The phrase "surplus agreement" is probably the political phrase that has the greatest gap between its practical importance and ability to determine destinies and the public's interest in it.
And you can understand why.
The surplus agreement comes with a load of terms and clauses that may melt the mind of any citizen, certainly one walking to the polls for the fifth time.
Everyone wants simple surveys, surveys in two chords, or in two blocks, to be more precise.
A bottom line that will consolidate the formula and tell us, simply, which of the parties has a chance of reaching the magic number 61.
In the back corridors of the political system, naturally, the situation is different.
There the surplus agreements are not only the tip of the shoe that may overthrow and enthrone governments.
Ask Gideon Sa'ar and Naftali Bennett, whose surplus agreement between them in the last election gave the missing mandate to establish a government of change and gave the left bloc and the Balfour protesters a psychological and practical victory.
The surplus agreements are also the vane that shows the direction of the wind towards which the campaign is leaning, and provide a periscopic glimpse of the space of options for future coalitions.
A surplus agreement reflects the way the players perceive the choice between real partners and those who can be given up.
Hafela on the left
The person who may be shaken by the precedent set by the surplus agreements is Benny Gantz.
The fact that the chairman of Blue and White and his co-chairman of New Hope Gideon Sa'ar are disappointed with the fruits of their union is no longer a secret.
The numbers are mixed up, and the addition of the former Chief of Staff Eisenkot did not spoil the expected effect either. Neither did the new branding (how much can one boast?) and calling the party "the state camp". Sa'ar and Eisenkot gave a chance, but they are already preparing mentally, and to some extent also Operative, for plan B. In terms of Israeli politics, this is something that commentators who like to get excited will call a big bang, the first step on the way to that is the signing of a surplus agreement with Yair Lapid's Yesh Atid.
The goal is to prevent the establishment of a government headed by Netanyahu, Eisenkot explains to Gantz in recent days.
And according to his view, a party similar to Blue and White before the great split, the one that reached 35 seats, will ensure a high number of seats for Lapid and significantly increase the chance that the bloc led by him will form the next government.
Sa'ar, for his part, is not only busy with talk but also with the actual architecture of the move, with actions and talks behind the scenes.
Among other things, as I recall, he took good care of his confidant, Knesset member Michal Shir, and arranged a place for her on the Yesh Atid list.
In Sa'ar's vision, this is actually armor that will be at his disposal in a future union with Lapid.
Gantz is attentive for the time being, but only because he has not yet realized that in Hefala, who is planning an assault with the backing of Eisenkot, he is being shown the role of the sheep.
The condition that Lapid will demand is to become the only candidate of the left-Arab bloc for prime minister, Gantz will have to put his dreams on hold for now.
It is possible that Gantz's naivety in the face of Sa'ar's active political conduct is that he too has difficulty believing the transformation that Sa'ar has undergone in less than two years.
From the right of Nitzi, working in the name of Beitarim values, while bearing the name of Jabotinsky, Sa'ar jumped with Olympic speed to the position of the architect of the left bloc and the most dedicated fighter against the right. While Sa'ar was busy trying to establish a united left body, his partner Gantz showered affection on the joint list, including Sami Abu Shahada, Ofer Kasif and Ayman Odeh. "Just not Bibi" - also at the price of a partnership with Tibi. Don't be surprised.
Avigdor Lieberman is still looking in amazement at Sa'ar's accelerated anticipatory-Levanization process.
The surplus agreement between the state camp and Lish Atid left him exposed in the tower.
Lieberman transmits distress.
He is getting closer in consistent steps to the blocking percentage and now he is starting to be left alone.
In the previous rounds, Lieberman signed a surplus agreement twice, once with the United Blue and White and once with Yesh Atid.
This time he will probably have to manage on his own.
And there are also those who let out a sigh of relief in view of the surplus agreement between Gantz and Lapid and will also be happy and enthusiastically support the connection between the parties.
The first is Meretz, who is licking the wounds of the aggressive campaign for the leadership of the party and has so far experienced nightmares in view of the option that the major parties of the bloc will hold a celebratory feast on her votes.
The establishment of a large left-wing party with a large column of mandates will obviate the need to eliminate Meretz.
From Lapid's point of view, it makes no difference whether he gets 30 mandates or 33, and sacrificing a mandate or two in favor of Meretz is a small price to pay for remaining in the government office.
The second to benefit from the big party scenario for similar reasons is the Labor Party.
Gantz turned his eyes on the voters, but he will have a hard time doing it from the position of deputy in a united party, if he even wants to bet on the deterioration of Labor to below the percentage of blocking.
The signing of the surplus agreement between Yesh Atid and the state camp,
and meanwhile on the right
Meanwhile, in the right-wing bloc, the trend is the opposite.
Not unifications but divisions, not the maximization of political power but an opening for mutual cannibalization.
The heart of the event on the right is of course the never-ending saga between Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben Gvir, and in this case too the surplus agreements will have a decisive effect.
A united run by religious Zionism and Otzma Yehudit will allow the party to sign an agreement with the Likud at the same time as a parallel signing between Torah Judaism and the Shas. And the Torah Jews will try to drink the votes of Ben Gabir, the Likud will turn the straw to Smotrich.
In Netanyahu's office, efforts to unify religious Zionism have become public, but currently, elements in the right-wing bloc are pessimistic about the possibility of a joint run.
The dispute between Otzma Yehudit and religious Zionism, regardless of who is right in the political battle, may turn out to be dramatic and end in tears when the results of the polls are announced on election night.
Most likely, a few days later, when the soldiers' votes come and the surplus agreements are calculated, we will be left with an even less successful situation.
This has already happened to the right more than once.
The surplus agreements can give a first indication of the direction in which the system is going - and they also say the last word.
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