In his first shift as prime minister, in the 1990s, Benjamin Netanyahu was a security adventurer.
He opened the Wall tunnel and approved the failed operation to kill Khaled Mashal in Jordan.
The sting of these events remained in him when he reached his second round as prime minister, which lasted 12 years and will now be renewed.
In this period, the second, Netanyahu was moderate and very balanced in the issues of using force.
More than once the security systems had to try and convince him many times until he gave his approval for the operations.
This is not to Netanyahu's condemnation, but to his credit: understanding the limitations of power is a virtue of a leader, and above all the knowledge that it must be used not as a first resort but as a last resort - after all other options have been exhausted.
Netanyahu on the apparent victory: "We will work to merge the rifts" Credit: Likud's pool mobile for all platforms for Central Productions
Netanyahu will come to his next term from somewhere else.
Not only because of his legal issues, but precisely because his coalition will be different.
In his previous governments, the Likud was in the middle, and Netanyahu had to maneuver between the various components of the coalition.
On the right were Bennett and Lieberman (before the center), and on the left - Barak, Kahlon and others.
Now the Likud, with Netanyahu at its head, finds itself in a new position for it: when it is the most left-wing party in the coalition.
This burdens Netanyahu with excess responsibility in every subject and matter, especially in matters of security and policy.
There will be quite a few people sitting next to him who are convinced that there is now a one-time opportunity to make a new order - to annex the territories, for example, to dramatically increase the Jewish settlement east of the Green Line, to change the status quo in Jerusalem, and more.
What all of these have in common is an unusual potential for explosions - from an increase in the wave of terrorism, through a broad uprising in the West Bank, to a multi-scene escalation. All of these may also be accompanied by diplomatic moves, from a renewed crisis in relations with Jordan and Egypt, through damage to relations with the countries of the "Abraham Accords" ", and up to conflicts of various descriptions and degrees of severity with the USA and the Western countries (which may also be accompanied by attempts to impose various types of boycotts and restrictions on Israel).
Netanyahu is a great man of the world.
He likes to sleep at the Blair House in Washington and the luxury hotels of London, Paris and Berlin.
It is doubtful whether he feels like reaching them for the sake of reprimands and confrontations.
To avoid this, he will be required to conduct a moderate, sensible policy, which will know how to carve tunnels into the hearts of world leaders even in a more complex reality than before.
If this is avoided, Israel may turn into a dangerous marginal reality that will set the whole world against it.
This will also affect the economy (sanctions, limiting sales of Israeli companies or brain drain and hi-tech companies abroad), the equality of the burden, the already fragile relations with American Jewry, and more.
It is tempting to blame all these dangers on Itamar Ben Gvir.
The man's acquaintances are divided between those who claim that he will change and be moderate and reasonable, and those who are sure that everything that happened in the last months was a show and now the old, familiar and extreme Itamar will reappear.
It doesn't really matter which of them is right: Ben Gabir is not the owner of the house, nor will he be.
The owner of the house is Netanyahu.
For better or for worse, it's all about him.
The successes will be his, but so will the failures.
As someone who has a high historical and self-awareness, he understands very well that his main challenge will not be outside the government, but from within it.
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