While in an election characterized as a multi-party system, the main importance is given to the number of voters in each party, in an inter-bloc election the main influence is in voter transitions between blocs, while the influence of voter transitions within the bloc is negligible.
The last election was decided in favor of the left-liberal bloc, mainly due to the transfer of mandates by a right-wing party, whose voters traditionally belong to the right-wing bloc and whose votes were transferred to the left-wing bloc.
The current political reality suggests that this time also on the right, the most realistic option is the movement of voters from religious Zionism to the left bloc, of all the options for inter-bloc mobility on the table.
I am not referring to the current in religious Zionism that is valued by the mandate and that votes over the years for the left bloc, but to the liberal current of the religious right that defines itself as ideologically right, and whose votes may bring the center-left bloc victory in the upcoming elections.
In a series of in-depth surveys, we found that close to 50% of those who have the right to vote who belong to religious Zionism feel that among the parties that identify with religious Zionism and compete there is no party that represents them, and about 43% answered that they would be happy to see a new religious satellite party established, politically positioned between Likud and Zionism The religious of Smotrich.
In the interviews we conducted with religious Zionist voters, many also expressed that after the breakup of the right they feel "political orphans", and do not know who they will vote for.
However, attempts to establish a "soft right" framework have not succeeded so far.
Surveys I have conducted in recent weeks indicate that less than 20% of religious voters are considering voting for such a party - a turnout that does not guarantee the success of the blocking percentage.
In this situation, it is possible that such a framework will not be established, meaning that about 50% national religious people will be left without a party to identify with naturally, 5-6 mandates "on the floor".
From the data we have received it is reasonable to assume that these mandates will be divided almost equally between three existing options - voting without choice for the religious Zionist party, voting for the parties of the left bloc and not voting, i.e. a decrease in the voting rate among religious Zionist voters who define themselves as ideological right.
While the first option constitutes an intra-bloc transition, the last two constitute an inter-bloc transition of mandates that may give the victory to the left bloc.
Only the representatives of the religious-nationalist public coming to their senses in the political system by rebuilding a party that will receive the votes of a large part of the potential voters who belong to the religious-nationalist public, will prevent such a transformation.
To summarize: Religious Zionism is estimated at 13-14 mandates.
Even after all the new initiatives, 50%-45% of them, which are 6-7 mandates, testify that they do not know who to vote for.
Ben Gvir brings from religious Zionism 2%-1.5%, Brodani stands at 1%-0.5%, and Ayelet Shaked with positive momentum in recent days crosses 2%.
Dr. Ado Lieberman is a sociologist and religious Zionist researcher at the Western Galilee Academy
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