The course of things has been the same for twenty years.
Presidential candidates are engaged in a fierce battle, one of them accedes to the supreme office and, four weeks later, the French confirm their choice by providing the Head of State with a majority of deputies .
The tenant of the Élysée is then carried by his troops and tries to take advantage of this momentum to reform the country.
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Could these legislative elections be an exception to the rule?
In 2017, Emmanuel Macron, like his predecessors, enjoyed a very large majority in the National Assembly.
Now in office for a second term, he still has major reforms in mind.
Starting with that of retirement at 65, which will require having strong troops at the Palais Bourbon.
But the context seems, this time, different.
In line with the presidential election, the legislative campaign which is ending was very special.
For fifty days, the oppositions called for taking advantage of this ballot to "
correct the situation
" against a president reelected "
by default
".
Thus casting uncertainty over future results.
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Legislative: the end of a breathless campaign for the Macron camp
When Emmanuel Macron was re-elected on April 24, he turned the page on an intense period.
The last few months have been marked by the health crisis, the return of war in Europe and a late entry into the arena.
The French are tired, and it is unlikely that there will be a "state of grace" for this start of the mandate.
The day after his victory, the head of state also knows that a new capital sequence is coming.
That of the legislative which, for the first time, will extend over an exceptionally long period, giving voters time to change their minds, and the executive to make mistakes.
The president therefore wants to delay the start as much as possible, and takes no less than three weeks to appoint his new government.
But he leaves a void there, which Jean-Luc Mélenchon will hasten to fill.
First Opposition Force
Because during this time, the unfortunate candidate activates.
After having missed the march of the second round by 400,000 votes, the leader of La France insoumise does not want to admit defeat.
And Emmanuel Macron's silence turns out to be the perfect opportunity to exist.
First by proposing to the French to
“elect” him
as prime minister.
Then by succeeding in the bet of the union of the left.
This New Popular Ecological and Social Union (Nupes) which was born on May 6, and brings together under the same banner Insoumis, ecologists, socialists and communists.
Quickly, the Nupes saturates the airwaves.
The negotiations were certainly conducted in pain, but an agreement is rare enough to become an event.
Especially since this agreement could well be a lifeline for the Socialists and Communists who hope to maintain a group in Parliament, and for the environmentalists who would return there after six years of absence.
Few people think that Jean-Luc Mélenchon can really settle in Matignon, but something seems to be happening.
And if the Nupes became the first opposition force?
The equation seems all the more plausible since Marine Le Pen, yet a finalist in the presidential election, opted for a realistic speech with almost defeatist airs, consisting in saying that it is not possible for her movement to become the majority force. .
"
The National Rally now has a role of figuration.
I believe that we succeeded in politicizing this campaign and giving it importance.
We have punctuated it, both in form and content.
We were central
”, welcomes Manon Aubry, LFI MEP.
Faced with the dynamic generated by this union, the presidential majority wonders.
Was it so wise to let the left settle into the landscape?
Could Emmanuel Macron not obtain an absolute majority, set at 289 seats?
That's what some polls suggest.
Latest: an Ifop-Fiducial study for LCI published on Friday and providing particularly tight scores, with 26.5% of voting intentions for the union of the left, against 26% for the majority.
The projections also foresee 180 to 210 seats for Nupes, and 270 to 305 for Renaissance.
“
There are chances that we will come out on top on Sunday.
It will then be necessary to try to mobilize even more in the between-two-towers, while facing the all-out fire from our competitors
», foresees already Manon Aubry.
“
We took too long
,” laments a member of the government, worried about not having seen his camp fight enough.
It was indeed necessary to wait for the last days so that the troops finally started.
In turn, the Macronist lieutenants thus succeeded each other on the sets to point out the radicality of the Mélenchonist project, discredit its economic projections and castigate its inconsistencies.
A “reasonable” right
A spectacle carefully observed by Les Républicains, who favored a certain media discretion.
It must be said that with the 4.78% of their candidate, Valérie Pécresse, the party executives quickly understood that they could not count on any national momentum.
Instead, they bet on a local campaign, supposed to show how rooted LR is, the antithesis of a majority made up of
“technos”
and “
parachuted
".
More recently, they also saw in the Nupes a possible asset in their survival operation.
Because if he had to settle for a relative majority, the presidential camp would be forced to seek support… on his right.
He would then find there neither allies nor partners, but a group of deputies ready to prove that there is a “
reasonable
” right, capable of constituting an alternative.
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Legislative 2022: the hunt for "felons", an arduous and symbolic bet for LR
Multiple ambitions, which on the eve of the election are only plans on the comet.
Because these legislative elections remain suspended on the unknown factor of abstention, which promises to be record, and could well create surprises as it regularly penalizes LFI and the National Rally.
On the ground, the candidates also make the same observation.
After a trying year, often sluggish campaigns and palpable weariness, it is more difficult than ever to “feel things”.
Who knows if the National Assembly will really change its face?
First elements of response Sunday at the polls.
