In recent weeks, the issue of normalization with Saudi Arabia has become even more pronounced.
The current crown prince, who has not yet turned 40, clearly breaks with the traditional line of his predecessors and is ready to embark on surprising normalization with Israel – contrary to what everyone thought until now, without it being clear how the Palestinian issue will be resolved, especially when the current government includes extreme right-wing elements such as Smotrich and Ben-Gvir.
This is an opportunity to point out an important and unspoken point: Why is bin Salman willing to break with the traditional line and normalize relations with Israel? Is there any extraordinary diplomatic genius of Prime Minister Netanyahu here? Doubt. It seemed to fall into his hands as a ripe fruit, and not something he planned and knew how he would bring.
What caused bin Salman to go in this direction is precisely what Netanyahu presents to this day as his greatest achievement regarding the nuclear agreement with Iran.
In May 2018, President Trump withdrew from Obama's nuclear agreement, which led to the Iranians beginning to violate it. Today, the Saudis understand very well that they have no guarantee against the Iranian bomb, because Trump's withdrawal from the nuclear agreement – with Netanyahu's encouragement – has caused the chances of achieving it to rise dramatically, and that there is no one to stop it. It is true that from time to time all kinds of boastful remarks come up in the Israeli political echelon, as if "we are masters of our fate" and if necessary we will attack Iran and the nuclear program will be destroyed – but everyone knows, both the Saudis and the Iranians, that this is not feasible without American backing, and if not, even with real military backing in the form of an attack carried out by them.
But the Americans, for their part, have long since exhausted their desire to deplete military resources in the chaotic and bloody Middle East. In the early 2000s, they embarked on two such adventures, in Afghanistan and Iraq, which led to their utter disgust with any possible military involvement in the region. No American president, no matter what party, would receive public credit for such an adventure.
Why is bin Salman willing to break with the traditional line and normalize relations with Israel? Is there any extraordinary diplomatic genius of Prime Minister Netanyahu here? Doubt. This seemed to fall into his hands as a ripe fruit, and not something he planned and knew how to bring
In this regard, Trump differs from his Republican predecessor, Bush, in a way that most of the Israeli public does not understand. Bush believed in spreading American hegemony throughout the world, and was delusional when he thought he could spread the message of democracy to Arab countries. Trump, on the other hand, is radically different from him. When he says "America First," he's talking about isolationism and the convergence of the U.S. back into its internal affairs, and damn the rest of the world. And those who believe in and advocate separatism certainly cannot go to distant wars.
Ironically, then, it was found that Iran's rapprochement with the bomb, of which Netanyahu is a major factor, initially led to the rapprochement of the Gulf states, which seek security guarantees in the face of the Iranian threat, and now also of the Saudi regime, which seeks defense and insists on both a civilian nuclear program and a defense pact, which requires the approval of two-thirds of the US Senate.
Funnily enough, Netanyahu reversed the Obama-era formula of "Yitzhar for Bushehr." If at the beginning of Obama's days there was talk of handing over Yitzhar and the settlements in order to get full American backing against the Iranian nuclear program, now Netanyahu has paved the way for the Iranians to go nuclear, in return for accepting and preserving Yitzhar and the other settlements.
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