Survey quake before Saarland election: CDU in free fall - SPD with more and more lead
Created: 03/26/2022, 19:37
By: Tim Althoff
For Tobias Hans, things are looking worse and worse in the polls for the state elections in Saarland.
© Imago
The polls and forecasts for the state elections in Saarland in 2022 speak more and more for the SPD - the CDU, on the other hand, continues to fall.
The overview of the developments.
Saarbrücken ‒ The first major election of the year is coming up, Saarland is the first federal state to follow up on the 2021 federal election.
The state elections in Saarland in 2022 (all information in the news ticker) could be drastic, because current surveys and forecasts predict a change of government.
The Saarland has been ruled by the CDU for 23 years, currently Prime Minister Tobias Hans is at the helm, who replaced Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer due to her move to federal politics in 2018.
The last time the SPD was the strongest force in Saarland was in 1994. Nevertheless, it determines political events as part of the grand coalition that has governed there since 2012.
Other parties outside of the SPD and CDU have traditionally had a very difficult time in Saarland.
The third strongest party in the last three elections was the left, which has collected well over ten percent of the vote since 2009.
The Greens and the FDP did not even manage to jump over the five percent hurdle.
According to the polls, it could be difficult again this year.
Surveys and forecasts for the state elections in Saarland 2022: The 2017 election results
Political party | election result | seats |
|---|---|---|
CDU | 40.7 percent | 24 |
SPD | 29.6 percent | 17 |
The left | 12.8 percent | 5 |
AfD | 6.2 percent | 2 |
Green | 4.0 percent | - |
FDP | 3.3 percent | - |
Since the elections in Schleswig-Holstein, North Rhine-Westphalia and Lower Saxony are also due this year, the Saarland election is considered to be of great importance for the political year 2022.
Some see it as an indication of the direction in which individual parties could go.
Using the example of the last federal election, you can clearly see from the current polls how the results can affect the next elections.
Before the 2021 federal election, for example, the CDU was well ahead of the SPD in the polls for the state election in Saarland.
After the federal political gossip, opinions turned.
The winner of the election, the SPD, suddenly overtook the CDU in the Saarland polls as well. In the figures from March 24, the Social Democrats are ahead with 41 percent and have a cushion of a full 13 percentage points over their largest opponents.
The Greens and Die Linke had also hoped for better results from the federal elections.
While both parties were still around 15 percent in the polls in May last year, they fell below the ten percent mark at the end of November.
On March 27, both will have to fight to get into the state parliament at all.
The AfD and FDP are in the latest polls at five and 6.5 percent.
Here, too, there will be a close race for entry into the state parliament.
State elections in Saarland 2022: The last polls at a glance
It remains to be seen how voters will decide on their ballots.
In addition, some voters only decide on a party or a leading candidate just before the election and only start thinking about the election shortly beforehand.
More and more voters are also using the Federal Agency for Civic Education's Wahl-O-Mat to make it easier for them to make decisions.
(ta)
