Omicron forecast: 435,000 cases a day possible soon?

But there is a second calculation

Created: 01/06/2022Updated: 01/06/2022, 9:09 PM

From: Marcus Giebel

Many new infections to be expected: Omikron is said to spread faster than the previously known corona mutations.

© Thomas Banneyer / dpa

One thing is certain: Omikron will determine the first few weeks of the year.

But it is difficult to predict how rapidly the corona mutation will spread.

Munich - It's such a thing with forecasts.

Especially since various variables have to be taken into account, some of which may not even be foreseeable at the time of looking into the future.

This has already been proven several times during the pandemic.

Sometimes terrifying numbers were thrown into the room, which ultimately remained far from reality.

Then the quick way back to normalcy was foreseen for points in time that are long in the past.

And wasn't Christmas and a New Year's Eve announced around two months ago, like in times before Sars-CoV-2 and its mutations?

Omikron wave: up to 435,000 cases possible per day at the end of January?

Nevertheless, forecasts remain in trend - especially in view of the wave of Omikron towers now also piling up in front of Germany.

For example, Katharina Schüller tries to

predict the extent of the variant that has already flooded numerous neighboring countries for

The board of directors of the German Statistical Society shows both the worst and the best case.

So basically both blades of a pair of scissors.

Let's start with the bad news.

That would be an unbelievable 435,000 new cases a day at the end of January.

For comparison: the previous record is a good 75,000 and dates from the end of November.

The worst-case number is based on an R value of 1.8, and it is also true that the apparently particularly contagious Omicron variant would account for around 70 percent of all infections.

Without tightening “only” 84,000 cases per day at the end of January?

How does it look on the other side of the scissors?

With an R-value of 1.2 and an Omikron share of 50 percent among all infected people, 84,000 cases a day would have to be complained about in four weeks.

The rule is that politicians do not tighten the measures.

Schüller makes it clear: "Which scenario is realistic in the end depends very much on how carefully or carelessly we treat each other in the next few weeks." In other words, to what extent hygiene measures, but also distance rules and contact restrictions are followed.

But of course also how the vaccination campaign is developing.

Video: Virologist sees Omikron as an opportunity to end the pandemic

The number of unreported cases makes it difficult to forecast - even compared to the previous year it lags

She also points out that it is completely unclear which number of unreported cases we are currently dealing with, i.e. how many infections are not noticed at all. Since Omikron is said to have mostly mild courses, some infected people are unlikely to notice anything from the virus attack. Which is pleasing on the one hand, but also alarming because of the contact persons.

"Last year in November / December we had an estimated number of unreported cases of factor 5," recalls Schüller.

At the same time, she emphasizes how difficult it is to make a comparison - also because of the different test strategies: "PCR is only available free of charge after a positive rapid test, a 'red' contact in the Corona warning app or if symptoms occur.

Last year you could also be tested 'just like that'. ”Of course, all of this makes predictions difficult.

But it doesn't make them less popular.