At 33 days from the first round, the President of the Republic benefits greatly from his posture as a warlord in the face of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.
Also five days after his candidacy announcement, Emmanuel Macron progresses by 8.5 points to rise to 33.5% of intentions to vote, according to an Elabe study for BFMTV and L'Express, published Tuesday evening.
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An almost unprecedented level for a candidate for the supreme office, which is more for an outgoing president.
By way of comparison, and although a poll remains a photograph of public opinion at a given moment and is in no way a prediction, the Head of State is getting closer to the score achieved by François Mitterrand in the first round of the 1988 presidential election: 34.10%.
Returning to the electoral arena at the last moment, Thursday March 3, the President of the Republic keeps a low profile and does not lead, international context obliges, a campaign drum beating.
An annoying overhead posture for his opponents, but which seems to push the French to rally behind the head of state in times of crisis.
What the director general of Ifop Frédéric Dabi calls the “flag effect”.
Mélenchon, third man
In second position, 18.5 points later, Marine Le Pen fell to 15% (-2).
If the contender of the RN qualifies for the second round against Emmanuel Macron, she seems to suffer from the context and from a campaign where she is unable for the moment to anchor her speech in public opinion.
Behind the nationalist candidate, is Jean-Luc Mélenchon at 13% (+0.5), who would therefore occupy third place in this presidential election.
The Insoumis thus benefits from the reflex of the “useful vote” in a scattered and electorally fragmented left.
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While they were still arguing a few weeks ago for qualification for the second round with Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour (11% -3) and Valérie Pécresse (10.5%, -1.5) retreat and find themselves respectively in fourth and fifth position.
The boss of Reconquête surely pays for his mistakes on the reception of Ukrainian refugees in France and his former leniency vis-à-vis Vladimir Putin.
As for the leader of the right who accumulates blunders in her communication, she is unable to revive herself against an Emmanuel Macron who recovers part of his electorate.
On the left, finally, no contender crosses the 10% mark.
The ecologist Yannick Jadot drops to 5% (-1.5), like the communist Fabien Roussel to 3.5% (-0.5).
As for Anne Hidalgo, it remains stable at 1.5%.
With more than a month to go before the first round, many national or international events can still impact the course of the campaign.
And therefore have an impact on the choice of the French on April 10.
