At the start of the 13th week of the war, Israel is waging a super-complex and explosive multi-front campaign, willingly tied. Instead of throwing all its resources into the campaign and putting all other considerations aside, Israel is re-drowning in the political bloodshed that threatened to drown it by October 7. There is no shortage of evidence of this, but the most recent – the postponement of the discussion of the "day after" of the Gaza war – is particularly outrageous. It means that the integrity and future of the country are less important than the integrity and future of the coalition.
The Political-Security Cabinet, Photo: Amos Ben Gershom/GPO
This discussion is important for three reasons. The first is that Israel needs to shape its future with its own hands, and not wait for things to happen or for someone to lead it to an unwanted corner. The second is that such a discussion is important for the partners – first and foremost the United States, but also European countries and some countries in the region – which give us vital backing in the campaign. The third is that the IDF will not know how to conduct the campaign without being told where it must end up.
It's so elementary that by virtue of the absence of such a discussion, one can conclude that those who don't have such a discussion don't understand anything about strategy, or don't care what happens here in the future. Since Benjamin Netanyahu understands strategy and it is reasonable to assume that our future is important to him, it remains only to say that he is a willing captive in the hands of Messianics and extremists, who lead the country and its future along a dangerous path.
Ministers Smotrich Ben-Gvir. Leading the country's future on a dangerous path, photo: Oren Ben Hakon
As usual, Netanyahu hopes things will work out for him up the road. It is doubtful whether this will happen this time in the face of the multitude of arenas and threats, and the truth is that it doesn't matter either. Faced with the brazen threat of Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir to dissolve the government in the middle of the war, he had to present a clear answer: Go, no one will threaten the State of Israel with war. Certainly not her own ministers. You can talk about everything – you have to talk about everything – but you can't put a gun to the state's temple while its enemies are fighting it.
Unfortunately, Netanyahu fears his partners and does not act as required. In so doing, it increases their extortion and, worse, weakens Israel. It is impossible to wage such a complex and bloody campaign in the south without a clear strategy on every possible issue: abductees, refugees, humanitarians, days of combat and weapons, as well as the issue of the day after. It is impossible to wage a parallel campaign in the north without a strategy that clarifies where we are going and how to get there, and what price they are usually willing to pay vis-à-vis all parties – from Hezbollah and Syria to Iran.
Drone display of Iran. Motivation was not affected, Photo: AFP
In the absence of strategies, Israel operates on the operational-tactical floor. It has recorded quite a few successes in Gaza and in the north: the attack yesterday morning on the Syrian-Iraqi border attributed to Israel disrupted the smuggling of weapons from Iran to Hezbollah, as a continuation of a series of attacks carried out in recent days against arms shipments in Damascus. It seems that after the air route was disrupted, Iran tried to reactivate the damaged land route. Still, Israel is not succeeding in harming Iranian motivations, and its harm to Iranian protégés is limited and will not change the reality in the north.
As a continuation of its cowardice to hold in-depth discussions, the government is afraid to tell the truth to the public. For example, the IDF will not remain in Gaza in its current format for long, but will change a format (and to be precise: several formats) as part of the continuation of the campaign. Or that most residents of the south can already return to their homes because the threat to them has become minimal, but that even in the foreseeable future there will probably be sporadic rockets that make it forbidden to continue shutting down a significant part of the economy.
Or that there is currently no successful solution to Hezbollah's presence on the fence in the north that does not include a broad war, and therefore it is possible that an interim political-temporary solution will be achieved, alongside which the IDF will remain with large forces along the border, all in order to allow most residents of the north to return to their homes. Or that the economic situation is difficult and requires extensive decrees, in order to prevent collapse.
The Lebanese border, photo: AFP
The government avoids all these obvious statements. Instead, it instills illusions and, above all, continues to engage in politics. US President Joe Biden said it clearly to Netanyahu: While he, Biden, is paying a heavy price for Israel in his own home, in an election year, Netanyahu refuses to pay a political price here in Israel.
The problem is that at some point these statements may be replaced by actions, and then Israel will deal with putting out fires or reach the same point under less favorable conditions. This is exactly what happened to her on the issue of the abductees: If the plan in question now is implemented, Israel will pay a higher price than it could have paid a month or two ago for those released.
Henry Kissinger, the late U.S. Secretary of State, once said that Israel has no foreign policy, only a domestic policy. This was true then, and unfortunately it is true today, in multiples, because in addition to being preoccupied only with small politics, Israel also has no strategy, only tactics – and it is liable to pay a price for it.
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