At a time when an all-out war is being waged to topple the Hamas regime in the Gaza Strip, many in Israel – in the political system, security forces and academia – are discussing the issue of "the day after."
In a broader context, the question arises of what the future of the conflict with the Palestinians will be, and whether there is any chance of an Israeli-Palestinian peace agreement in the foreseeable future.
When one hears the discussions, it becomes clear that there are many differences of opinion on the Palestinian side on the issue. On the one hand, there is an argument that the barbaric massacre carried out by Hamas on 7 October is an opportunity to restore the Palestinian Authority under Mahmoud Abbas, and even revive the political process with it.
On the other hand, many claim that Hamas' terrorist campaign and the fact that Mahmoud Abbas has so far not condemned the murder of 1,400 Israelis and the abduction of 240 to the Gaza Strip are proof that there is no partner on the Palestinian side for peace with Israel.
One of the tools to understand what the Palestinians think and how they see the future of the conflict with Israel is opinion polls. While there are several research institutes that conduct surveys of Palestinian society, the Palestinian Center for Survey Policy and Research (PCPSR), led by Prof. Khalil Shikaki, has been conducting surveys quarterly since 1994. The surveys include questions that have been repeated over the years, which helps to understand trends in Palestinian society from a time perspective.
Regarding the future of the Gaza Strip and the distorted attempt to separate the Hamas terrorist organization from the population, which is sometimes held hostage by Hamas – a claim heard mainly in the United States and Europe – polls clearly show that not only do Palestinians support Hamas, they also express overwhelming support for terror attacks against civilians inside Israel (it is important to note that Hamas took control of the Gaza Strip in June 2007, a fact that only reinforces the claim that the polls are reliable in that the residents were not afraid to express their opinions).
While until Operation Pillar of Defense in 2012 the trend was that Fatah was winning in the Gaza Strip, it is clear that since then a trend that peaked in 2020 began, according to which Hamas is the most popular organization in the Gaza Strip.
The latest poll, conducted just before the massacre, at the end of September 2023, shows that at the time of the elections, Hamas will win 44% of the votes, while Fatah will receive 32% (the other parties win by only a few percent, with 16% answering not knowing/not voting).
Another statistic that further illustrates the collective support of Palestinian society in the Gaza Strip for Hamas terrorism lies in the answer to the question "Do you support an armed attack against civilians inside Israel?" The results leave no room for doubt: the rate of support for terrorism stood at 67%.
A clear upward trend can be observed. Palestinians in the Gaza Strip since 2001 – the period of the second intifada – have made it clear that a large majority of them support attacks against civilians inside Israel
A clear upward trend can be observed. Palestinians in the Gaza Strip since 2001 – the period of the second intifada – have made it clear that a large majority of them support attacks against civilians inside Israel. The September 2023 survey corresponds to the events of October.
In conclusion, with regard to claims that Hamas must be separated from the civilian population on the political level, it is important to know the data because a large majority of Palestinians in the Gaza Strip support Hamas and terrorism against civilians.
This information is important not only to learn and internalize, but mainly to disseminate, so that the world will understand that the State of Israel is in a struggle not only against a murderous terrorist organization but also against a terror-supporting population that desires the destruction of the State of Israel.
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