"Morning after morning after morning, after a cornet flew over my head at night, I tried to think: What does Israel want to happen on the northern border?" wrote one of the commanders in the northern sector, who has been waiting tensely for a fifth week for orders to arrive. Meanwhile, it feels like ducks at a shooting range. Nasrallah fans the flames day after day, dozens of anti-tank missiles over the weekend alone, Burqan fire with a large warhead, and shooting at civilians and killing them. Not "just" soldiers.
Defense Minister Galant on the northern border: "Hezbollah is close to making a serious mistake" // Photo: Elad Malka
The ministers, the prime minister and the military establishment, for their part, make do with warnings to Nasrallah and measured fire at the sources of fire. On Friday, soldiers were seriously wounded by the gunfire, yesterday a civilian was seriously wounded, followed by more civilians and soldiers "lightly", only amputations, nothing terrible.
All the northern settlements near the fence were emptied of their inhabitants. In their place, makeshift bases were set up for thousands of fighters in Russian roulette. Hezbollah will decide who lives and who dies. And Nasrallah? He is already in a war that Israel has been trying to prevent since October 7.
The fear and alertness surrounding Nasrallah's speech and the subsequent sigh of relief from the Israeli leadership show that we have learned nothing from the terrible massacre. The enemy is again dictating the pace, the defense minister in response talks about deterrence, and Netanyahu warns again about Lebanon's future. As before the massacre, when the defense establishment arrogantly explained how Hamas was deterred and not interested in confrontation but in money, and the political leadership happily bought into the forecast. Like then – today. We close our eyes to continuous fire on communities, people and soldiers and hope that Nasrallah will be satisfied with the damage he has caused so far.
Nasrallah fans the flames day after day, Photo: Reuters
To the reporters' questions, the political echelon explains that it is better for Israel not to be at war on two fronts, that the forces that will be stretched throughout the country will harm the necessary achievements against Hamas, which can suffice with defensiveness. It is unpleasant to admit, but there is indeed deterrence. Israel is deterred by its enemies. It was deterred in the south vis-à-vis Hamas and is now deterred vis-à-vis Hezbollah. The dream of choosing a convenient time for war in the northern sector vanishes as the rocket fire from Lebanon expands day by day, but Netanyahu and Herzi are not waking up.
So far, what the IDF and the political echelon call "Hezbollah's lack of achievements" stems from the correct tactical conduct of the fighters on the ground, not because Hezbollah does not want to kill them as much as possible. Israel is on the defensive, we are told time and time again, that military attention is required for a split that will harm achievements in the south. But the naked truth is that the army has been preparing for a multi-front campaign over the past ten months and even earlier, and that day has come. If Israel doesn't have the capabilities to defend its borders now, we can start packing.
After all, the residents of the north will not return to their homes as long as the threat exists in the form of thousands of fighters and hundreds of thousands of missiles designed not to "deter," but to murder Israeli citizens from youth to old people. Israel's defense in the Gaza Strip led to the accumulation of Hamas' capabilities until the horrific operation. Israel's defense on the northern border over the past month allows Hezbollah to choose the timing of which it will strike Israel hard. "They won't be able to occupy settlements," state officials say, because the army is on the borders, but they can certainly kill dozens, at least, on a day of orders.
IDF soldiers on the northern border, photo: Getty Images
Without learning the obvious lesson from the events of Black Saturday, once again Military Intelligence, the IDF, the Mossad, the Shin Bet and the government allow Nasrallah to decide when and how he will begin. Instead of eliminating the threat of a surprise Israeli strike that would exact a heavy price from Hezbollah and perhaps finally deter Nasrallah. Not in words, in deeds.
Meanwhile, residents of the north feel from the hotels in Tel Aviv, Netanya and Herzliya that their blood has been permitted. Like that of the residents of the envelope over many, many years. That their exile for five weeks did not produce the only thing they hoped for: the restoration of security.
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