In light of yesterday, there was a tectonic shock in the international system, the ink of which is expected to provoke chain reactions, which will dramatically change the nature of the world order whose foundations were cast with the collapse of the Soviet empire in 1991.
For, if in previous crises (including Georgia in 2008, and the Crimea and eastern Ukraine in 2014), the Kremlin leader Putin acted in a relatively controlled manner in his efforts to challenge American hegemony in Central and Eastern Europe, this time deviating from his custom and initiating a total invasion of sovereign state In the style of the Soviet attack on Afghanistan in December 1979.
President Joe Biden, Photo: AP
This is to bring about the overthrow of the regime in Kiev and thereby crush the sovereignty of Ukraine as an independent state.
This is a blatant, forceful and violent statement, signaling that Russia's goal is not limited to controlling the whole of Ukraine, but is anchored in its desire to intimidate other independent states such as Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia and Poland. The West.
President Vladimir Putin, Photo: IPI
This massive use of force was intended, therefore, to halt this process of assimilation into the Western bloc, forcing them to adopt a orientation of distinct neutrality, such as that adopted by Finland's lack of choice in the Cold War (Finlandization).
In other words, it is the watershed that is supposed to be, in Putin's view, the catalyst in the path of Moscow becoming the dominant power in Europe, thus returning in the time tunnel to its heyday as the hegemonic power in the region.
To understand the Kremlin's decision to deviate from its initial "operational code," it is appropriate to turn the spotlight on the American superpower, whose weaknesses and failures in Iraq, Syria, and Afghanistan have given Russian control the window of opportunity to destroy, in one fell swoop, the foundation on which norms of conduct rest. In the contemporary world.
Specifically, the Kremlin's aspiration to "restore the crown to its former glory" and challenge the existing world and European order gradually became a long-term visionary goal for a real goal within reach as the 46th president's incredible weakness became clearer. "Hard power" as a tool in American strategy.
It was the convergence of the United States within itself and its denial of its leadership role that motivated the Russian opponent to pounce on the prey that had long been lurking in Ukraine.
The fact that the first round of sanctions, declared by the White House, was quite milky, gave the Kremlin the "green light" to continue its aggression and even to initiate extensive and brutal escalation moves.
Biden's speech to the nation on Tuesday, in which he imposed a package of sanctions on Moscow on the banking and financial front, was also light years away from conveying determination and determination in the face of the escalating threat.
The pyramid of power was overturned
Moreover, in stark contrast to the reassuring leadership the American eagle has repeatedly demonstrated during the Cold War, when it managed to mobilize its NATO partners for bold containment moves (such as operating the air train for about a year, which eventually broke the ground siege imposed on West Berlin by the USSR). 1948), this time the creators were overturned, and the nominal apex of the world power pyramid seems to have been reluctantly dragged into taking escalating punitive measures by some, at least, its European partners like Britain under the aggressive leadership of Boris Johnson, and as EU leaders.
Convoys of the Ukrainian army in the capital Kiev, Photo: AFP
Thus, although Biden last night announced another and extensive package of harsh and painful sanctions, the question arises as to what other effective levers of pressure and enforcement will remain in the decay of the fading bishop.
The eagle has become a pet
Indeed, the days passed when the sole superpower safely led a cohesive coalition that operated successfully in Serbia, Bosnia and Libya.
Thus, the question arises as to whether in the face of the eagle becoming a pet the Kremlin would not be tempted to initiate even more ambitious moves and try to return Europe directly to the beginning of the Cold War era, in which it ruled with an iron hand over its satellite countries in Eastern and Central Europe?
time will tell.
In any case, it is clear that the time has come for those sitting in the Oval Office to get up from the boards and demonstrate leadership before it is too late.
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