In every war, the concept of a "victory picture" arises. During World War II, it was the raising of the (staged) American flag on Iwo Jima, or the Soviet flag over the Reichstag building. In the Arab-Israeli wars, we remember the picture of paratroopers at the Western Wall in the Six-Day War, or the crossing of IDF forces across the Suez Canal to Africa in the Yom Kippur War. But this is not a modern invention. Even in antiquity, rulers, kings and warlords immortalized themselves in murals, engravings and monuments.
Eight weeks into the Iron Sword War, we are already beginning to hear voices trying to define what the "victory picture" of the war will be. But before defining a "victory picture," one must ask: How do you define victory?
In fact, there is no definitive answer. Why? Because there is a military victory and there is a political victory - two concepts that differ from each other, and also from the term "victory picture", which concerns aspects of consciousness. And if we look to complicate the discussion further, then there is also the concept of "decision", which also differs from the others.
The IDF won three wars: Independence (1948), Sinai (1956) and Six Days (1967), by breaking the enemy's strength. Israel, on the other hand, achieved a military victory in the Yom Kippur War and the First Lebanon War, in which the IDF overcame the enemy and achieved its military objectives. This includes all the different rounds vis-à-vis Hamas in Gaza since the withdrawal in 2005.
And what will happen now? What is Israel striving for? What would it consider a "decisive victory" – a military victory, or a "victory picture" in an iron sword war? On the other hand, what would be considered a Hamas victory in the campaign?
According to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Galant, the goals of the war are three: the elimination of Hamas in Gaza, the return of the hostages, and the prevention of a threat to the communities near the Gaza Strip, similar to the situation before the war. There is no disputing any of the goals and the importance of achieving them, but by definition they contradict each other.
Hamas holds the abductees as a bargaining chip and human shield, and therefore poses a significant challenge on the way to eliminating its leaders in the Gaza Strip, as well as a challenge in negotiations for the release of civilians and soldiers remaining in its hands. There are also some 30,<> Hamas fighters in the Gaza Strip, and thousands more defined as "weapons holders." Their elimination is undoubtedly a more difficult challenge than that of the leadership, especially since in the event of surrender - who will take the hundreds or thousands, and where?
Finally, Hamas is split between the internal and foreign leaderships, and any activity vis-à-vis its senior officials will require considerable resources and spread across the globe. Hence, Israel will find itself in a shadow war that will last a long time. To illustrate, for seven years the Israeli Mossad operated as part of Operation Wrath of God to assassinate leaders and members of the Black September organization, which carried out the massacre of athletes at the Munich Olympics in 1972. The last liquidation, by the way, was in 1992!
According to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Galant, the goals of the war are three: the elimination of Hamas in Gaza, the return of the hostages, and the prevention of a threat to the communities near the Gaza Strip, similar to the situation before the war. There is no disputing any of the goals and the importance of achieving them, but by definition they contradict each other
The conclusion is that goal setting is one thing, and how to implement it is quite another. Therefore, Israel can certainly achieve a military victory, and even a cognitive victory (see Golani fighters with an Israeli flag in the Hamas Council building in Gaza), but defeating Hamas is a very long-term task.
And what about the other side? How can a terrorist organization win a war? Well, for Yahya Sinwar, Mohammed Deif, Ismail Haniyeh and Khaled Mashaal, survival is victory – both military and propaganda. A joint photo of the four, or even just one of them, in the famous V movement – and the goal was achieved. And it doesn't matter that Gaza is occupied, destroyed and full of refugees. Deportation on a ship or plane as part of the "all for all" deal is also a victory. In fact, in Hamas' eyes, this would be considered its decisive victory in the war against the IDF and Israel as a whole.
"History is written by the victors," Julius Caesar said. But it turns out that in the 21st century, victory is in the eye of the beholder.
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