Ignacio Zuleta
08/08/2021 19:31
Clarín.com
Politics
Updated 08/08/2021 19:31
The opposition, in emergency for competing with someone else's script
The PASO were not designed to compete.
The objective of its creation was the opposite, that there was no competition.
It is a system of validation of candidacies that sought to prevent mischief in Peronism, such as participating in an internal one, losing it, and then competing outside in the general.
The mandatory primary punishes the loser with disqualification
.
Advancing the elections, in addition, with that simulation that are the PASO, allows the oligarchy of the party to identify friends and enemies.
The consequence has been that the leaders,
masters of survival
, huddle together in single lists, or that they sign up directly with alternative parties for the general ones.
This system - created for something else - is the tool that the opposition uses today to decide leaderships between the PRO tribes, the Civic Coalition and the UCR. For the first time, the PASO will be a true competition in districts that elect significant numbers of national deputies such as the provinces of Buenos Aires, Córdoba and Santa Fe.
From this inadequacy between what the system seeks and the opposition coalition's need to resolve at the ballot box what it cannot solve with negotiations,
puts the very existence of Together
(x el Cambio)
in emergency
.
Officialism: Massa awaits you in the bajadita
In PBA, the calculation of the baquianos, beyond the surveys, is that
the FdT can reach 35 points in the general with a single list
.
JxC can be in the 30 points with two lists,
Santilli vs.
Manes
.
The difference writes in advance the headline of Monday's newspapers: Tolosa 35% -Santilli + Manes 30%.
Peronism won
.
This scenario is the one that the opposition seeks to reverse by emphasizing the number of net seats won, and comparing it with previous elections.
A dispute of narratives
, whose public - the voters - is more astute than the opinion makers.
No one expects the result to modify the balance of forces for the November generals, which will also repeat the trends of all elections.
But the photo of September 12 does change the life of the leadership.
The dimension of a triumph or a defeat corrects the direction of Albertism expressed by
Tolosa Paz
, and of Christianity expressed by
Máximo
.
The third element of the trifecta,
Massa
, is in a state of dormancy.
He hibernates and puts what is left for him on the lists.
The head of Deputies presumes that in the coming time
he will find him more whole than his partners
:
Alberto
with two years of duck in a wheelchair (lame was already an issue) and
Cristina
with a Senate further away from 2/3 and bordering difficulties even to gather a quorum without external forces.
Doing what they had to do
Hypotheses remain as to whether this scenario could be avoided.
In politics necessity rules over will
.
The competing forces seem convinced that they have done what they should have done.
Also, that the absence of a comprehensive leadership has prevented regulating the mode of confrontation in the opposition.
The trigger was
Vidal's
refusal
to be a candidate in Buenos Aires - the district where he had an authority that no one disputed, neither the PRO nor the other partners.
Is a coalition solid whose fate depends on the will of a single person?
This plot speaks less of it as of the
limitation of Macri and Larreta
to order the ducklings, the same thing that
Randazzo
remembers
that Cristina lacked.
According to the manual, Vidal should have done what suited the interests of the whole, or in any case, that of the chiefs who took her where she arrived.
She did, and was rewarded, what she wanted
.
He put Larreta in the need to choose a candidate who represents his leadership.
And to the radicals in not accepting Santilli, affected for them by a prevalent Peronism.
Manes candidate has awakened a radical demographic that had lost prominence, and provokes a confrontation from which no one dares to give a result.
Radicales, PRO and Coalición will prepare for
a head to head with uncontrollable consequences
, again due to the lack of strong leadership in any of the Cambiemos forces, with the sole exception of
Elisa Carrió
.
The candidate is the project, the project is to win
One of the scenarios that his caciques analyze is that,
if Santilli beats Manes, radicalism can propose divorce
and prepare to go to the presidential elections in 2023 with their own lists and without a formal coalition.
Honey on flakes for Peronism, which, with a unit still patched between hateful partners, can speculate that this division assures them another victory without a ballot.
That possibility lowers the demands on finding a candidate. You can win with anyone.
The candidate is the project, and the project is to win
, not to impose this or that agenda. The PASO experiment in PBA is also a bodybuilding exercise for Peronism. Christianity gave up everything they demanded of it so that there would be no internal competition. The detachment -by necessity- of Cristina by yielding the head of the list and agreeing to the claims of the mayors,
liquefied the chance that there would be a confrontation
with the critics of the leadership of Maxi Kirchner and, consequently, the division proposal.
The thin thicket of what Randazzo's candidacy means today is the proof.
Not that they were left neither Joaquín de la Torre nor Jesús Cariglino
.
With this forced unity, Peronism can dedicate itself to the campaign without internal fighting scenarios, something that the opponents of Cambiemos cannot control.
Paths of enmity
In the dialogues that Larreta had during the week with Negri and Morales, he learned of the claims of the radicals.
One is that it advances the debates of 2023, which separate it from
a society that was peaceful until Vidal announced his pass
.
His intervention in districts such as Córdoba, Santa Fe, Tucumán or Buenos Aires, in the words of his interlocutors, builds a path of enmity with radicalism.
Radicals in Buenos Aires are angered by Larreta's campaign activity in this district.
Although he already explained to them that he needs to hold Santilli.
Morales, despite those points, told him that he does not think about leaving Together for Change.
The radicals believe that there is a
larretista hand in hostile closures in Tucumán and Córdoba
, and they celebrate that in PBA Vidal has resigned, without reasons beyond personal, a leadership that not even they discussed two months ago.
They were all willing to include her in a common project.
Even more so after she demonstrated in support of Maxi Abad, winner of the election to lead the party against Gustavo Posse.
It was
when Larreta said "I don't need María Eugenia in the City
.
"
Randazzo, remembering with anger
In opposition, impatience is due to the effect that the inward result will have of a force that has passed from the solid state (2015) to the liquid state (2017).
And that
if it is divided it can end up in a gaseous state
.
They fear that the PBA bid will weaken them, as happened to Peronism with the PASO between Aníbal and Julián.
In those primaries, the candidacy for governor was a confrontation that raised so many resentments among the participants, that it
dismantled the unity of the ruling party and precipitated its defeat against María Eugenia Vidal
.
It was not enough for Daniel Scioli to win in the PBA category for president.
The division effect in Argentina's largest district was the most identifiable ingredient in Macri-Michetti's triumph.
Florencio Randazzo remembers him in the campaign ad
, which has inflamed Christianity because it reveals the bottom of the problem.
It was not Randazzo's rebellion, it was the weakness of Cristina's leadership.
If this effect is repeated in a similar way in the Santilli-Manes internal, the coalition runs the risk of a division, the first since it was consolidated in April 2015, with the result of the radical Gualeguaychú convention.
At that meeting, the debate formalized a front without Massa's Peronism, which reached a vote intention of more than 30%.
In the closing speech of that summit, Ernesto Sanz finished off with a certain forecast:
"Our alliance is above 35 points: there is ballotage in Argentina!"
.
Even losing, Manes is business
Radical anger is tactical, but it does not affect a strategy that has its rationality:
this STEP allows radicals a better future than in 2015
. In that year, radicalism did not have a candidate from the metropolitan area, which has provided all the presidents since the 1994 constitutional reform - the Kirchners had to surrender to duhaldism in the sauna of the San Juan club and disguise themselves as Buenos Aires to prosper.
Now, with Manes or Lousteau they would have it.
Nor do they see the schism as a possible scenario.
In a reasonable calculation, they believe that the radicalism of Buenos Aires,
even losing, for example, 60 to 40 with Santilli
, will have produced such a mobilization of militancy and votes that it would make them competitive for a presidential STEP in 2023, with any candidate of the PRO.
"With that 40% in PBA and the radicalism of the interior, we are unstoppable"
, affirms one of the main strategists of radicalism.
I will not give the name so as not to generate antibodies.
Neither other people's nor their own, which are like monoclonal antibodies (ie the clones come from the same stem cell - which is learned by listening to the movileros about vaccines ...-).
Negri visits historical monument of Cambiemos
Negri
captured two tools for his internal fight with the Judge-De Loredo duo: one was the partnership with
Gustavo Santos
, who goes around the world with Macri's baptismal oil, who dreams of him as a candidate for provincial governor in 2023. For what he That is worth it, it is a call to the PRO Cordovan. Another tool is the partnership with
Ramón Mestre
, his historical adversary. In addition, Negri adds mayors from the interior -the UCR is in charge of 130 communes-.
With all this, he
will make the first great campaign act
this Wednesday in an emblematic place of Cambiemos, Marcos Juárez.
It is in that city where the alliance of the PRO and the UCR had its first electoral victory.
It happened in September 2014 and the winner was the neighbor Pedro Dellarosa.
The
"Battle of Marcos Juárez"
was an emblematic election that served to order the negotiation of alliances and showed how what was later called Cambiemos could work.
Marcos Juárez was a fundamental milestone in this assembly, he consecrated
Monzó
and his team, Marcelo Daletto, Nicolás Massot, Sebastián de Luca and someone else.
Today that lot has been incorporated in Buenos Aires to the radical list of Manes
.
This is retirement mobility, and not the one provided by ANSES.
In that election, in addition,
Oscar Aguad
won
a ministry in Macri's Cabinet in 2015. He was alone in supporting the head of the PRO, and when Marcos Juárez won he was
with Macri in an act, without other national leaders of the UCR
.
Dellarosa reelected in 2018 with 53% of the vote and today supports Negri in his senatorial race.
That is why that city is going to be incense.
From the Olympics to the spots
From this Sunday another entertainment is added, which replaces the Tokyo Olympics, which is the broadcast of the spots by audiovisual media.
Creole fraud attributes
decisive effects on the vote that, in the end, are never verified
.
There are TV and radio commercials that often win advertising awards, but they are unlikely to change the fate of either the company or the candidates.
Yes, surely, to creatives and producers.
There are few exceptions, such
as the award-winning "Courageous Hearts"
by Litto Nebbia, which was written and sung for Carlos Menem's campaign in 1989. The space is paid for by the State and creates the illusion that elections are a starting line that equalizes everyone's chances.
This innocent fool encourages wills, but politics, like all public and market activity, is decided between those who have strength, power, homicidal instinct and identification with the public.
The grid of results shows the same political families as always
.
The illusion of the loner who strikes at the end is for the 400 meters at the Olympics.
Regenerationist students
This weekend, the anti-establishment student was enthusiastic about the release of
Javier Milei
and aroused some concern in the great political families.
Peronism does not have much to offer in return
, because it is the backbone of the Creole establishment, identified with conservatism.
Neither does the opposition
, although the friendship of some of its partners with economic orthodoxy, identifies it with the liberalism that proposes to dynamite the political and economic system to begin, biblically, all over again.
The demon of regenerationism inspires both the left and the right.
The Argentine fantasy of social collapse helps this regenerationism: the ghost that the hordes will storm the winter palace and make the revolution, which is
typical of countries with scarce resources.
In Argentina of abundant resources, the popular demonstrations are from the ruling party, as was the march of the organizations through San Cayetano.
It was
a claim by one sector of the government against another sector of the government
.
In this country the new man's revolution is a transfer of budget items.
That is enough.
The Council makes its debut in the case of a questioned judge
Also to entertain the staff, on Thursday the foliage can begin to shake in the Electoral Justice. The Council of the Magistracy will analyze, in the Disciplinary Commission, the defense that the electoral judge of Mendoza,
Walter Bento
,
sent a few days ago
to the
accusations for alleged crimes that motivated his prosecution
. In the defense, he asks that evidence be provided against the accusations of the prosecutor who investigated him.
This commission is chaired by the Peronist senator for the Chaco,
María Inés Pilatti Vergara
, and the instructor is the deputy for the Buenos Aires PRO
Pablo Tonelli
.
The debate on the tests is prior to the decision to suspend it or not.
This case is emblematic, because
Bento must monitor the elections in the fifth province with the highest number of votes
, and the one that decides senators and national deputies.
There are open questions because in the closing for the PASO the ruling party of Cambiemos registered the current governor as a candidate for alternate senator.
This presumes that
Alfredo Cornejo
will be elected senator this year, that he can be governor in 2023 and that
Rodolfo Suarez
can replace him on the bench
.
The provincial constitution prohibits a Mendoza from the governor's office to the Senate within a year of leaving office.
Suarez has been challenged by his opponents
.
Peronism, for its part, registered collecting lists that were prohibited by a decree.
Opponents also challenge the mechanism.
Bento analyzed the two cases and said that it
should only be decided when the candidacies
for the general elections
are made official
.
Until the end of the PASO is an internal matter of the parties.
When the winners are known, it will only be possible to discuss the legality of collectors, testimonials or addresses, as occurs in candidates who move from one district to another.
