"I don't think Putin wants all of Sweden, but...": Russia connoisseurs expect more attacks

Created: 03/06/2022, 21:22

By: Marcus Mäckler

Vladimir Putin at an EU-Russia summit in Brussels in early 2014.

© Delmi Alvarez/zumapress/imago stock&people

Philosopher and Russia expert Vittorio Hösle warned against Putin back in 2015.

Now he wants to continue shaking up Western politicians - an interview.

Munich - The Ukraine war was a rude awakening for many politicians.

Philosopher Vittorio Hösle has been warning of Vladimir Putin's plans for some time.

In an interview with the

, he firmly expects further attacks - and does not rule out Russian ambitions on EU territories.

The situation is already highly dangerous for the European Union, warns Hösle.

Historical omissions also play a role.

For example by former Chancellor Angela Merkel.

"What is happening in Russia now was predictable in many respects."

Professor Hösle, Russia is at war in Europe.

You warned early on...

In an essay from 2015, I was criticized as a scaremonger.

What's happening now was predictable in many ways, but we just didn't want to believe it.

Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer was right when she recently spoke of a historic failure.

How could we be so deceived?

Look, when British intelligence warned Moscow in 1941 that a German attack on the Soviet Union was imminent, Stalin just laughed.

He thought: The Germans can't be that stupid.

He was greatly mistaken.

Knowing history, it is utterly wrong to believe that states do not begin with megalomaniacal military ventures.    

It was believed that Vladimir Putin ruled in an authoritarian but rational manner.

It is irrational to assume that all people are rational.

Russia is building on an enormous nostalgia, it has not gotten over the loss of the empire.

Putin's speeches bear witness to this, but not only his.

In 2013, a friend sent me a text from Dmitry Rogozin, who was Deputy Prime Minister at the time.

It was an incendiary speech in which Rogozin openly said that now was the time to regain Soviet territory.

Then came the annexation of Crimea.

To person:

Vittorio Hösle (61) is a German-Italian philosopher.

He has taught at the University of Notre Dame, Indiana, for over 20 years.

His work focuses on political philosophy.

In his essay "Macht und Expansion", which appeared in the "Blätter für deutsche und Internationale Politik" in 2015, Hösle argued that Putin's Russia was more dangerous than the Soviet Union of the 1970s.

Russia also plays a role in his book Global Centrifugal Forces, in which Hösle deals with the decline of liberalism.

Ukraine war: "The biggest mistake was not having helped the Russians financially in the 1990s"

The West was taken by surprise.

But everything was open on the table.

It's like with Hitler: Anyone who reads "Mein Kampf" knows what this man is planning.

Europe's politicians have let themselves be thrown in the dust when it comes to Russia because, among other things, it would have been uncomfortable in terms of social policy to draw conclusions earlier.

And because few understood what makes Russia tick.

How does it tick?

For the power elite there, everything is geopolitics.

One of the most successful books in Russia in recent years has been Alexander Dugin's Fundamentals of Geopolitics, which is used to train the General Staff.

It says very clearly: the aim of Russian geopolitics must be to regain the old empire – and to transform the EU into a territory dependent on Russia.

The Russians want their zone of influence back.

Haven't we also made mistakes in dealing with Russia?

We sure made a lot of mistakes.

The biggest was not helping the Russians better financially in the 1990s, but that wasn't enforceable at the time.

In my opinion, the other big mistake happened in 1993. At that time, the Russian parliament voted President Boris Yeltsin out of office, completely in accordance with the constitution, and his deputy came into office.

Yeltsin and the parliament had fallen out at war over his economic reforms...

After he was deposed, Yeltsin brought up tanks and fired on the Russian parliament - to great applause from the West.

His vice-president was a communist and it was understandable that he was not wanted as president.

But with this act, the West has made it clear to the Russians that whoever has power must not let go of it – even if it means shooting parliament to pieces.

Ukraine war: Vittorio Hösle, political philosopher, has been warning of Putin's policies since 2015.

© fkn

Ukraine: "Putin will attack Moldova, Georgia is also possible"    

Was that the birth of the Putin system?

He followed right after Yeltsin.

In any case, since Putin it has been clear that a change of government is no longer possible.

All the talk of a Russian democracy was always absurd, the country is obviously not capable of democracy.

That's unfortunate, but the reality.

There were other mistakes made by the West: the Iraq war, a US eyesore that showed the Russians that the others don't take international law seriously either.

And now the weakness of the West.

A moment like the storming of the US Capitol a year ago signaled to the Russians: now is the time to strike.

So you also believe that Putin's fear of NATO is a bogus argument?

Putin is not afraid of NATO, but of democracy spilling over.

With the election of Volodymyr Zelenskyy as President of Ukraine, there has been a peaceful change of power for the first time in the history of an East Slavic country.

In Belarus, the people wanted to follow a similar path.

The country is now effectively occupied by Russia.

Dictator Alexander Lukashenko recently changed the constitution, the Kremlin can now even station soldiers and nuclear missiles in Belarus.  

Will Putin settle for Ukraine?

I do not believe that.

He will use extreme brutality to take Kyiv and then possibly install a puppet government.

After that, Putin will reach out to Moldova, where Russian troops are already stationed in the east.

It is conceivable that he will also bring Georgia home. 

Do you think it is realistic that he would attack NATO countries, such as the Baltic States?

You know, Putin has a thing for symbolism.

A major exhibition is currently being organized in St. Petersburg about Peter the Great, who is also called "the Great" because he brought the Baltic States back to Russia.

Vladimir the Great sees himself as the heir of Peter the Great.

It's not at all unlikely that that's on his agenda.

Russia concern: "Don't think Putin wants all of Sweden, but he would like Gotland"

How could he do it?

I'm not a military expert, but look at Sweden.

The country is not in NATO and has been extremely concerned for months.

Conscription has been reintroduced, and the population is continuously being prepared for a possible invasion.

I don't think Putin wants all of Sweden, but he would like to have Gotland.

Whoever controls Gotland controls the Baltic Sea.

If the Kremlin wants to attack the Baltic States from land and sea, Gotland would be very useful.    

This week Russian jets entered Swedish airspace over Gotland.

I wouldn't be at all surprised if Putin did this just to test what the EU is doing.

According to the Lisbon Treaty, it is obliged to help its members in the event of an attack, but militarily it is not in a position to do so.

This is extremely dangerous.

Things aren't quite going according to Putin's plan at the moment.

Does Ukraine have a chance?

I want to emphatically say how much I admire Ukraine.

They are not only defending their freedom, but the freedom of all of us.

Militarily, the Russians are vastly superior, but many of these young soldiers are obviously not trained enough for such a mission.

On the Ukrainian side, on the other hand, there is infinite motivation.

My faint hope is that we will see something like 1939 when Stalin attacked Finland.

The Finns fought like lions and in the end had to give up a piece of territory.

But they remained independent.

Vladimir Putin's war: "Mrs. Merkel misjudged the Russian problem"

You live in the United States, where there are many Putin fans, especially among Trump supporters.

What would happen if Trump were re-elected in this world situation?

That would be horrible, but it's totally conceivable.

It is therefore extremely important that Europe finally develops a common foreign and security policy.

At the same time, it will not be possible to do without a joint nuclear deterrent.

You see, Mrs. Merkel was a highly intelligent, disciplined and incorruptible person.

But it misjudged the Russian problem, increased energy dependency on Russia, and did nothing to push the EU further.

The decisive factor now is whether the EU constitutes itself as a powerful federal state when it can no longer count on the protection of the USA.

You don't sound that optimistic...

Antonio Gramsci, the famous Italian Marxist, used to say: when we do theory we have to be pessimists because we have to see reality as it is.

But if we act, we must be optimistic.

So I hope that my pessimistic theses will inspire optimistic politicians.

Interview: Marcus Maeckler