Despite pressure from the Americans and senior defense officials (whose October 6 concept is still bread), Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has no real reason to hold a discussion about the day after in the Gaza Strip. There is no possibility that any solution will be acceptable to his political partners, Itamar Ben-Gvir, Bezalel Smotrich and several senior Likud figures, as well as to the Biden and Blinken administrations, from whose hands the State of Israel is currently eating.
If Israeli flags remain in Gaza in the coming years, President Joe Biden will be furious. On the other hand, if Israeli flags pinned by IDF soldiers are replaced by PLO flags, Netanyahu will be left without a coalition and without a foreseeable political future. So why decide now?
The army, the defense minister and most members of the war cabinet demand a discussion about the day after, but things are already clear to them. As far as they are concerned, Gaza was Arab before the war, and it will remain so. They don't really need a discussion to know how to prepare for the next stages, because as far as they are concerned, there is one preparation for one reality. The only ones who can change this are the political echelon, the prime minister and right-wing ministers.
Listening to the public's sentiments requires a change in perception in the Gaza Strip. Occupation of territory. Security zone. Constant military presence. The Israeli flag that was erected does not come down. And, of course, voluntary migration of the Gaza population to the point of significant dilution of it. These are not things that some defense chiefs would like to hear right now, certainly not the Americans. But the Israeli public is mostly there. Thus the current, original government of 64 seats from right-wing parties, plus members of New Hope and Yisrael Beiteinu, who fully support these ideas.
All the talk about a different, upgraded PA, without Abu Mazen and with other moderate elements in his place, has no cover. There is no such animal. The obsession with transferring civilian control to any foreign entity is what causes rational people, including security personnel, who are prudent and responsible, to invent perverse solutions that stand on chicken knees and, of course, do not last for years.
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Just as the PA does not really control the West Bank, and the only one who is required to enter the West Bank every day is Israel, so it is clear that no PA will control Gaza. Certainly not a moderate element, one that would declare its intention to peace with Israel and reconciliation between the peoples. Gazans want war. This was true before Simchat Torah, and it is even more true after. Only those who express fierce hatred for Israel and a commitment to fight it can win their trust. Everything else - pipe dreams.
Behind bars
The first to start losing patience is Itamar Ben-Gvir. He doesn't want the government to fall, but he won't be dictated how to run his office. When there are mishaps, they come to the minister. That is, he bears responsibility. Because of this, he is also the one who should bear the authority. And the decision whether or not to keep the IPS commissioner in her position is his.
What's more, according to Ben-Gvir, this is a hostile and independent IPS chief, who did not screw up his account from the first moment and even attacked him publicly. When the war began, Ben-Gvir demanded that the conditions of the Nukhba prisoners captured near Gaza on the day of the massacre be compared to the conditions of the Israeli abductees in Gaza as much as possible, and that they be transferred to underground cells. Perry told him there were none. A tour of one of the IPS detention facilities in Israel revealed an underground cell that had been used in the past and had been abandoned in recent years. They handed over their findings to the minister, who quickly wrote Perry an explicit instruction to use the cell and transfer the massacre terrorists to it. Until this moment, Perry had not responded. She certainly didn't move any prisoner there.
This is not the only example. When Hamas prisoners threatened to go on hunger strike because of worsening conditions, Ben-Gvir instructed the High Commissioner not to negotiate with them. In a meeting he held with her, in the presence of senior IPS officials, the minister said that on his watch there would be no dialogue with Hamas terrorists, and that if an uprising broke out in the cells, the service guards had to deal with it with an iron fist. Perry nodded in agreement and said she saw eye to eye on the minister's directive. The very next day it turned out that she had beeped and began to hold a dialogue with the terrorists in order to calm the area.
In a harsh and blunt letter, Perry lashed out at Ben-Gvir and stated that she would not be willing to serve another year under him. A few weeks ago she announced that due to the war she would be willing to consider her position and stay for another year. Ben-Gvir told her this week no thanks. Once again, Perry wrote a blunt letter lashing out at her superior. This did not stop her, instead of putting down the keys and going - to continue fighting for her role fiercely.
According to senior IPS officials, this struggle included an appeal to the commander of the Central District of the service, Gondar Avichai Ben Hamo, in order to take advantage of the fact that he is a close relative of Minister Yifat Shasha-Biton, and to use his connections in the State Camp party to stand on the back foot against Perry's dismissal. An investigation revealed that although the two are close, live next door and are members of each other's households, Ben-Hamo did not approach Shasha-Biton or convey the message to her. The Israel Prison Service said that "there never was and never was."
Yossi Cohen in question
Nir Barkat officially began his campaign for the leadership of the Likud this week. There is no one in the country who has not heard the harsh criticism he voiced on the steps of the defense minister's office in Tel Aviv at the start of the cabinet meeting. "We endanger soldiers unnecessarily," he said, "leadership is tested by the ability to withstand pressure, and unfortunately this cabinet does not withstand the pressure. No consideration justifies risking the lives of our soldiers in the name of some imagined 'morality.' It's wanton management of the war."
A sharp message that reverberates in circulation by the millions marks the beginning of a campaign. The question is whether this campaign did not begin too soon. There are no elections in sight. Not primaries either. No one knows how the war will end. In general, the well-known Likud gut does not like to be attacked in this way, certainly not while he is waging the war.
Barkat said that "leadership is tested by its ability to withstand pressure, and unfortunately this cabinet does not withstand the pressure... It's wanton management of the war." Such a resounding message is the beginning of his campaign for Likud leadership; The question is whether he didn't start it too early
Barkat is not a born Likudnik. In fact, he recently came to the party. It could be a rookie act. For example, the announcements circulated in the NATO diaspora a few hours after that harsh statement to all Likud functionaries: "We, the members of the Likud, strengthen our friend Minister Nir Barkat, who shows courageous leadership and says clearly - we must put an end to the weak conduct of the government and begin to attach more importance to the lives of our soldiers. The blood of our soldiers is not wanton." It is quite clear who is behind them.
Another name that comes up in the context of succession struggles is Yossi Cohen. After it seemed that he was headed for an independent party with an option for connections, it turns out that the former Mossad chief, whose name as the next star of the next elections has already been borne by all, did not fully close the door to joining the Likud. As someone who challenges Netanyahu, Cohen enjoys overwhelming support in the major news studios. But this is a deceptive support. Addictive, but false. All poll analysts admit that the need for the next election is a new right-wing party that will garner the votes of the disillusioned. They hate Netanyahu, Ben-Gvir and Smotrich, but they disavow leftist ideas and concepts.
According to an interview Cohen gave to Meet the Press, it is not certain that he is the address. He was repeatedly asked whether he supported or rejected the two-state plan and Arab control of Gaza after the IDF's withdrawal, and repeatedly refrained from answering. Unlike Netanyahu, whose every word is listened to by the Americans and overseas, Cohen, as a politician in the making and as someone who holds no official position whatsoever, should have been free to express his position clearly and sharply. If he were against the two-state plan, no one would come to him and demand clarification. He is a private person. Right. The fact that he refrains from saying so suspects that there is no correlation between the political need he is "supposed" to fulfill and his opinions. Maximum to please the studio occupants who interview him.
Know where not to go
The picture of Benny Gantz smiling, a glass of whiskey in one hand, hugging Noa Tishbi in the other, scorched the networks and news sites, and drew criticism of the senior minister's participation in the "wartime party." The problem is neither the picture nor the whiskey. Nor is the support for Tishbi, for whose work in Israeli advocacy from her home in California – a difficult and often hostile place – worthy of appreciation.
The problem begins with basic judgment. On the same day, a cabinet meeting was held. Gantz did not appear. A four-hour session dealing with matters directly related to the war, including a two-and-a-half-hour comprehensive review by Gen. Toledano. In response, Gantz and Hili Tropper, who was also missing, said they had met with families. But an examination revealed that the meeting was after the meeting. On that day, a record number of 14 funerals were held – Gantz did not attend any of them.
There was a rabbi. Appreciation is one thing. A bereaved father organizing an event is another matter. But when the apparent nature of the event is that of a cocktail on the roof of a prestigious building, any reasonable person will understand that the invitation must be politely declined. Yair Lapid understood this. The same Lapid, who decided to appoint Tishbi as an official information representative when he was foreign minister, understood that he had nothing to look for in wartime in such an event. So even though he was invited he didn't come. Gantz did not understand, and paid the price. And rightly so.
Unsuccessful investigation
Treasury officials are in distress. The war and its many expenses make it difficult for them to formulate the 2024 budget without overly breaching the deficit framework. So in their distress, they continue to brief their superiors in the media – portraying them as irresponsible, shameless and uncaring politicians.
Recent briefings revealed that Finance Ministry officials are formulating a plan to abolish "ten unnecessary government ministries." A plan that will not be promoted or approved – it is clear that there is no political feasibility for this. However, the plan revealed that it was not the good of the war and its expenses before the eyes of Treasury officials, but rather an attack on the government. Otherwise, they would not have dared to include the Ministry of the Negev and Galilee, the ministry that has perhaps worked the most to inject immediate funds into the authorities since the outbreak of the war.
This week, a researcher for one of the current affairs programs called to invite Minister Yitzhak Wasserlauf to sit in the studio and respond to the claim that his ministry is unnecessary. Wasserlauf pondered and finally replied: If you find one mayor in Israel, only one, who will come for an interview and tell you that the Ministry of the Negev and Galilee is superfluous, I will sit next to him in the studio and resign live. Half an hour later, during which the researcher turned up pottery, she wrote to him dryly: Irrelevant.
Wasserlauf knew that there was no head of such an authority in Israel. On the contrary, only recently, after the Ministry of Finance formulated a plan to transfer half a billion shekels to the development of the western Negev communities, the heads of the local authorities demanded that the money not be transferred through the treasury but through the Ministry of the Negev and Galilee. This is the only firm they trust not to mess up the transfers.
Since the outbreak of the war, the Ministry has focused on direct budgeting to the authorities for emergency needs, as well as growth generators. NIS 66 million was transferred to economically empowering projects that were stuck on the shelf due to lack of budget, NIS 20 million was transferred to attracting advanced industries that created hundreds of quality jobs in the Negev. And all this only from the last few days. Sometimes when you decide to run a campaign, it's worth checking against whom.
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