday in Port-au-Prince, has shaken the Caribbean country and generated a series of questions about its future.
"The security situation in the country is under the control of the National Police and the Armed Forces of Haiti. (...) All measures are being taken to guarantee the continuity of the State and protect the Nation," he reported in a Interim Prime Minister Claude Joseph communicated, to conclude that "democracy and the Republic will win."
The situation is even more complex amid a multi-year political crisis, because Moïse had appointed Dr. Ariel Henry as the new prime minister on Monday to replace Joseph, although he had not yet been sworn in.
World leaders and international organizations react to the assassination of the president of Haiti
"We are in a situation now whereby we have two prime ministers. A prime minister who is in office, and another legally appointed by the president of the Republic. So which of those two prime ministers should take the reins of the country", Jean Wilner Morin, president of the National Association of Haitian Judges, told CNN.
The profile of Jovenel Moïse, killed during an attack 1:18
What then comes next for Haiti?
Haiti's political system is semi-presidential.
The Executive Power is made up of the President, elected by popular vote for a five-year term, and the Prime Minister, elected by the President from among the members of the party with an absolute majority in Parliament, as established in the Haitian Constitution, proclaimed in 1987 and revised in 2012.
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In case of "vacancy" of the president due to "resignation, dismissal or permanent physical or mental incapacity", the Council of Ministers, chaired by the prime minister, must exercise the Executive Power until the election of the new president within a period of no more than 120 days, according to the Magna Carta.
Geovanny Vicente-Romero, a strategist and political analyst based in the United States, believes that it is most likely that Joseph will assume the interim presidency and that Henry will swear in the position to which he had been appointed by Moïse.
"However, history tells us that there will be riots and riots, and in Haiti the fund has no limit from its conception as a country: it began in crisis, developed in crisis and continues in crisis," he says.
What is expected in the short term?
"In the short term, we must bear in mind that the protests will continue in Haiti and it will not be easy for the authorities, since they will be seen without legitimacy because they are appointed by Jovenel," says Vicente-Romero.
"There is an immense political and social chaos in that country, with years of delay in human development and poverty," he adds.
Ambassador of Haiti urges the people to remain calm 1:02
After then-President Michel Martelly resigned in 2016, following elections with allegations of fraud and strong protests in the streets over living conditions, Haiti entered a political crisis.
The protests intensified in later years, amid accusations of corruption against the government over the Petrocaribe case, a fund financed by Venezuela.
Moïse refused to be involved in the case, claiming that the controversial contracts had been signed in Martelly's time.
Mauricio Jaramillo, senior professor of Political Science, Government and International Relations at the Universidad del Rosario (Colombia), also believes that Joseph and Henry will probably try to lead the country, but that it will be "very difficult for someone to take the reins."
"Most likely, Joseph will be the visible face that dignifies Henry with governance. What they have to do is convene a government of national unity," he says.
"We are going to attend a figure of shared power."
"They will have to organize elections in a relatively short period, while there is little confidence in the electoral system," he highlights as a challenge.
Haiti: political instability, cholera outbreak, devastating earthquake, assassination of the president.
What you should know about the country
For Jorge Dávila Miguel, political analyst and columnist at CNN en Español, "the assassination of the president is, by all accounts, a mercenary attack organized from abroad, which has not been claimed," echoing the statements of the Haitian ambassador to the United States. .UU., Bocchit Edmond, who referred to the participation of "mercenaries" who would speak Spanish.
"The main cause of the problem and the violence of this act indicate that it is clearly a struggle for power," said the analyst.
"The Haitian State is very weak and despite the recent declarations of the Haitian Ambassador Bocchit Edmond, that Haiti is not a failed State, let me tell you: if it is not already an ambassador, it is on the verge of being one," he adds.
Is Haiti a Failed State?
Haitian Ambassador to the US Responds 1:02
Another possible successor, killed by covid-19
The 2012 Haitian Constitution no longer stipulates this, but the 1987 version established that the president of the Supreme Court should replace the president in case of "vacancy" and not the prime minister.
Jean Wilner Morin, president of the National Association of Haitian Judges, told CNN that this is what "normally" should happen.
But there would be another problem ... René Sylvestre, who held the position, recently died after contracting COVID-19 and was replaced by Vice President Jean-Claude Théogène.
Morin also recalled the precedent of 2015, when the president of the Chamber of Deputies replaced President Michel Martelly.
But that position is also vacant after the dissolution of Parliament in 2012.
The memory of the Minustah
"The future is not promising at this time, Haiti will regain impact on the international agenda, it will generate urgent meetings of multinational security organizations, especially the United Nations (UN) and the Organization of American States (OAS). Now The security of the region itself is at risk, "adds Vicente-Romero.
After the 2004 military coup, the UN Security Council approved the United Nations Mission for Stabilization in Haiti (Minustah), in force between 2004 and 2017 and which meant the dispatch of "blue helmets" to guarantee internal order. .
USA condemns the assassination of Jovenel Moïse 1:47
Asked about the possibility of a new international intervention, Vicente-Romero points out that Haiti "is a country whose politics and stability have been reeling, it has had many governments and long dictatorships. International intervention from the point of view of the international community is necessary. ", He says.
"Haiti is going to need all the possible help, both in the technical, logistical and public order matters. The withdrawal of the Minustah was a great setback. I believe that the environment is going to give for this need to come back again", considers.
Jaramillo, for his part, points out that, although the conditions may be in place, it is necessary to remember that with the antecedent of the Minustah "it is difficult to think that a multinational force solves problems that can only be solved by a peaceful political transition."
"Here it seems to me that the great interest of a (multinational) force is to rebuild the political dialogue, which has been interrupted since 2015," says Jaramillo.
"Attacking the problem is rather out there, and in the elections all sectors must participate."
The impact on the region
Jaramillo recalls that Haiti is an issue that worries the United States a lot, which has been very involved in the country, especially since the second coup against Jean-Bertrand Aristide in 2004 and later, in the aid after the destruction caused by the earthquake. 2010.
"More with Joe Biden, with the 'America is back' policy, Haiti is likely to return to the US agenda."
Caribbean countries are also likely to try to get involved with the transition under US leadership, Jaramillo argues.
Psaki expresses support for Haiti after Moïse assassination 0:40
While for the rest of the region the role of the OAS will be important, which until now had shown "silence" regarding the events in Haiti, "with a very quiet secretary general, unlike (what happens with) Venezuela and Bolivia. "says Jaramillo.
"One would expect more commitment," he adds.
Vicente-Romero also highlights the role that the Dominican Republic could assume due to its territorial proximity (they share the island of Hispaniola), historical migration and commercial exchange.
Meanwhile, Dávila Miguel points out that "due to the permanent crisis situation in Haiti, and its restrained commercial relations with countries in the region, unfortunately this will be seen as another normal political crisis and barbarism in the long list of sad critical events in the Caribbean country ".
Controversies in the government of Jovenel Moïse
The Haitian Constitution prohibits the immediate reelection of the president, who must wait a period of five years before running.
Moïse was promoting a constitutional reform to strengthen his presidency and a constitutional referendum is scheduled for September 26.
For Jaramillo, this consultation as one of the central points of the Moïse government will be suspended: "I believe that without the support of the late Jovenel, it will be difficult to have the support."
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Jovenel Moïse was killed at his residence during an armed attack.
Look in this gallery for some images of his political life.
(Credit: Franklin Jacome / Getty Images)
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Jovenel Moïse assumed the presidency of Haiti in February 2017. (Credit: HECTOR RETAMAL / AFP via Getty Images)
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Jovenel Moïse shared the Caribbean Leaders Summit with Donald Trump in 2019.
(Credit: NICHOLAS KAMM / AFP via Getty Images)
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Another image of the summit with Trump and other Caribbean leaders in Mar-a-Lago in 2019. (Credit: NICHOLAS KAMM / AFP via Getty Images)
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Jovenel Moïse speaks during the 2018 UN General Assembly (Credit: John Moore / Getty Images)
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Jovenel Moïse on the day of his inauguration as president of Haiti with his predecessor, Jocelerme Privert.
(Credit: HECTOR RETAMAL / AFP) (Photo by HECTOR RETAMAL / AFP via Getty Images)
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Jovenel Moïse celebrates his triumph in the 2016 elections in Haiti.
(Credit: Héctor RETAMAL / AFP) (Photo by HECTOR RETAMAL / AFP via Getty Images)
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Jovenel Moïse held a private audience with Pope Francis in 2018 at the Vatican.
(Credit: ALBERTO PIZZOLI / AFP via Getty Images)
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A photo from 2017 with the then president of Chile, Michelle Bachelet, during a state visit to Haiti.
(Credit: HECTOR RETAMAL / AFP via Getty Images)
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Jovenel Moïse was received by Antonio Guterres, Secretary General of the United Nations, in 2017. (Credit: ANGELA WEISS / AFP via Getty Images)
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Jovenel Moise with the Vice President of FIFA;
Victor Montagliani (Left) and the president of the entity, Gianni Infantino, during a press conference in 2017, in Port-au-Prince.
(Credit: VALERIE BAERISWYL / AFP via Getty Images)
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A meeting with the then president of Colombia, Juan Manuel Santos, during a 2018 summit in Lima (Credit: CRIS BOURONCLE / AFP via Getty Images)
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Jovenel Moïse was received in Paris in 2017 by the president of that country, Emmanuel Macron.
(Credit: LUDOVIC MARIN / AFP via Getty Images)
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Jovenel Moïse with Justin Trudeau, Prime Minister of Canada, during a meeting in 2017. (Credit: IAN LANGSDON / AFP via Getty Images)
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Jovenel Moise with the first lady, Marie Martine Moïse, during the wake of former Haitian president Rene Preval in December 2017. (Credit: HECTOR RETAMAL / AFP via Getty Images)
Moïse was also criticized for not having left power on February 7, when - technically - his constitutional mandate expired five years after his electoral victory in 2016. The president then argued that, given that he had been sworn in in office in 2017, it was up to him to continue until 2022 instead of 2021. This position has been supported by the UN, the OAS and the Biden administration in Washington.
At the same time, Moïse, who appointed the authorities of the Provisional Electoral Council, postponed the organization of local and legislative elections, leaving a parliament vacant after its mandate ceased in 2020. Consequently, he was ruling by decree.
And precisely due to the lack of Parliament, it has not been possible to appoint a permanent prime minister after the resignation of Joseph Jouthe, who in turn had replaced Jean-Michel Lapin after he resigned in 2019 amid strong protests over allegations of corruption due to the Petrocaribe case.
Jovenel moise