The nuclear agreement between the US and Iran continues to drift apart:
a political official who spoke to "Israel Today" estimated this evening (Friday) that in light of the Iranian response to the American proposal, and against the background of the internal political situation in the US, an agreement between the parties will not be reached at least until the congressional elections to be held in November 8.
However, the source estimated that if an agreement is nevertheless reached, the administration will succeed in passing it in Congress with a very high probability, even if the Republicans obtain a majority in the House of Representatives and the Senate, as the polls predict.
The prediction regarding the nuclear deal being delayed by at least two months joins the disclosure by "Israel Today", according to which Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman, who is considered one of the forces pushing with all her might for an agreement with Iran, expressed pessimism in conversations with Democratic members of Congress who oppose the agreement, and hinted that it may not come to fruition at all .
Wendy Sherman, photo: Getty Images
According to the political source, the government fears that rushing to an agreement at any cost could harm the Democratic Party's chances in the congressional elections, and therefore they would prefer to postpone the move until after November 8, and even then there is no certainty that an agreement will be reached.
"If the Iranians fold on all or most of the points, the administration could advance the agreement right now, but according to the answer that Tehran gave to the American proposal, it seems that this scenario is unlikely."
The new Congress, in which a Republican majority is expected, will not be sworn in until the beginning of January, but the political official estimated that even if the negotiations continue into 2023, President Biden will veto any decision that does not approve the nuclear deal. According to the US Constitution, Congress can override the veto of the president with a two-thirds majority in both houses, but the Republicans are not expected to have such a majority, even if they include the opponents of the agreement from among the Democrats.
According to the latest reports, the two most difficult disputes between the US and Iran concern the "open files" issue and the Iranian demand for guarantees that the US will not withdraw from the agreement.
The "open files" are three investigations by the SAA regarding three undeclared facilities where traces of enriched uranium were discovered. The West suspects that the Aryans performed prohibited experiments at these sites, and Tehran is unable to provide plausible explanations for the physical findings found on the ground.
moving away from an agreement.
Raisi at the Iranian nuclear facility (archive), photo: AFP
Since this is a violation of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) which Iran has signed regardless of the nuclear agreement, it may again find itself under sanctions even after it signs the new agreement, which should lead to the lifting of the sanctions on it.
That is why Tehran insists on unconditionally closing the investigations, but the US and SABA chairman Rafael Grossi strongly oppose this, as of now.
The Iranian demand for financial or legal guarantees that the US will not withdraw from the agreement in the future comes against the background of Tehran's fear that in 2024 a Republican president will be elected - whether Trump or another candidate - who will repeat Trump's move from 2018 and leave the nuclear agreement. "B are opposed to this demand, among other things due to legal problems related to American law, which do not allow it to be implemented.
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