50 years and a day after the Yom Kippur War, Israel suffered the surprise of October 7. As then, Israel must come to its senses quickly, and it will not be able to end the campaign forced on it without a clear and unequivocal decision.
From the air and on the ground: Hamas publishes documentation of training for surprise attack on Israel
Hamas planned this attack meticulously. For many months, perhaps years, he created the false impression that he was deterred, and refrained from commenting on the IDF's operations against Islamic Jihad and events in Judea and Samaria and Jerusalem. Israel became addicted to this quiet, and was captivated by the concept that Hamas would refrain from entering the battlefield.
At this time, the organization planned its Simchat Torah offensive. A planned, combined offensive with ground, air, naval and underground elements. Terrorists who crossed the fence simultaneously in a variety of ways, knowing exactly where to go – cities, kibbutzim, moshavim and IDF bases, who found themselves in the strongholds of '73, with cries of devastation coming from all sides, live.
Hamas, of course, knew that it was a holiday, meaning that the IDF was on relatively low alert and that a large part of the forces were at home, while the atmosphere in the communities was also sleepy.
Such an operation requires advance preparation, with hundreds of secret partners. All this slipped under the eye of Israeli intelligence, which knew nothing.
Day of fighting near the Gaza Strip – exchanges of fire, roadblocks and falls // Photo: Shmuel Buchris
In this respect, this is perhaps even worse than the failure of '73: Israel today is many times stronger in intelligence and operations – certainly against a weakened and limited enemy such as Hamas – and should not suffer such a double surprise, tactically and strategically, which was probably accompanied by Hamas' extensive preparations in defense, for the possibility, which will now certainly materialize, that the IDF will maneuver on the ground into Gaza as part of the war that will develop.
At the time of writing, the extent of the events is still unknown. When the fog clears, Israel will face harsh sights and data. A very large number of dead and wounded, and quite a number of abductees – soldiers and civilians, including women and children. This requires Israel to immediately change its mindset and switch to a similar mode of conduct.
Gaza can no longer be immune to any kind of activity or reaction, and this campaign must end with Hamas defeated and its leaders dead or captive. If this does not happen, Israel will become a punching bag and pay a very intolerable price for releasing its hostages.
From the air and on the ground: Hamas publishes footage of the surprise attack on Israel
But Gaza is only part of Israel's concern now. This morning's campaign comes against the backdrop of a de facto war that has been waged in recent weeks in Judea and Samaria, with most of the regular army confined to the territories. The IDF is now required to quickly recruit tens of thousands of reservists and deploy them to the territories, in order to release the regular units to fight in Gaza and to be on high alert for the possibility that a campaign will develop in the north as well.
Naturally, the northern arena will now be the focus of Israeli concern. In recent months, there has been an alarming operational rapprochement between the terrorist organizations, synchronized from Beirut under the joint leadership of Iran and Hezbollah.
Hamas maintains active forces in Lebanon organized under senior Hamas figure Salah Arouri, and it is likely that they will try to fire rockets and possibly infiltrate Israeli territory.
Damage to the house, photo: AFP
The question is how Israel will respond to such a move, and especially how Hezbollah will act if Israel harms Lebanon. Hassan Nasrallah has warned more than once in the past that his organization would respond to such a move, which could plunge the region into a particularly widespread and bloody war. Therefore, Israel must now use all the levers it has – political and security – to deter Hezbollah and dissuade it from acting.
Another concern will be the Arab public in Israel, especially in mixed cities. The events of Guardian of the Walls are still seared into the flesh, and the internal situation in Israel has only inflamed spirits ever since.
The police and the heads of the communities (both Jews and Arabs) now have an extraordinary command and leadership challenge to try to keep the quiet as much as possible. This will be a particularly difficult task given the feeling that Israel is more brittle than in the past, and when Gaza (and perhaps Lebanon as well) will face an attack that will surely claim many casualties, and when Hamas has succeeded in once again branding the campaign under the false headline that the Al-Aqsa Mosque is in danger.
Infiltration of terrorists in Sderot, photo: use according to 27A of the Copyright Law
In the background of all this is Iran, which is tirelessly trying to challenge Israel. This Iranian effort has received a boost in recent weeks, in an attempt to torpedo the advanced contacts for normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia. Israel will now seek to mobilize the moderate Arab states, led by Egypt, to its right, a difficult task given the scope of the fighting and the casualties currently expected to develop on the ground.
This war is likely to be difficult, to say the least. In recent years, Israel has become a satiated society that is less willing to pay prices, light years away from the small country surrounded by enemies that defended itself here 50 years ago for its very existence.
This illusion of power was shattered this morning, and Israel must restore it quickly. This is a leadership and command challenge of the highest order, at a time when Israeli society and the public are torn from within. All these must now be set aside and focused on the supreme task – victory and restoration of quiet. After that, the moment will come for drawing lessons and conclusions, and there will be quite a few of them.
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