Yesterday's briefing by the Chief of Staff to the media presented to the public in matter-of-fact language the developing trends in all the combat arenas. In his manner of speaking, he instilled confidence that the war was moving in the desired direction. Further to his remarks, it is worthwhile to explain to the public the special complexity of this war, which, in several essential dimensions, is many times more complex than the war in October 1973.
Galant: "Hamas understands that there is no one to come to their aid, neither Iran nor Hezbollah" // Photo: GPO
The first dimension manifests itself in the lengthening duration of the war. Within three weeks, the Yom Kippur War ended with a ceasefire in both arenas. Although the fighting in the Golan Heights continued with attrition until June 1974, the outcome on the battlefields with the ceasefire at the end of October opened a bright horizon for the end of the campaign.
In the current war, even after two months, the end horizon in the Gaza Strip and on the northern border is still shrouded in fog. At the end of October 1973, the enemy armies were severely beaten, and thus the leaders of Egypt and Syria, together with the leadership of the USSR, had an interest in bringing the war to an end. The State of Israel managed to achieve a real military achievement deep in enemy soil, which enabled it to join the agreement to a ceasefire.
Kfir Brigade fighters in Gaza, photo: IDF Spokesperson
This convergence of interests was best exploited by US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger. Kissinger's challenge was in this respect quite simple compared to the much more complex conditions of the war today. In contrast to Russia's assessment of the situation at the end of October 1973, which understood its interest in ending the war, these days Iran, as the main patron and leader of the proxy system in the fighting around Israel, does not seem at all interested in bringing the war to an end. At this stage, it is difficult to assess how Iran will conduct itself in making decisions for the future, when the IDF's victory trend in the Gaza Strip becomes clearer.
Embarrassment vis-à-vis the U.S.
In the war objectives set for the IDF before and during the Yom Kippur War, there was no expectation of dismantling the regime in Syria or Egypt. In today's war, the IDF was tasked not only with conquering space and destroying an enemy, but also with achieving the dismantling of a governmental system – with the aim of establishing a new order. This goal in itself makes planning the day after a complicated problem.
While there is clarity regarding the military achievement required to complete the mission in the Gaza Strip, the way to settle the day after inherently involves strategic embarrassment vis-à-vis the US administration. This requires transferring the Gaza Strip to PA control, and the State of Israel must clarify all its concerns. How, for example, will the Palestinian Authority – which has repeatedly revealed its impotence in preventing a terrorist network in a prosperous city like Jenin – succeed in such a complex task of rebuilding the Gaza Strip and turning it into a demilitarized zone without new threats against the State of Israel?
In parallel to all the difficulties in rehabilitating the population in an area severely destroyed in the fighting, it must be remembered that the PA's entry into managing the area comes accompanied by a package of demands that the State of Israel finds it difficult – justifiably – to agree, such as promoting the safe passage between Gaza and Mount Hebron on Israeli soil, and a demand to renew negotiations for a Palestinian state within the '67 borders. It is worth mentioning that even after the elimination of Hamas' control of the Gaza Strip, the region will continue to be affected by all the developing regional trends led by Iran. Therefore, in this complex system, it is entirely understandable why thinking about a responsible address for managing the day after is so far from clear and consensus.
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