Is a Russian invasion of Ukraine an "inevitable", a "certain scenario", a "matter of days" as interpreted by some of the experts or has it not yet ended badly?
Even now it is difficult to rule on this question.
It is estimated that Russia's response to the war is based on a combination of three elements: the offensive military deployment of Russian forces on Ukraine's borders, lack of progress in policy talks, and U.S. public announcements that intelligence intelligence is in its possession that "Russian invasion may occur at any moment."
Our envoy to Kiev Neta Bar reports on tensions in Ukraine
Americans seem to sincerely believe that such a scenario is likely to materialize from the immediate time frame.
From this they took last-minute steps: an urgent call for US citizens to leave Ukraine immediately and clarification that "the US government will not be able to assist in the evacuation in case of a Russian attack", a telephone conversation between Biden and Putin in which it was again clarified that Russian invasion would lead to severe sanctions And immediacy towards it, and steps to increase coordination between Western countries to support Ukraine and put pressure on Russia.
On the other hand, Russian speakers continue to deny the offensive intentions attributed to Russia.
They also accuse the West of fueling tensions and a media campaign designed to blacken Russia and justify the West's aspirations for expansion.
Russian Air Force strategic Topolev 160 bomber // Photo: Alex Baltoyokov,
How can one explain the contradiction between the US claims and Russia's denials? Another possibility is to hold on to a small but significant detail that appeared in the announcements of some of the US spokesmen, according to which, alongside the information on the serious preparations for the Russian invasion, it is not clear whether Putin has made a final decision on the matter.
If so, it can be estimated that Russia's preparations for the invasion of Ukraine are intended to threaten and put pressure on the US and Western countries to meet Russia's demands regarding halting NATO expansion to the East and relations that the US and Western countries have with former USSR countries.
For the Russian threat to be effective, it must be credible - as the US now perceives it. This is not to say that it is an idle threat! The opposite is true. The clarity of Putin's final position The focus of the American effort on Putin shows that this is also the case in the deliberations in Washington.
Civilians taking part in a military training course in Kiev, the capital of Ukraine, Photo: API
One way or another, once a credible threat has been made - the temptation to use it is great - and so, even if this was not the original intention of its perpetrator, he may find himself drawn to it in the light of high readiness, out of prestige considerations and a better understanding of the price he is likely to pay .
Another scenario for the development of the crisis is to make the current situation permanent.
In such a situation the two powers will end the current chapter without consent but also without war: Russia will end it holding improved positions and is prepared to act at short notice from the past;
The US will end it without succumbing to Putin's dictates but also without war. Europe will breathe a sigh of relief, until next time.
And what about Israel?
The balance of threats and opportunities in the scenario of war in Ukraine and the escalation of the conflict between Russia and the United States and the West are negative. Israel has good relations with all those involved in the crisis, and must strive to preserve it.
The crisis in Ukraine could adversely affect the issue of Iran.
He is already threatening to push her out of the center of the global agenda.
Israel must make sure that the Iranians do not take advantage of the turmoil to advance their interests, whether in the nuclear field or in other fields.
At the same time, Israel will need to remain vigilant to ensure that developments in Europe are not used to justify further compromises with Iran.
The author served as National Security Adviser and Chief of Staff for National Security in 2021-2017. Currently serves as a Senior Research Fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
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