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Videos from areas that Ukrainian troops have recaptured, reports of success from Kyiv, reports that the Russian armed forces are retreating further: the war is currently entering a phase in which Ukraine is controlling the course of the war: Kyiv is acting, Moscow is reacting.
Claudia Major, Science and Politics Foundation:
“If Ukraine is still able to take the smaller towns near Kherson, it looks very likely that they can liberate Kherson as well. And that would be politically, militarily and also symbolically enormous progress, because it is a big city, because it was hotly contested, but because the water supply for the Crimea also depends on Cherson and – speaking on a larger scale – also access to Odessa .«
The question of negotiations does not arise for Kyiv at the moment - especially now that the Ukrainian military is succeeding in gradually pushing back the Russian occupiers.
Nor is it an option for the attacked country to cede the occupied territories to Russia.
Claudia Major, Science and Politics Foundation:
"It's also about responsibility towards one's own population, who are exposed to war crimes, torture and the like under Russian occupation. And we must keep this in mind: Ukraine does not have the choice between war and peace. It has a de facto choice between war and annihilation under Russian occupation.«
In winter, acts of war are expected to decrease significantly.
The terrain becomes more impassable, the wet and cold bother the soldiers on both sides.
While Ukraine is retaking areas that require a lot of material, Russia is clearly playing for time.
Claudia Major, Science and Politics Foundation:
»In English there is this beautiful term 'outsuffer', i.e. the ability to be able to suffer longer. And Russia seems to be hoping that they will have more staying power in this conflict and that the western states will eventually get tired of this conflict or have enough internal problems and dwindle in their financial, military and political support.«
Despite all the success stories from Kyiv, Russia still controls 20 percent of Ukrainian territory.
With the so-called "annexation" of four Ukrainian regions, which violates international law, the Kremlin is trying to lay down new political lines where its own army cannot make any headway militarily.
Claudia Major, Science and Politics Foundation:
“They'll try to probably freeze that over the winter and prepare for the new or next offensive in the spring. In fact, this gives Russia the time to rebuild the troops, fill them up with the new recruits, possibly also replenish equipment, in order to then go into the next offensive in the spring with a better formation.”
However, Putin's mobilization is not going according to plan: people in Russia are resisting the conscription, and hundreds of thousands have already left the country to avoid it.
The training of reservists has only recently started.
There are reports of a lack of instructors and proper equipment.
Even if the mobilization will only take effect in a few weeks, it is a clear signal from Putin to Ukraine and the West.
Claudia Major, Science and Politics Foundation:
“It's not an offer to negotiate, it's an increase in military capabilities. You have to say that very clearly. The hope that Russia would somehow be willing to give in to this war or reduce troops has not come true, but the signal is a long-term promise of conflict and continued focus on the military and not on any other solutions."
Despite the current Ukrainian successes on the battlefield, a quick end to the war is not in sight.
In the best-case scenario, Ukraine could force Russia to the negotiating table.
But even then there is still the question of freedom and the future of Ukraine as an independent state.
Claudia Major, Science and Politics Foundation:
»How can Ukraine survive in the future? How free can she be within her own limits? What borders will Ukraine have? That's why it's so important to liberate as much as possible of the Russian-occupied territory now, because ultimately it's about what borders Ukraine will exist in the future and what security guarantees it will have. Who will ensure in the future that Ukraine will not be attacked again and that Russia will not try to erase it from the map again? That's the question of security support."
The course of the war this winter is significant not only for Russia and Ukraine themselves.
Other countries will debate how the West can and should support Ukraine politically, militarily and financially - especially if the energy crisis worsens in winter and prices continue to rise as a result of the ongoing war.
