Oppenheimer discusses Russia's invasion of Ukraine 3:09
(CNN) --
As the world's attention turns to the escalating crisis between Russia and Ukraine, the spotlight is also turning to an island on the other side of the world: Taiwan.
At first glance, there may be parallels: both Taiwan and Ukraine are pro-Western democracies whose
status quo
could be disrupted by powerful autocracies.
Image shows empty airspace over Ukraine and its border with Russia
In the case of Taiwan, the Communist Party of China seeks an eventual "reunification" with the island that claims as part of its territory despite never having governed it, and has not ruled out doing so by force.
In the case of Ukraine, that threat is developing: Russian President Vladimir Putin has said he regards Russians and Ukrainians as "one people," and it remains unclear how far he will go to make that claim a reality. : This Monday declared two territories split from Ukraine and supported by Moscow as independent republics.
World leaders themselves have hinted at connections between the destinations of Ukraine and Taiwan in recent weeks.
The eyes in Ukraine, but also in China and Taiwan
Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen has said that Taiwan could "empathize" with the situation in Ukraine, given its experience with "military threats and intimidation from China."
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In the West, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said this Saturday that "the echoes" of what happens in Ukraine "will be heard in Taiwan", while the US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, on a trip to Australia earlier this month, said obliquely that "others are watching" the Western response to Russia, "even if it is half a world away in Europe."
Concerns have grown in recent years that an entrenched China under Xi Jinping's leadership could make a bold move to seize control of Taiwan, and Beijing is likely watching the situation in Ukraine carefully to see how Western powers respond. , and how severe those responses are.
The United States, the United Kingdom, the European Union, Canada, Australia and Japan have announced economic sanctions to punish Moscow following Putin's moves earlier this week.
But the parallels are limited, and so is the fact that Beijing may take advantage of the spiraling crisis in Ukraine for future action toward Taiwan.
Everything you need to know about the dispute between Taiwan and China
"The US response to Ukraine is not going to be the same as the one to Taiwan, because the way the US has built its relationship with Taiwan over decades is different than its responsibilities to Ukraine, the European Union or NATO," said Lev Nachman, a postdoctoral researcher at Harvard University's Fairbank Center for Chinese Studies.
"Although (Beijing) will continue to closely watch how the world reacts to the invasion and a possible redrawing of borders, which will likely influence Beijing's own geopolitical calculus, it is highly unlikely that Beijing will drastically alter its strategy towards Taiwan because of Ukraine," said Nachman, who focuses on Taiwan politics.
Tensions between China and Taiwan are the worst in 40 years 6:46
Similarly, pundits have dismissed the idea that US attention to Europe might give China an opportunity to act on Taiwan.
These fears are compounded by Moscow's increasingly close ties with Beijing.
"I don't think the Chinese will use force against Taiwan this year... (Xi) doesn't really want to take any chances," said Steve Tsang, director of the SOAS China Institute at the University of London, pointing to the National Congress of the Communist Party. , to be held in October, in which Xi is widely expected to secure a historic third term in power.
"An unsuccessful military venture won't do his third term much good, and a failure could derail him," Tsang added.
The unique dynamic between the United States and China also complicates any attempt to compare Ukraine and Taiwan.
China is the US's most formidable long-term rival and the only country that can challenge US interests across the board and around the world, said David Sacks, a fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York. York.
"If China were to take control of Taiwan, this would more than anything help it establish regional hegemony. Chinese leaders understand that the stakes are different for the United States and their response would probably be very different," he said.
The "people's republics"
China is also in an awkward position following Russia's recognition on Monday of two Moscow-backed breakaway territories of Ukraine as independent states, the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic and the Luhansk People's Republic.
Ukrainians use the subway as a shelter 3:44
The move was criticized by the United Nations and other world leaders as a violation of Ukrainian sovereignty, with Putin responding that the situation "is different" from other former Soviet states, as Ukraine was being "used" by foreign nations. to threaten Russia.
China has been sympathetic to Russian concerns about the NATO security threat, as the two countries have presented an increasingly united front against what they see as Western interference in their internal affairs and a threat to their security.
This association was publicly reinforced just a few weeks ago at a summit between Xi and Putin.
But China has long based its foreign policy on the unconditional defense of state sovereignty and the denunciation of what it considers foreign interference within its own borders.
Beijing has also taken sweeping steps, including what the international community has called major human rights violations, to combat what it sees as separatist threats, whether in Hong Kong, Xinjiang or Tibet.
Hua Chunying, Chinese deputy foreign minister, denied on Wednesday that Beijing has taken a position on Ukraine that contradicts its principle of respecting national sovereignty and territorial integrity.
Such claims had "an ulterior motive or deliberately distorted things," she told a regular news conference.
USA, on alert for possible Russian cyberattacks 1:27
The day before, the Foreign Ministry was quick to distinguish between the situation in Ukraine and that in Taiwan, when asked if there were any parallels.
"I would like to stress that there is only one China, and Taiwan is an inalienable part of Chinese territory. This is an indisputable historical and legal fact. The one-China principle is a universally recognized norm governing international relations," the spokesperson said. Wang Wenbin, referring to Beijing's principle that there is only one China on both sides of the Taiwan Strait.
Mainland China and Taiwan have been governed separately since the end of China's civil war more than 70 years ago, when defeated nationalists retreated to the island.
So far, Beijing has urged restraint and called for dialogue in response to this week's developments in Ukraine.
With its own agendas and ongoing relationship with Russia, how China reacts to Ukraine will be a difficult balancing act, one that its leaders will likely tread carefully, Harvard's Nachman said.
"China is trying its best not to take a strong stance in support of Russia and at the same time push for peace and diplomacy (in Ukraine)," he said.
This tells us that China is not going to match Russia's level of aggression (on Taiwan), at least for now."
With information from Eric Cheung and CNN's Beijing bureau.
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